Member Info for mythyaar

Can't disagree with that BetterX. And the statement that accompanied the announcement was very bullish too. An attractive investment opportunity at current SP.

A good time to average down and purchase some more then?

Perseris whilst not a significant contributor was identified on the call as something they were going to target (improved sales etc) next year. So, whilst the sales are flat, the board clearly see some mileage/ potential in it.

Opvee could be a game changer in the years to come. Will take a while to gain traction, but once it does, then INDV (and its LTH shareholders) will hopefully reap the rewards.

No, sorry corradus - I was just going to emphasise that Ryan Preblick CFO was sounding bullish on yr end at least hitting range (top end 630 I hope) and that the $1.5 billion target for sublocade going forward was a new metric (as far as I'm aware). But I either didn't hear or missed the target date for this to be achieved by.

Thanks for the observations ShearClass.

Do you mean suboxone when you said sublingual? Its decline was an inevitability now that sublocade is increasingly replacing it.

You also said no details on the Opvee launch but at the presentation at 1pm they were clear about it. It has launched and already secured a contract with Barda.

Some other take outs from that call that probably weren't too well received. They are strengthening their sales teams to promote both sublocade and perseris. Cost of sales is high and increasing, will impact profits.

Perseris as you say, is flatlining - have management taken their eye off the ball or is it not going to be as successful a product as they had hoped it would? The clear strategy going forward is to promote and develop both sublocade and perseris. They need to do far better with perseris to satisfy their future ambitions. It's important that INDV are not regarded as a "one drug" company - so the perseris message was probably quite damaging for investor confidence.

Some other messages - they want to grow sublocade to over 1.5 billion p.a - not sure timescales were given but maybe 2-3 years? Current FY guidance on sublocade is $610m to $630m. It goes without saying that to ensure no further erosion of investor confidence, they need to be nearer the $630m mark.

Other takeouts - developing a pipeline of approx 5 products, AELIS AEF0117 being the most furthest developed. $774m of cash - obviously c£350m of that required for latest legal settlement. They have also acquired a manufacturing operation/ site in N Carolina for the production of perseris and sublocade.

The market is probably regarding INDV as a wait and see company, and if it can deliver on its ambitions on sublocade whilst maintaining a reasonable cost base, and show some improvements wrt perseris and get some more OPVEE contracts, they may well return. But for now, its jam tomorrow and that's probably where the negative market sentiment is coming from, combined with the "will there be any more shocks"?

Ryan Preblick (CFO) stated that

Apeirogon - it was always going to be a shake down. INDV probably had a very decent case to present, but the other side's legal representative knew the dynamics in play - this was the last of the legacy issues - including the provisions made by INDV to settle. That will have been their minimum position.

I've been through a lot of dispute resolution in my time and you exhaust every single avenue - without prejudice talks, mediation, adjudication etc before you go to court. I've seen scenarios where it's gone to arbitration and the other party has had no real case and had a large part of their claim and costs awarded. It really is a lottery.

Had this gone to court, no way would INDV have had zero liability - and in reality it could have been more (with respective costs for both parties).

There is going to be an added provision this quarter, but remember that in Q4 onwards the impact of the Opvee nasal spray will really start to kick in - and that could be a genuine game changer for users.

Relief! We can move on now. Onwards and upwards!!

Idkmybibffjill - interesting that you are privy to information in relation to INDV's biggest shareholder. And that they had the "power" to persuade the BOD to defer the announcement of results pending hopeful settlement of pending legal matters.

If you care to re-read my post, I suggested that the deferment may be exactly due to the above: as I stated " Or, potentially, this court case settled prior to going to trial."

Either way, I'd stand by it not being a good optic. You seem to be indicating that the BOD can be influenced by a shareholder to defer results - is that a good thing?

They had earlier rejected the overtures of a major shareholder, Seven Seas CEO, to have a seat on the board. And yet they are minded to defer results due to a request by a shareholder to do so?

I don't have any doubts that the earnings will be good and in line with H2 comments/ projections, hopefully even better. But if you don't get the legal matters resolved, INDV will have to continue to carry forward a liability for it, and that will overshadow any excellent earnings/ performance, and negatively influence the SP. So, as I've said many times, the addressing of the legal issues is front and centre not only for the BOD and us small shareholders, but clearly based on your information, the larger shareholders too.

And in terms of the INDV share price mirroring the decline in the FTSE 250 in general. A month ago the FTSE 250 stood at 18638 and is now 17032 so a decline of 9.4%. A month ago INDV stood at 1780p and is now 1519p so down 17.2% - nearly double the decline of the FTSE 250.

They need to get the trial out of the way first - or preferably settled prior to going to trial - to prevent the seemingly inexorable daily decline.

The deferring of the Q3 results was/ is a bad optic too. 2 weeks later than for the previous 5 years - why? You can trace most of the SP's decline from that announcement. You don't defer because you have so much profit to declare that you need more time to add it up. You defer because you need to get your story straight first. Or, potentially, this court case settled prior to going to trial.

Back to the original point - get the case out of the way and settled/ resolved. Until then - a steady decline until 9th November. I bought in last week again at what I considered to be a great price, and it still probably is, and the basis that the continued drop would surely abate shortly and reverse. So far, I've been proved wrong.

I think if the China deal is off, the horrible "D" word comes into play.

Been dragging on for years now. Is there a possibility of it not happening? Board have said they'll get it over the line this quarter. Is the current weakness in the SP casting significant doubt on that "assurance"?

I think Blackrock have had the same holding for the year 5.05% combined. They ve just swapped a few voting rights shares inthe latest RNS

Down to 1575. I hope you're not underwater for too much longer Apeirogon! I've added a few too just now.

Thursday November 9th. This is 2 weeks later than normal - based on the previous 5 years of 3rd quarter reporting.

Just did a quick search on Two Seas Capital LP. Correct me if I'm wrong but they hold 13.7 million shares in INDV so about 10% of the company? And this is by some way their largest holding in their portfolio, c $250 million at current prices v next biggest at $75 million. They involve themselves in investments that have a "legal or regulatory catalyst" and "events-driven strategies". A positive spin on this is that they can see the potential value that Indivior can unlock, but are frustrated at the progress in resolving outstanding legal matters. Toussi may have requested to have a seat to add his thoughts to the matter and also understand Indivior's commercial and legal strategies going forward to help to protect their significant investment/ exposure in the company.

Hopefully the October 30th trial will be settled on the court steps, or before. Then we have a clear run.

Looks like increased revenue gobbled up by expenses / wage inflation etc to reduce profit. Not entirely sure how market will react to that.

Interim ex div date should be around 21st/ 22nd Sept. Final ex divi date is April 2024

I don't know re the SP today but it's a good entry point for me. I think the construction market worries are overplayed and Somero have forewarned. The only niggle would be that they haven't forewarned enough (ie a 2nd profit warning pending) but that's almost factored into today's SP. I'm holding LT.

I agree and I'm in at these levels. I would think that the market is looking on some green shoots - the investment and stocking have taken place - now for the sales figures H2.

That is the power of branding !