Member Info for NigeCo

"Kepler Cheuveraux downgraded ITV from buy to hold but....wait for it....INCREASED their price target from 130p to 150p."

Agreed Dallo,

You just couldn't make it up mate.

"When a company like itv takes money for brexit ad then blame brexit for not growing ad revenue then something is wrong."

Hi H-hi,

With respect mate, ITV have been complaining about Brexit effecting advertising for the past 2 to 3 years, well before the recent government advertising, about the lead up to the Brexit that wasn't, being the 31st Oct.

ITV have just announced the sale of it's Southbank property for £145.6mln, with some of the proceeds used to almost wipe out it's £105mln pension deficit, that now stands at only £2mln. Once ITV renew's it's license for SDN, Liberum's valuation of SDN is between £800mln and £1bln. This could almost wipe out ITV's Net Debt that currently stands at £1,167mln. Also in the pipeline is the SKY re-transmission deal (thanks Dallo). Plus the start of Britbox. I see a lot of positives in ITV who have already confirmed their dividend going forward. A swift Conservative win in the December election, that should result with a conclusion to Brexit that could see ITV share price re-rated IMHO.

13 Nov ITV PLC Goldman Sachs old price target 124p new price target 140p Reiterates Neutral.

I think that we can blame GS for the fall in the ITV share price today. We can always rely on GS to stick the boot in.

Good buying opportunity, I think that the share price will recover throughout the day. JMO

You have eyes like a hawk 5eights, well spotted mate.

IMHO, FWIW, It is just a matter of time before ITV breaks through the 140p resistance, 140p then should become support. Onward's and upwards he say's with his fingers crossed.

Broker Liberum Capital have reiterated their BUY rating on ITV with an increase in their target price from 145p to 180p.

"A successful renegotiation of the SDN licence could add another 20p+ to the share price as it would copperfasten a valuation of the SDN business at £800 m or more So a lot of hidden gems still under the mattress and may be revealed soon."

Agreed Dallo,

The bonus is knowing about these hidden gems, that Carolyn McCall has well hidden under the mattress.
The true ITV value will be out one day. I just don't know when that day will be. I'm happy to hold on to my holding with a tight fist.

Hi H-hi,

I was only thinking the other day when it was mentioned that ITV through Britbox my bid for the football Champions League TV rights. I then thought that maybe ITV would possibly team up with BT. Any thoughts on this?

Advertising should pick up in Q4 with the government Brexit advertising and the Rugby World Cup.
Good news that the pension deficit dropped from £105mln to only £2mln.
Bad news Net Debt increased from £1,082mln to £1,167mln
I'm happy with the results. The value is in the ITV content, going forward I'm confident that someone will want this undervalued asset.

Thanks for that 5eights,

Do you happen to have the headline of the FT article? If so, I would see if I can find it. Cheers mate.

"So I'm keen to see the updates (next week most likely) for the future 3 years forecasts"

Hi again Velo,

Yes I'm also looking forward to next weeks updates, if indeed it is next week. You're certainly on the ball Velo with your analysis, ahead of the chasing pack. Lol

I would also agree with you regarding " Net profit after tax" it's number that pays the bills.

I forgot to say in my last post regarding what attracted me to VOD in the first place back in 2009, it was VOD's 45% shareholding in Verizon Wireless in the USA, this being their jewel in the crown. What attracts me to BT is Openreach. Once BT complete their fibre build out, BT profits and share price will fly. Just my opinion of cause, I could be wrong, but I have put my money where my mouth is and intend reinvesting BT dividends back into BT, just like I did all thous years ago with VOD. Time will tell if I'm right or wrong.

Keep the updates coming Velo, It's always a pleasure reading your well informed comments. Cheers mate.

"BT's fwd P/E ratio is 7.88.............. VOD a fwd P/E of 19.2

Hi Velo,

Thank you for confirming what I thought that I already knew above with your excellent post, regarding the forward pe ratio's of both BT and VOD.

I was invested in VOD for 7 years. I bought VOD on 21/5/2009 @116p and invested all future VOD dividends back into VOD, I sold them on 20/5/2016 @230p my best trade to date. I made a killing. The reason for me selling all my VOD holding was down to the VOD dividend wasn't covered by profits, plus a high pe.

I purchased BT 15 months ago at 217p and this week doubled up at just under 195p, (my timing could have been better when BT dropped down to 160p). My average price now stands at 206.85p. Including dividends already received, this bring it down further to 194.22p. I feel more comfortable being in BT with a low pe than being in VOD with a very high pe. I see a lot more value in BT than VOD going forward. The value will be out one day with BT, I just don't know when that day will be.

Cheers guys excellent board this one.

Regards all.
Nige

'With BT's restructuring well under way and projects starting to show good progress, it's fair to say this represents a good entry point.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/investing/article-7666331/INVESTMENT-EXTRA-fibre-cables-lift-BT-hole.html

"ITV has today exchanged contracts for the sale of the London Television Centre on the South Bank to Mitsubishi Estate London Limited in an all-cash transaction for £145.6m. Completion is expected to occur by the end of November."

The figure of all cash £145.6mln isn't too bad I suppose. It was reported in June (see link below) that ITV was looking for £150mln. At least ITV can now move on with some cash.

https://www.egi.co.uk/news/itv-picks-new-buyer-for-former-south-bank-home/

Dallo & Alan, excellent post's guys.

"I can only guess Nige, no one really knows, but i stated in a previous post that i believe £3 to £4, in a year from now, if the Conservatives win a clear majority in the general election and Boris gets his deal through, but I repeat, it is only a guess."

Fleccy, Avrohom & Velo,,

Thanks guys for you replies. it's much appreciated.

My apologies Fleccy, I must have missed you previous post regarding your price target of £3 to £4. IMHO, I would also agree with you, my guess would be a very similar to yours £3. I think that Brexit has played a big part in a lot of domestic shares being undervalued, with the weak pound caused by Brexit uncertainties. Happy to hold, BT look cheap to me. JMO of cause.

Fleccy & Velo,

I doubled up in BT yesterday @195 or a tad under, bringing my average down to 206p. I'm happy to hold and collect the very good dividend yield currently on offer, and hopefully a good capital return. I would value both of your opinions regarding your 12 month price target. Thanks in advance.

Regards. Nige

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/nov/07/britbox-uk-networks-plan-to-tackle-netflix-amazon-and-apple-tv?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Hi Trent,

Yes ITV advertising will improved with the government adverts run up to the end of Oct (Brexit that wasn't). Also the Rugby World Cup with Wales making it to the Semi-Final and England making the Final. Viewing figures were very good. Every little helps.