Member Info for NigeCo

Good news, investors! ITV is still a bargain right now. My valuation model shows that the intrinsic value for the stock is £1.92, which is above what the market is valuing the company at the moment. This indicates a potential opportunity to buy low. ITV’s share price also seems relatively stable compared to the rest of the market, as indicated by its low beta. If you believe the share price should eventually reach its true value, a low beta could suggest it is unlikely to rapidly do so anytime soon, and once it’s there, it may be hard to fall back down into an attractive buying range.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-1-26-itv-plc-085321496.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAENTXKiVZ2CNTqupAKDeMXp7aR314fF2DmVEepHNfLDb1qRkvjCd0pmVcTua2dOiaRHx5Q1v1J-5DegyffS5WkKXHUrwEktDWVmxEjEgAKV2QVDJBCswEd_Hf88dssn7CRiUT3G5yYBWNRYI8jdkomvjpHLRQCaDtT4-MkU6wz0y

Large sell trades at a big discount @119p sale price of 8 million shares between the times of 15:36 and 15:44, just like what happened when Woodford sold out earlier. It's either Woodford or Tinkler, both hold 5%. Someone took a hit on the price sold @119p at the time the bid and offer price were 124.20p and 125.00p.

starts today, live and free on ITV.

Even the bears are having to admit defeat. ITV are only at this price 126p because of all the Brexit uncertainties and very weak pound over the past 3 years. Once Brexit or sorted out. ITV share price will recover.

Still waiting on news regarding the sale of South Bank site, and possible SDN sale.

So true Dallo,

It fooled me, but I'm no accountant. I'll look further into the accounts. Cheers.

Agreed Dallo,

Not forgetting that SDN is a non-core asset, that only contributes to 7% of earnings, yet potentially worth £1.1bln. A little gem that most people didn't even know about. Myself included.

The more I read regarding the potential of Britbox, the more value I see I see in ITV.
The future is all good. JMO.

"We’re not Netflix, we’re not Spotify. We’re not Apple News. We’re so much more than all of them put together."

Love it.

BBC Chief Tony Hall....
"The director general will argue next week that established streamers will need to “fight harder than ever” as the new players pull their content from Netflix and Amazon to populate their own soon-to-launch streamers."

“No one offers the range of content, in so many genres, on so many platforms, as the BBC. We’re not Netflix, we’re not Spotify. We’re not Apple News. We’re so much more than all of them put together. The established streamers may need to fight harder to offer the value they currently give today.”

Will this result in a scramble for content? content is king and Britbox have it.
Bring it on.

BBC Chief Tony Hall say's Streamers are in for choppy waters.

The “second wave of disruption” kickstarted by the launch of Disney, Apple and Warner Media’s streaming services will damage Netflix rather than the BBC, according to Tony Hall.

The director general will argue next week that established streamers will need to “fight harder than ever” as the new players pull their content from Netflix and Amazon to populate their own soon-to-launch streamers.

Hall will make his case during a keynote at Thursday’s RTS Cambridge Convention, referring to the soon-to-come sweeping change as the “disruption of the disrupters”.

We’re not Netflix, we’re not Spotify. We’re not Apple News. We’re so much more than all of them put together.

While Netflix and Amazon are suffering, he will say the BBC can use the opportunity to make the case for the corporation’s public service principles and vast array of content.

“In this market, services that are distinctive and different will stand out,” he will say.

“No one offers the range of content, in so many genres, on so many platforms, as the BBC. We’re not Netflix, we’re not Spotify. We’re not Apple News. We’re so much more than all of them put together.

“The established streamers may need to fight harder to offer the value they currently give today.”

Apple TV+ will launch in the UK in November while Disney+ is likely to launch here in 2020.

Meanwhile, the BBC and ITV are launching ‘best of British’ SVoD BritBox later this year. Hall and ITV chief executive Carolyn McCall recently indicated they would pull shows from SVoDs in order to populate the service, in a similar vein to the US giants.

Turning to VoD service iPlayer, Hall will point to a one-third uplift in views over the past year and state that a raft of new features are set to launch in the coming months.

