Member Info for nevergonnaretire

Really disappointed with the price today, especially after yesterday afternoon, naive to think corner turned yet, but surely this didn't go down on one downgrade.. the UT was rubbish as well, am hopeful its just mms allowing ii to begin to load up :)
Still believe that although the results will bot be great reading, the forecast and forward guidance will still be good, and we'll see a result of the RCF discussions..
Onwards and upwards. I doubt £4 will be in play.. just as likely to be £6 in play, and more likey somethimg in the middle.

.. what's your thoughts..?

I notice the doomsday goers have started to disappear..
I thought it would rise this morning, hey ho,.topped up another 1200 shares.
Will see what tomorrow brings, hopefully a rise into the results..

Didn't see a 50% cut and can't read all the times clip, and you are right Hereshopin, just one had reduced credit insurance, i just wrote that as an example of worst case scenario... so the situation is nowhere near as bad as what is being touted on here!
Do your own research and it tells the story, this will bounce shortly

Not sure where people are getting the credit insurance cut by 50%..? I haven't seen that, but if that's true then if you assume that all credit insurers cut their cover by 50% and no suppliers trade uninsured (partly or fully), then this creates a large hole in liquidity and reduces their headroom to c.£200M (very rough figure) - A Very Much Worst Case Scenario!
Unless credit insurers reduce cover further, this should be worst case. ASOS also announced that they are "in the final stages of agreeing an amendment to the future financial covenants in its Revolving Credit Facility". This should further help ease cash pressures and bring business as usual.
customers having credit insurance pulled or reduced happens fairly regularly, more than you know of!!! . Usually we were able to negotiate with our insurers and traded partly uninsured to leave the customer as unaffected as possible. Ok Asos is not your usual customer, but It happens, it will happen again and it will get resolved!

Seeking alpha add on..
"I've been running the numbers again today after the update yesterday. At 28 Feb 2022, ASOS payables were £927M. If you assume that all credit insurers cut or reduced their cover by 50% and no suppliers trade uninsured (partly or fully), then this creates a c.£460M hole and reduces their liquidity headroom to c.£200M...
Unless credit insurers reduce cover further, this should be worst case scenario..
ASOS also announced that they are "in the final stages of
agreeing an amendment to the future financial covenants in its Revolving Credit Facility". This should further help ease cash pressures.
Anecdotally, in the food ingredients company I ran, customers having credit insurance pulled or reduced happened fairly regularly. Usually we were able to negotiate with our insurers and traded partly uninsured to leave the customer as unaffected as possible. The same could be said for Asos, whereby if the relationships between them and suppliers are strong then this could lead to the reduced credit insurance having no real effect on the business short term. Clearly, this is not great news as will create further volatility in the share price - I do expect there to be 12 months of struggles for ASOS, which will not be for the faint of heart. They release their results and have an analyst call on Wednesday where I'm sure this will be a topic on conversation."
Short term headwinds..

I still wonder why they didn't update the market in August about credit insurance being reduced...? Have negotiations been ongoing since then..?

They may update tomorrow, now that the cats out of the bag...

Ok, so they need to look at their margins and improving them, something I'm sure will be in the next update and will be key to forward guidance. if not, I'll cut my losses, as not accepting there is an issue and finding ways to solve it is tantamount to suicide.
Liking Asos to failed companies is a clear deramp in itself.. as imo all said and told I think we all wish that we didn't invest until now, but hindsight is what it is...
Imo bankruptcy will not happen, but each to their own..
An interesting week ahead.. and an opportunity to trade.

They were rearranging the RCF back in 2020, adding 80 million to my recollection.. not surexwhat happened?
A debt for equity is not necessarily a bad thing, far from it, it could free the shackles of covenants, and allow the company to move on..

I do have that feeling myself netzero, but first a drop, before the rise..

