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£1 would be nice, but we were there or thereabouts almost a year ago with nothing but a great video by BobnJay and 'potential'. A lot of people would have climbed in then (yep, that's me, Neverlearn) then bailled out after losing a ton. I am now waiting for this dwindle to bottom out ( as it will, if we look next door and given we have to wait 5 years for decision on financing Kodiak, and a good year for financing decisions on Aphun). So a good long wait before a drill even touches the ground (why do things take so long in the oil game .... ) !!. And we all know what happens during those long waits (unless of course a friendly in-farmer/ JV/ buyer comes along in the meantime.......
Just saying, might not be the bottom yet..... IMHO of course.
Agreed, rogadar. This is the dwindle phase. Despite all good news and just like the other place over the road, oil is what the goal is. Test results, potential resource.......... all means nothing to investors if the black stuff doesn't emerge. Next door is a classic example, where they're a few missed attempts at goal ahead of us, but we are repeating their same patterns. Just before any drills, tests etc we shoot up a bit (1 step forward), then in the news lull that follows, we go 2 steps back, resulting in a lower and lower bottom. The new highs get lower and lower too.
We are significantly better off than 18 months ago, with positive results etc. yet we were at 130p then. Okay, dilution and CRs etc, but still..doesn't compute.
I've been trying to play these small quick rises and slow big dips, but only clearing a few % and still on a massive papaer loss given I got in at 80p . Will wait now. Reckon the new bottom will be around where the old bottom was around 10-12p maybe a p or two up. That, IMHO is the time to climb back in then wait for the next hype....but hopefully something more. Easy double bag for the brave ?
Time will tell. Suggest you have a look at the graphs for the last 6 months or even the last month for a reality check. You are right about upcoming risk reward, just don't believe it will be upcoming until much closer to the time when we might get a reward....
And down she goes again....... this is just like a certain neighbour now. Ain't going to move much till something liquid comes out in commercial volumes. No real reason for it to rise. No oil worth mentioning, dilution etc. Might swing a bit +- 10% on MM actions for trading purposes, but will only spike again just before the next drill.
This has rapidly become just like 88e, IMO, lots of 'potential', lots of enthusiasm and hope, but lots of disappointment....... I'll pop a top up in when it soon settles back to 15 or so (seeing as my average is 90p , ouch), or wait till we are a week or two from the next drill
Ddraig. I dunno. Could it also be both 88 and PANR are guilty of overhyping their 'potential' reserves. On 88 certainly, I think people have wised up and are no longer buying the froth, but waiting for the fat lady to sing. And she hasn't bothered to even clear her throat 4 times in a row with 88. Jim and Bob were so excited, there had to be a gusher, but then nada. Yes, valuable data. Yes, learning experience for next time. Yes some small trickle of production. But that's not what investors want. Tese are highly speculative shares and people rightly want multibagging returns, given the binary nature of oil discovery (Oil exists and is commercially viable, or it doesn't and/or isn't). Its this simple yes or no that the average punter is getting disappointed by, and the price reflects the disappointment. A bit more honesty from the BOD in the hype videos etc would reduce the swings, i.e if they said " we think we have found some oil. We are going to send down a 3 inch drill bit a mile and hope the hell we hit it bang on in the middle of the 20 foot target zone, which we only guess is where we think it is, 'cos all we've got are some sound wave bouncy data to aim with"..... then we might see a more measured approach and not so much disappointment, i.e 90% drops in SP.
Just my 2p worth, as this is my own experience/ feeling on 88e , at least, and I'm sure most people feel the same.