The iPlayer window is also soon to be extended from 30 days to one year for the vast majority of series, with Ofcom recently greenlighting the BBC’s controversial plans.

Hall will deliver his speech just a few hours prior to Netflix chief executive Reed Hasting’s highly anticipated RTS keynote address.

"I expect a rapid run-up to my first target area at around the 250p zone. The recent low at 159p should hold but, if not, I would consider moves under this area as an even better opportunity to catch the bottom of red wave 2 that should lead to a 'long and strong' wave 3 up. I have a higher target at 340p."

FULL ARTICLE https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/chart-week-are-bt-shares-set-rally-ii509201

Liberum comment...."There is no doubt that SDN’s value is hidden at the moment within ITV. The ITV share price certainly does not reflect the value of the £1.1bn asset and SDN gains very little attention from either analysts or investors."

After reading the full analyst report yesterday from Liberum, I'm very happy with their report. Well done to Liberum for their excellent analysis, and also Alan for posting the well informed report. Cheers.

Fingers crossed Solley. You have to be in it, to win it. GL

Yes well done Allan. Thanks for the link mate. Much appreciated.

https://liberum.s3.amazonaws.com/ITV_BUY_TP_180p_SDN_a_hidden_gem_15_pgs.pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAICKLXNJJPOVS4TPQ%2F20190916%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20190916T000000Z&X-Amz-Expires=86400&X-Amz-Signature=bd4cb72388b5c328fedc2f0fc4ac554434db74e92c8476c62cf2b43a5e66fb20&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host

SDN, a hidden gem

Last year ITV announced that it would sell off its South Bank site, rather than press ahead with a redevelopment, a move that press reports have suggested could raise £150m. If it wanted to raise further funds, another option would be to sell off its SDN business. We see this as non-core but think it could raise from c. £750m to £1bn. ITV could use that cash to reduce debt, make strategic acquisitions - with the purchase of STV being one option - and even return left-over proceeds to shareholders. Reiterate BUY.

A sale makes sense
SDN sits as a non-core asset and has little in common with ITV’s strategy of growing new streams of revenues. A sale may unlock £750mn-1bn not currently reflected in the share price.

Buyers fit
We highlight Arqiva, private equity, or other European towers as potential buyers to consolidate the market in addition to private equity houses given the high margins.

Proceeds for buyback
ITV has many options in how to deploy the cash, including paying down debt, a strategic acquisition of STV or a £500m buyback which would be 4% accretive in FY19E.

Valuation
Shares trade on 9.0x FY19E, which we believe is a discount for a best in class content distributor and producer. Our 180p Target Price is based on a DCF.

Agreed Davielad,

No doubt that the two deals are in the pipeline. And a confirmation RNS will be released soon.

With no RNS regarding the recent broker speculation regarding the sale of assets, the share price heads south again down currently 2.85p.

I was always a little apprehensive regarding the speculation because it was from broker Liberum, who are always bullish on ITV. Obviously Liberum have heard something. Liberum claimed that ITV had sold Southbank for over £200 million, yet we have no RNS to confirm this. If this was the case ITV would have released a RNS today, and so far they haven't. Disappointed to say the least.

"These 3 investors control the destiny of ITV and are not impressed with the SP and management according to my senior
contact in London. Apparently this is common knowledge in the City and not as such surprising."

Good to know that you have a contact with his/her ear to the ground Dallo.
Does your contact have an opinion regarding what the outcome will be with ITV? What chances of a takeover bid?
Thanks in advance.

Not forgetting the 20% that Goldman Sachs holds on behalf of a client. Who is this client? Mr Malone I would guess.

Any bid may well lead to a bun fight, that could result in a 200p plus takeout price. Interesting times ahead.

Good point Dallo,

Is McCall and her BOD selling assets off in some kind of defence against an expected takeover offer?
Raising cash in hope of fending off a bid? With some kind of reward for shareholders with a special dividend. I cannot see McCall having a strong hand against a cash offer of 40%-50% offer on the current 126p ITV share price.

Let's hope that we have some confirmation news this week, with an RNS announcement regarding SDN, and the sale of Southbank site for over £200 million.