Daily Telegraph29 Apr 2015 08:09
What price a BP takeover bid?: BP is looking increasingly open to a takeover offer after the oil major said that first quarter profits had been hit by the slump in the Brent crude price. The price has to be attractive enough to tempt BP shareholders and ward off any rival bids. The obvious starting point would be the 50% premium that Shell has offered for gas group BG. Looking at BP’s current share price of 472.5p, any offer would have to be above the psychological barrier of 500p. Applying a 50% premium to the current price would give a price of 709p, which would be too good to refuse. This would be above BP’s peak of 655p, recorded just before the Gulf of Mexico disaster in 2010. BP’s results were ahead of analyst expectations, but that masks the struggle at the company. The FTSE 100-listed oil group’s figures were ahead of market expectations largely due to tax cuts affecting the North Sea operations. The oil-producing, or upstream, part of the business reported profits had fallen 73%, and profits from its stake in Russian state-owned company Rosneft were down by 61%, when compared to the previous period. BP is looking like one of the most likely takeover targets for the rest of 2015 and we’d hold on for that premium. BP at 476.1p-0.8p. Questor Says “Hold”.