Peaky, what we have to remember is we were already at £1.30+ just 9 months ago, so this won't really be 'going up' at all as far as a good investment goes. I'm down 90%, so any upward is just going to get me some of my investment back. If I had tons of cash I would average dwon and top at at these super low prices, but if this is anythibng like our neighbours, you just don't know how low it could go. 1 step forward 3 steps back, just like 88, although we're currently at 20 steps back and yet to go forward. ANother dog I've managed to invest in (so far). I lived in hope for 7 years in 88 and moved here hoping for a bit more competence and some actual liquid. So far, a lot of hot air and smelly gas. But hey, there still hope. Just looked at my low risk tech sector ETF (bought around the same time) and thats currently at +35%. Neverlearn by name........
Agreed Peaky. 90% of this board is taken up with petty d*ck measuring contests between a handful of sh*t-stirrers and those who react to their taunts.
We all know who they are, so maybe we could have a whip round and get them all a cage for a couple of hours, where they can release their testosterone face to face rather than little sniping anonymous texts that just annoy everyone, not just the target poster. They're probably all mouth and no muscle, so might be a laugh to get 'em in a ring and let the slapping begin :-)
Agreed Adder. The climate change activistas all seem to forget that their jackets, shoes, hats, sunglasses, megaphones (the list goes on and on), hell, even their glue, all come from oil. If they really were as dedicated as they say, they'd all be naked or dressed in hemp leaves from head to toe. Hippocrites, the lot of them, and their virtue signalling EV's emit so much CO2 in their production, they need to do 90 000 miles before they finally catch up to a small ICE vehicle, and only after that are they more environmentally friendly (apart from the millions of tons of used lithium which will pollute the ground FOREVER or use so mnay nasty chemicals to recycle its really not great, or the destructive deep sea mining about to kick off simply to get more of the nasty stuff) !!
I think oil will be around for a long while yet. Aircraft, ships and everything else except cars can't really do without it (until we get green hydrogen going). Hopefully we get a huge bunch of it soon !!
Erm, no Brian. Can't see the point of your question, if it was directed at me. What I don't want (and this is really for the 88 board) is the 'cap off and abandon' strategy that seems to plague every drill they do, despite good initial data. Let's do data logs, lets flow test, but let's be honest, when was the last flow test that actually tested a flow on 88. We've had mud, dust, water, broken holes, power failures, missed drill windows (??). Even my rose coloured specs have given up hope, but you never know, they could eventually strike a bit of real oil. You asked why the SP on 88 hadn't taken off on the RNS news, I offered an opinion, which I think is valid. It's certainly how I feel after hoping for 7 years that they would get something right , and I'm sure I'm not alone !!
Brian. The 88 RNS doesn't really have anything positive. Its just telling us the drill is further down the hole with another 3-5 days of drilling. Even when they hit TD, no guarantees of oil. We've had the fluorescence hype etc before on 88 drills, but not a drop of oil, so everybody is kind of "Yeah, right. Show us the black stuff before we believe" , and with good reasongiven the track record. Was in 88 for 7 years and lost 50% , so moved to PANR and lo and behold, down to 23p in just a few weeks. Sod's law !. Promises, excuses and wonderfully exciting survey's just aren't going to cut it any more.
To quote Yoda "Do, or do not. No such thing as try"
Just hope old Louis isn't proven right about his 10p forecast. 3% down today and dropping all the time.... Gotta bottom out soon, surely. Trying to time a sneaky average-downing buy !
Does this mean a similar CR every quarter now ? How long before we get a new, properly designed & deep drill site ?
This is no death spiral, I agree, but anything that's not good news is amplified by 1000 on the SP, so for example if we have to wait a year for the next drill, that 4 more dilutions to pay the quarterly repayments, and a much lower SP, as I see it.
The quicker we get a new site, the better....
Level, those predictions are great for those piling in now. Trouble for me and I guess others, is I piled in big in the 90p range, and only averaged down a bit when it trickled down to 50ish p. Had I few million to chuck in now, then a nice 5 yr long hold. As it stands on these predictors, I'll need to wait 5 years just to double bag. Sucks ! Guess I'll try to rustle up some pennies and try to average down, now it's a third of my average price. AIM !!!
