Member Info for MyMred

As predicted sat around 43.40 , where next is the big Question ??

GLA

madgpol fingers crossed ;)

We are stuck in a converging short term down trend from 16th March and the longer term uptrend. very near the meet point which is by my reckoning next week thursday circa 43.40 , which way it moves beyond then will determine direction.

Today we have touched both the top and bottom of the convergence prices

A move could come before next thursday but for sure in the next week it will be the moment of truth

GLA

Beach

It’s basically a straight line from October last years low to today’s low. You will see the price has already bounced off it in January and March . Will it hold this time? I’m not entirely sure .

We are now sat on the long term upward trend line..really should/need to see upward momentum from here ..

GLA

I put another limit order buy in for 150 and went through at 135!!! Not complaining

I would be looking for reversal when it hits the upward trend line again circa 42.5. Hourly RSi is in downward trend and will bottom out around then. May be a couple of days .
Could be wrong and don’t let my last prediction make you think the above as a given , it could be off the mark this time.

Dyor

Never sell ... it’s an interesting one... as Shell is down 1.06% on the week . Maybe indicates a slight rebalance towards bp due to the announcement.

Bp is technically still within the long term upward trend
Shell has kind of fallen out of it to some extent

Shell has a gap to fill from mid feb and very close to doing so
Bp also has a “gap no gap” around the same time but is way off

I will be putting half my cash in to both when the shell gap fills I think and then see what materialises on the way up to ex divi date.

Money may come back to oil as the big winners that drove the ftse up this week inevitably cool off at some point next week.

All IMHO

Danf

Honest answer is I don’t know

Looks like tomorrow’s open is going to be interesting ADR has been flying since our Thursday close

No problem hoggydog . The more you use it the more you learn and understand . I made some really poor decisions prior to understanding charts a bit more ... and still don’t get it right all the time , but more right than before.

There is a lot more to look at too but it can get a bit daunting so best bet is to just keep looking at the movements in relation to charts and the longer you do it the more it makes sense.

Good luck

Correct Zara not all gaps are filled - a lot are though!! Who knows!!! There are gaps above though so long term that’s where I am looking ;)

*very nearly !!!!

Hi Zara

I bought it too early but have averaged down and in the money now .

Yes I also had false hopes when it went to 7300 recently, this time looks a little different

The daily rsi which has been well oversold for a while is on the rise above the we are totally and utterly oversold signal line
The weekly candle very neatly co Reed last weeks candle
On the four hour chart we have crossed the signal line on the bollinger band
The daily MACD has crossed the buy signal line

4 good reasons that we are back on the up. The only nagging issue is a gap left at this mornings open!!! Which is an indicator that at some point we may have to head back down there, hopefully only briefly .

There is a lot of upside potential though so don’t lose sleep

IMHO
GLA

Hi Windows

Tricky one here as £2.85 would hold upward trend but the there is the “gap no gap” at low 260’s . I have retaken up a small position at the final bell and have funds to add if it goes down .

Sure anyone buying in at £2.90 is highly likely to make a profit in the next couple of months but obvs we all want to get the best entry price possible.

I for one wouldn’t like to call this

Nice to see happy is still banging out the info :)

GLA

Hi Viewing

The TA was purely around the scenario at the start of the week as doggydog asked..its beyond me to predict correctly what happens next, I would like to see a return to 50+ and there may well be another drop to the upward trend but its too hard to say at the moment its very much read what happens as you go along. First stop for me is to wait and see when the RSI gets to overbought and take a view if its worth cashing out - or if it will sustain in oversold territory above the lat few monthly highs... have to wait and see.. I am sure there are others on this board that may be able to offer an opinion.

Hi Doggydog

Here is a reply on how the TA came about

Firstly i am no expert and have picked up knowledge from other members on boards and researched various boards, one particular member of note is Geng who you can look up and posts charts on some of his comments.

Also there are various ways at looking at TA so for those that use it differently then I acknowledge that.

1. look at daily charts in candlestick view
2. You will see on 21st /2nd feb there was a gap between the two days trade - these gaps frequently appear and also frequently bu not always fill with trade at a later date - So I drew a horizontal line at 40.3 where the gap was
3. Look for trends, many shares currently have a Nov Low and one or more in between , capita had a second low mid Jan - Draw a line connecting Nov Low and Jan low and extend it onwards
4. On my chart these two lines intersected this week - this was the first indication that if a bounce was to happen it would be here - initially not on an exact day but sometime this week
5. Another popular chart tool are fibs retracements -, - again taking a point at nov low and extending to the recent high - the Fibonacci chart populates key retracement levels , on my chart the 38% retracement which is a key one was guess what 40.56 - this gave more confidence of support
6. i then did a shorter term fib chart using jan low and march high and the 50% (another key level ) showed 40.05 - giving further confidence
7. so come a couple of days out it was clear we were heading that way and gaps tend to offer little resistance and the price moves quickly through them , you will see the candlestick for tuesday left a long tail indicating the price tried to go down but the market didn't want it and therefore closed higher than the days low (the bounce)
8. I then wanted confirmation of direction and one avenue is a green candlestick totally encompassing the previous days trade in this case as tuesday didn't then i wanted to see this on weds - which it did.
Finally RSI this indicates Oversold or overbought stocks - as a rule of thumb i try to buy when the RSI is low (oversold) and sell when RSI hits the Overbought - works a lot but not all of the time - daily is best to use but in this case i used the 4hour chart which showed the Jan reversal as oversold so used the same theory.

Thats it, the thing is its not one size fits all and the best thing to do is look at each share you trade and look at the patterns to see what works for you. Ive made many mistakes and learnt from them all , i certainly wouldn't trade without doing a bit of charting first.

Give it a go.

Take at look at WKP as its in a triangle like us but very near the point of no return (will it pop up??!!)
Have a look at HSBA there is a clear gap at 411 - i wouldn't want to be buying in until this is filled
Look at persimmon - since September it has 5 times bounced of the trend line when the RSI was circa 36 - i waiting for this pattern again

I hop

Well that all went to plan. Clear sign of a change in direction now, just how fast and to where it’s too early to say but my gut feel is that it will go 50+ within the next 6 weeks as a minimum.

As for my TA spot on .... too spot on in fact , as now people will take future posts of mine more seriously as far as they will expect them to be accurate... DONT.. any TA posted by myself or anyone else can obviously be used in consideration but you MUST do your own research and make your own decisions

I will as requested give a breakdown tomorrow just on how I came to the TA on this , purely so those who have little TA knowledge can see how it works

I’m no expert or witch doctor with mystical powers just someone with a basic understanding of how these things work

That all being said hopefully some of you have made a few extra £££ in the last 48 hours

GLA

All good so far

Gap filled
Bounced of gap/upward channel /fibo resistance

Now need evidence of continued upward momentum .. first step a close above Monday’s open of circa 43.76, could take a couple of days but tomorrow would be a super positive sign. Eagle eyes tomoz on movements

GLA

That looks like the gap is filled... fingers crossed for recovery from her

GLA