Barnard I get your frustration, but this idea that production=better share price is just not so clear cut. Look at HUM, multiple operating mines, multiple jurisdictions, yet sporting a market cap less than ours!!!
Personally, I couldn't care less whether we build or not build, I want the share price higher and a liquidity event to exit. If the board believes that that will more likely be achieved via the sales process then so be it.
Let me put it another way, what if rather than embarking on the sales process 18 months ago, they announced the fund raise to start build, built the mine with no issues, and was now producing gold, yet after huge dilution and taking on debt, the market cap was actually less than it is today? You'd be fuming.
Nothing is clear cut in equity markets these days.
CF not only that but the FS used recent inflation-adjusted costs so recent cost increases are basically "priced in". Makes a big difference as some gold operators are seeing costs rising faster than the gold price.
Jim has always been bullish on gold, I expect his investment here was him hoping that gold would rise to $5000+ before selling out. Sadly that didn't come to pass, but I think he still retains his bullish view on gold.
So, with that in mind, what would Jim prefer coming out of this sale process? A decent wad of (depreciating) cash that he'd just have to reinvest in gold miners? Or a nice stake in a solid gold producer where he can keep his exposure to the rising gold price? Perhaps even a seat on the board? As we are entering a commodities bull market it would certainly be a nice place to be for the next 10+ years of the cyclical bull market in commodities.
To that end, perhaps he was angling for calibre to buy condor since they started this sales process? We'll find out soon!
I don't know, how hard would it be for Jim and some billionaire PE chums to whip round £100m?! Not that hard I imagine. Must be tempting when the gold price is on such a tear. 12 months to build then sell the producing mine for at least £200m.
Surely that has to be part of their negotiating strategy, even if he's not seriously intending on following through?
Yes gold making very strong moves with 5 out of the last 6 weekly candles very green, rising from $2024 to $2260 currently. I wonder where this short term bull move will move to before hitting serious resistance.
And of course adds potential rocket fuel under the junior market. Come on Condor, make the deal!
The gold price is $500 higher than when the company first announced the plan to sell the assets in Nov 22. The NPV of the upside scenario was originally stated in the sale teaser doc as $418m @ $1700/oz gold price.
So what is the NPV at $2200/oz, given the total LOM profit is now $1.6 BILLION vs $930 MILLION?
The longer they drag this out the more they're going to have to cough up! $100m? Don't make me laugh!!
Surrey, potential acquirers might make the argument that the avg share price for Condor over the past year is around 20p, why should they pay much more than this? Two points stand out to me:
1. The NPV of the assets (depending on scenario) considering the avg gold price over the past year is in the many hundreds of millions of dollars. Even accounting for cost of mine build, the net value is many times higher than the current share price.
2. If the acquirer were to attempt to buy enough shares on the open market to attempt a hostile take over, what would the resultant share price look like (I would suspect it would be far closer to that of option 1 above).
I think the reason that negotiations have taken so long is due to the simple fact that these potential acquirers thought they could purchase Condor's assets at bottom dollar, and it's taken some time to get to the point where they have accepted they are going to have to pay "fair value". Now, what exactly fair value looks like we will have to see...
Hang on sakura, so out of two people that you do not know:
You are sure that the first has no reason to not be telling the truth despite non stop complaints and negative posts for the last god knows how many years.
The other you're more sceptical of despite the fact he has single handedly kept you investment alive and is currently working hard to get a decent price for the company's assets?!
Posts on this board never cease to amaze me.
Sorry Punter, just so I'm clear, which mining explorer CEO are you comparing MC to? Unless you've been following a different sector to me the entire gold sector has been crap since 2011. But don't let facts get in the way of a good moan.
However I agree, I am looking forward to this journey being over very soon hopefully.
The thing is, Jim is a *billionaire*! We, and everyone else knows that he could fund the mine build out of his own pocket if he wanted to. And that is the fundamental factor in these negotiations, he simply says to any producer that is seriously interested in the assets:
"Make it worth my while or I'll build the bloody thing myself. I did not invest and tie up tens of millions of pounds just to give these assets away to you people!"
So I think the negotiations have taken longer than expected due to finding the price at which both Jim and the buyer are content.
For the record I think this would be 60p MINIMUM, but of course I could be wrong. I just don't see Jim giving away billions in expected NPV for peanuts.
Both in USD and GBP, as well as plenty of other currencies. Condor's market cap spiked to £60M+ back in April/May 2023 when gold rose above $2000, yet here we sit at a £40M market cap with gold flying.
Come on JM/MC, get these assets sold!!
Simms re Calibre, I wonder how happy they would be to see Condor's assets sold to the Chinese for a relatively cheap price? If only we could get a binding offer agreed and announced then the other players would be forced to show their hands.
To be fair to Jim, gold is now at all time highs in dollars and less than £10 away from an all time high in sterling. I'd say his call on gold was correct, and I imagine he's very much using this news to hammer the point that the NPV of the project is flying higher and higher as the gold price rises whilst inflation falls.
Shame that the equity markets are an utter clown show, but a company's share price/market cap bears zero relationship to it's fundamental value as is more than apparent right now.
Hopefully Jim can close the deal soon and get a good price for us all.