Mikeym, got to go up, surely. A year ago we were 5 x this SP, with what ? ....an excitable Jay and Bob on video, a wing and a prayer. Now we have something tangible and just like that other crowd (starts with 8 and ends with e), if the news ain't the biggest sweet crude oil gusher ever found that extracts itself straight into the pipeline, then crash !. (At least this crowd gets oil out the ground, not dust or mud. )
And to think I ditched all my 7 year held 88e shares to buy this one, only to have the same sh*t here, but I still think there's much more to come from these guys. Certainly seems as if there IS oil down there
Now at least they're back to half of what I paid, but we live in hope.
9.14 - I sincerely hope we break much, much more than £1, seeing as we were at £1.50 just back in April last year . Fingers crossed we're worth a lot more than that with actual flow tested oil of 650+bpd.....
dhb, lets hope so. The quietness is a bit too reminiscent of a certain neighbouring company which I have pulled out of due to sheer uselessness on their part and rinse and repeat hype, raise cash then fail. And when they went quiet it was never good news that came out. I'm sure this will be different as the level of confidence is way higher from JayBob (unless they deserve Oscars) but my spidey sense cannot help but tingle ever so slightly. I might be alone in this, but have invested in hope, and its already down 25%. Nervous time til next RNS :-0
16:17 Thanks Brom. Sounds like a reasonable deduction, and bodes well for the confidence of this turning to production. they wouldn't be requesting such a long period if they didn't have belief they had plenty more to come, I guess
Any ideas as to why we are applying for 9 months flow testing, whereas typically a few weeks is considered normal by the AOGCC ? That's a lot of gas, and I get the idea the objective of the hearings is to determine whether excessive gas would be wasted by flaring. Could be a blanket cover to deal with a few flarings from multiple drills over the next 9 months..... maybe ? Hope the extra long period requested doesn't jeopardise our permit
Sorry Brom. You are right of course. Your fastidious eye has picked up on my slovenly attention to detail. Of course its just a AOGCC hearing, not an actual court-of-law case, but most people knew what I meant. Evidence will be presented, judgements will be passed, but no-one will go to jail. (hopefully) :-)
Hey Squirrel. You have my "Midas touch".
i think it's the lack of communication and misquoted timings making people nervous. They must be doing something at the drill site. There should be a ton of updates they could be issuing, but its quiet...... too quiet for some folks.
the last RNS was 26th Sept. The workover rig was inbound a week - 10days from then, so 6th Oct. Cleanup could take a good few days if there was a huge amount of frac fluid to clear, but 2 weeks after is a bit long with no interjecting news. The flow tests were meant to be cracking ahead by now surely. The court case on 27th is not supposed to delay initial flow tests at all.
Nervous times = dropping SP. Give us some news, directors. Anything...please. There must be something you can tell us, e.g. " we have cleared out xm3 of frac fluid and only y m3 remain, so flow testing should be good to go on n Oct" or even " cleanup is taking a bit longer than expected, but the production tubing and everything else needed is ready to go and holding , so we should begin initial flow testing on {date}.
I'm no oil man, so all IMHO, but no news in our case isn't necessarily good news for the SP
This from Baker Hughes as to the reasons for a flare : "A flare stack produces a fire as part of controlled burning taking place for a few typical reasons: 1) as part of testing to stabilize pressure and flow from a well 2) managing waste gas that can’t be captured or processed 3) for safety or emergency situations to release pressure. Flare stacks are mostly found in refineries, chemical and petrochemical plants, natural-gas processing plants, offshore exploration platforms, well heads and landfills. "
Flaming is also pretty much environmentally required now, to convert any methane into CO2 + H2O, given that methane is many x more harmful to the atmosphere than CO2, and when those old trees and plants decomposed, there was always methane produced. If we dodn't flare it off we'd have Greta and her mates round in a jiffy :-)
I don't think we've hit a gas field here, if that's what people are worried about