Sunday Times7 Jul 2019 10:30
Lovelorn ITV needs to find a match
Connoisseurs say this year’s Love Island has been particularly lachrymose. Air hostess Amy was distraught after being dumped by dancer Curtis; beautician Amber was outraged by the infidelities of fireman Michael. The course of reality TV never did run smooth.
Love Island has been a rare success for its maker and broadcaster, but it’s ITV’s share price over the past 18 months that has been the real tear-jerker: since Dame Carolyn McCall arrived it has fallen by a third to 111p. ITV’s two main businesses, its broadcasting platform and its content-producing studios, are both under pressure, as advertisers cut back and Silicon Valley giants pump billions of dollars into new shows. Might this be fertile ground for an activist investor? City gossip doing the rounds last week suggested that at least one has looked at building a stake. ITV is approaching a crossroads. It turned over £2.1bn last year from broadcasting, with its share of TV viewing rising to 23% — the highest since 2005. Advertising revenues were up slightly to £1.8bn, but the long-term outlook is gloomy. Enders Analysis expects total TV ad revenues to fall by 3% this year as buyers pinch pennies ahead of a possible no-deal Brexit in October. ITV’s revenues were a lot worse in the first quarter, declining by 7%.
ITV Studios turned over £1.7bn thanks to programmes such as Vanity Fair — made in collaboration with Amazon — but performed poorly in America, which is ominous given the competition. Netflix, Amazon and Disney are sinking billions into new productions, buying up talent and facilities. Netflix struck an exclusive deal last week to lease London’s Shepperton Studios for 10 years. In an era when even giants such as Comcast and Disney have decided they need greater scale to survive, ITV — market capitalisation £4.5bn — looks unviable as a standalone company.
Under previous boss Adam Crozier, ITV flirted with a £1bn takeover of Entertainment One, owner of Peppa Pig, but the gambit fell down over price. One of McCall’s first moves was to explore a bid for Endemol, maker of The Fall, but she eventually decided against it. ITV is now pinning some of its hopes on BritBox, the defensive streaming platform it is belatedly launching with the BBC. The Beeb is providing classic shows to BritBox, but no hard cash. BritBox is riddled with potential problems. The modest amount of money earmarked by ITV so far — £65m — is unlikely to result in a slick service that will entice viewers to pay, but betting more on the unknown would be risky. Even addicted households have just 1.4 subscriptions on average — and hardly ever watch the second (they tend to have signed up to Amazon Prime more for its speedy delivery). Persuading them to buy a third is a big ask. And BritBox will be predominantly archive material, so it will be unable to charge a premium price. Tinkering like this is not going to save ITV. In a rapidly consolidating industry, it needs a transforma