HL on Shell's deal for BG9 Apr 2015 01:48
This is a bold move by Royal Dutch Shell to buy assets at what it hopes is the bottom of the cycle. BG shares were languishing around 910p before the deal was announced, having traded over 1,500p a few years ago. Even after allowing for the takeover premium, BG is being acquired for 200p or so less than its previous peak value.
BG has two core assets that have caught Shell's eye: the deep water fields offshore Brazil and the Queensland Curtis LNG scheme in Australia. Both these assets are in their early stages, with production modules due for delivery in Brazil over the next few years and the QC LNG plant having just started production around the end of last year.
Shell, in common with other large oil companies, has found production volume growth hard to achieve in recent years. BG's expected increase in volumes will assist greatly. Cost benefits will be significant, and the $2.5bn so far identified will go a long way to reducing the initial dilution of returns caused by the deal. Combining the exploration teams will be a major source of synergies, but other areas like shipping and financing will also play their part.
Assuming the deal goes through, Royal Dutch Shell's weight in the market indices will be significantly increased. Around 1.5bn new RDSB shares will be issued, increasing the total number of shares in issue by almost a quarter. Royal Dutch Shell's total weight in the FTSE 100 index will be approaching 9%, making the decision about what position UK equity fund managers hold in the stock possibly the most important item on their agendas.
The cash flows RDSB will generate and the dividends it will pay are utterly unaffected by such considerations and here perhaps lies the opportunity. RDSB has initially fallen on the news of the deal. That means, all else being equal, the yield on Shell shares has risen.
The company has announced it intends to pay $1.88 in dividends per share for 2015 and at least as much in 2016. At the current exchange rate of $1.49 and a price of around 2,100p for RDSB shares, that works out at a yield of circa 6% (variable and not guaranteed) for 2015 and as much, or more, for the following year.
BG Group brings longer-term growth in cash flow to Shell, due to those synergies and its rising volumes in Brazil and Australia. So long as energy prices suffer no further collapse, Shell's capacity to pay future dividends should be enhanced. At a time when UK gilts offer yields as little as 1.6% (for a ten year bond) Shell's yield stands out like a beacon.
Nothing is risk-free in the stock market and for Shell, the biggest risk looks to be the oil price. A further sharp fall could compromise the company's dividend paying capacity, but oil prices have already more than halved. And there are more people on the planet today, demanding energy, than there were yesterday and tomorrow will see another turn of the ratchet. That leaves us relaxed about longer-term energy prices, even if the short-term is unpred