Doom mongers out in force! A business can trade with reduced credit insurance, and both suppliers and asos can seek to re-insure at any time (we have heard nothing about suppliers holding stocks for immediate payment..!) which is no doubt why (in part) advisors have been bought in, there will be a business case put forward (probably done already) with plans going forward, and then insurance put back in place or agreed when the insurers are satisfied with the asos plans at some point.
Isn't 40% or more of sales / profit from own label currently..?
The hold imo is temporary, and we may not even hear about the credit insurance put back in place!
The restructuring is more critical as favourable terms are being sought after to see asos through.. let's be fair they haven't even used the credit facilities yet, and still have cash from said bond to see them through.. all of which was omitted from both sky news yesterday and the shysters at the times this morning, no doubt to carry favour from the shorters arena! They make it sound like the business is on the brink of collapse, which is categorically untrue!
If we believed what all these papers said then Putin will be nuking us all tomorrow!
It all sounds dramatised to me to allow shorts to leave!
Surely we all knew that next 6 to 12 months were going to be difficult and that no massive bounce back at year end would be had..? This is now a 2/3/5 year play!
Imo next year will be much the same, if not a little worse, then onwards..
I would be worried though if the sales growth came to an abrubt end, and a reverse of the last few years started, but find this highly unlikely.
Between sky news report and the seeking alpha report will be the real truth, the long road to recovery.
Bouncy bouncy week incoming whilst people decide what to do.. buy or sell..
I feel a trade coming on.. :)

I want to hear more balanced talk on here from people who have looked at the business as a whole and not decided from one sky news report that all is lost!

I also have a feeling the doom mongers will be all over this share later today and Monday morning, taking their pound of flesh!
It could easily spike the other way too!
Batton down the hatches..

Nothing can be kept secret at the moment, it's disappointing that the news agencies get hold of his first again! But asos have said they have seen no notable difference in supply since being notified in August, frustrating that no rns was issued..? Weird! Surely that's inside info worth reporting..? Just going to have to ride out the storm.. volume have been on the rise last few days, positions being taken for the rise? Then again a major investor has been selling down.
I don't believe 2023, especially the 1st half will be any better, and perhaps bottom line will be similar to this year, so stabilisation of this train is needed, I just hope the extra week was worth the wait, although I believe it was needed to iron out the issues with its banking amd credit facilities going forward, as without them a very large raise would be needed immediately with shareholders being diluted up to 50% or more..
This share is like Forest Gumps box of chocolates.. you never know what you're gonna get!

Double bubble..? 6/7/8 quid plus :)
Inflation should be on the decrease, slightly down from last month.

West, we don't know what or how much has been removed from the insurance, or what guarantees etc.. this could have a knock on effect throughout the sector on Monday (like toys r us) temporarily, but now believe the bounce will be on more than ever - 50% book value!

That is finally an excellent well balanced (on both sides!) Report from alpha, well worth the read and also very informative.. if that doesn't get investors on board, am not sure what will!!!
A very well timed report as well.. :)

Sky News trash, headline doom and gloom , first paragraph doom and gloom, similar to the Times bull a few weeks back.. this is what the shorters knew, and why the statement was put back a week, not the rubbish about bank holiday blah blah blah! Makes sense now that the statement will be massive on Wednesday!
Share price drop on Monday will then be providing another top up opportunity.. if it does at all, I can still see this rising over £6 into results and then beyond.
Do your own research but if the Co. Is saying...
"Significantly increased financial flexibility, against the uncertain economic backdrop. ASOS retains a strong liquidity position and this is a prudent step in the current environment" then I believe the Doom Hype is well overdone, and a lot of work has gone on behind the scenes on putting right inventory situations, how to push sales, United states situation, staffing levels etc.
The night is darkest before the dawn!

https://www.msn.com/en-GB/finance/other/asos-to-reveal-sales-impact-from-tightened-household-budgets/ar-AA12XO9B?ocid=sapphireappshare

Nothing that we don't know... yet.

... Budget U-Turn...?