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Harbour Energy - a reviewToday 09:17
To recap on managements performance and progress since Harbours inception -
1. Paid down over 90% of the debt, which amounted to 150% of the market cap. In doing so they have protected shareholders and the company. Oil could fall to $40, Harbour would survive thanks to this action.
2. Returned billions back to shareholders, introducing a sizable dividend that is comfortably covered by earnings and that continues to rise, AND bought back nearly 20% of the shares, returning more value to shareholders in a non taxable way.
3.Embarked on one of the boldest and ambitious takeover, buying a company five times their size, diversifying their portfolio all over the world which as well as offering shareholders protection from cowboy governments (no one saw the WF tax coming) will also significantly increase earnings.
Outstanding work, so far.
Massive factor for me will be any change in Askar Alshinbayev holdings. He came from nowhere with 6.19% holding notified in July 2023 as of yet no notification to say otherwise ;
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CHAR/holdings-in-company-tu6uf79giow1jgc.html
We know Askar is embroiled as Kazakhstan’s Secret Billionaires and has appeared on Forbes Rich List, so what has he to do with Mgt buyout ! He's also via connection with Meridian Capital well financed as well as founding partner, interestingly the other founding partner, Yevgeniy Feld also controls a holding in CHAR via YF Finance Limited. The thing that jumps out is neither have their TR-1's associated with Meridian Capital but registered in their on individual entity... hummm !!
https://meridiancapitallimited.com/management/
So, my thinking is, will Askar and Yevgeniy together with CHAR mgt work on taking CHAR private or will Askar and Yevgeniy make a play (or anther one if it was them last year) themselves. Askar last RNS holding was announced when the SP was circa ~15.5p, so minimum offer would be above that.
Although it can't be relied upon, Simply Wall St has a valuation target of 109p/s as fair target, with analysts at ~45p/s, then of course we have Malcy constantly stating worth 100p/s
As others here have alluded too, an offer of ~30p/s imo would reflect the current risks in play. Once these risks are eliminated one by one ( not long to wait for that to commence ) the price of 30p/s would be confined to history.
This brings me back to who was it that made an approach and got knocked back and what was on offer. Lots of questions but as of yet very few answers. One thing is for sure, with what we have already we are worth significantly more than 9.84p.
Are we in play is the big one, we could well be, interesting times for CHAR shareholders !!!
aimo & dyor
The 'pressure' was from a direct question within the Q&A session that AP was unprepared for, hence had no choice than to let the cat out of the bag.
https://stream.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/preview/65705f5f85e1630925165801
aimo & dyor
Would a mgt buyout be out of the question ?
Probably not I would say .... !!
Some big hitters joined our board recently with no doubt ideas of bigger and better things lead by Westward Investments (Adonis Pouroulis – CEO). The approach (which we know next to nothing about ) for our whole company that was given away under pressure on live feed interview could have been the push mgt needed. Have it or loose it !
Just a thought and putting it out there ...
aimo & dyor
NQM,
Don't worry, I'm sure there is a willing buyer not too far away that's happy to pay over the odds for assets, profits from which will be subject to WFT. The dealmaker could be the fact NEO carry significant investment allowances to offset tax .... !!!
Now who made that argument recently !!!
aimo & dyor
Most likely another delayed trade from Wednesdays 'Completion of Energean Transaction' RNS, also I would say possibly an agreed transfer of shares akin to 40m the other day. Either way shares are moving from an unloved holder to one that loves CHAR, esp as it was at 8.25p/s.
AIMO & DYOR
Interesting to see what the Yank's make of this today !
"Shares have gone from distressed seller to one or more extremely happy buyer.." agree.
Now, how about Westward Investments taking the lot, that would put the cat among the pigeons for sure.
aimo & dyor
Both Qube (1.15%) and Kintbury (0.71%) will be hurting today. Given today's RNS don't think many will want to short DARK on any scale going forward now.
aimo & dyor
Lol .... says the person who's life is so sad it needs to go abroad to find someone that will tolerate its presence, for cash no doubt.
As for HBR we are on track to have the proposed acquisition circular published very soon that will add detail to the deal giving the markets something to digest and appreciate the deal for what it is, transformational.
aimo & dyor
"I am assuming that whoever is clearing out (Covalis, Askar or both) have opened the taps this morning to clear the final lot...."
We must of really annoyed them with our knockback on offer (by unknown entity) for the whole company as they are set, it appears, to sell out at any cost rather than letting the SP rise on news first.
aimo & dyor
Big buys from yesterday are in a loss atm, so much for insider trading, unless they were happy with their ~2% profit this morning. I would have thought however, they wanted in for a substantially larger return than a tiny few percent.
All systems go RNS has us on the ropes once again, RED ffs !!!
aimo & dyor
ICB,
Yep noticed those too, another reason for the pull-back this morning maybe !
09-Apr-24 14:42:47 8.87 600,000 Unknown* 8.73 8.80 53.22k O
09-Apr-24 14:42:07 8.87 400,000 Unknown* 8.73 8.80 35.48k O
Agree, looks to me like buys too and from same entity / person.
atb
aimo & dyor
Some examples of recent trades of this type that exceed the ISA allowance :
14-Mar-24 16:19:06 7.50 1,100,000 Unknown* 7.55 7.68 82.50k O
14-Mar-24 16:19:06 7.50 -1,100,000 Unknown* 7.55 7.68 -82.50k O
22-Feb-24 10:36:58 7.59 -300,000 Unknown* 7.57 7.65 -22.77k O
22-Feb-24 10:36:58 7.59 300,000 Sell* 7.58 7.65 22.77k O
On top of which we still have our pesky 100k seller too !!
aimo & dyor
"NewKOTB are some of these not Bed & ISA's?..."
Could well be, but could also be under the disguise of. The reason I say that is these 'style' of trades have been happening for many months now outside of the recent new ISA window, usually when we have any form of decent SP rise they kick-in. I'm not sure how bed'n'ISA get reported so you may be correct too.
atb
aimo & dyor
Someone is halting any rise with decent volume sells then shortly afterwards reverses those trades, a practice which is totally illegal when used in this way. Been happening many times before over several weeks / months time and time again, however it is bindingly obvious what their continual MO is today .... kill any rise, dead, control SP, for what end is the question !!
CHAR's nomad (Cavendish) and our CFO JMW should investigate and act accordingly imo.
Quick extract of some of todays illegal activity mixed in with normal trades :
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
09-Apr-24 11:53:23 9.204 217,242 Sell* 9.29 9.43 19.99k O
09-Apr-24 11:53:23 9.204 -217,286 Unknown* 9.29 9.43 -20.00k O
09-Apr-24 11:57:18 9.55 900 Buy* 9.28 9.40 85.95 O
09-Apr-24 11:54:57 9.337 14,000 Buy* 9.22 9.35 1,307 O
09-Apr-24 11:54:49 9.239 100,000 Sell* 9.22 9.38 9,239 O
09-Apr-24 11:54:17 9.2062 4,000 Sell* 9.21 9.34 368.25 O
09-Apr-24 11:54:09 9.28 20,000 Buy* 9.19 9.34 1,856 A
09-Apr-24 11:53:59 9.325 80,000 Buy* 9.19 9.28 7,460 O
09-Apr-24 11:53:23 9.204 217,286 Sell* 9.19 9.28 20.00k O
09-Apr-24 11:52:43 9.19 217,639 Sell* 9.19 9.28 20.00k O
09-Apr-24 11:52:29 9.266 15,000 Buy* 9.19 9.28 1,390 O
09-Apr-24 11:50:50 9.15 -218,591 Unknown* 9.19 9.28 -20.00k O
09-Apr-24 11:51:02 9.15 20,000 Sell* 9.15 9.27 1,830 A
09-Apr-24 11:50:50 9.15 218,591 Sell* 9.15 9.25 20.00k O
AIMO & DYOR
"question is what is the extent of the tailwind tax losses that cann be used..."
We will all find out very shortly with YE report. The effect of these 'wonderful deal making' tax losses will of had 9 months to feed into our combined results, ( plus 3 months from TW itself) so they had better be good.
DT you should of been here during this fiasco unfolding as there was a plethora of helpful and factual posts, needless to say, will the chickens come home to roost or will they start to lay these much promised golden eggs !
PS Just off the Sainsbury's to buy some eggs, golden yolk if I can find them, otherwise I could be left will just an empty shell !!!!
aimo & dyor