DIAM18 May 2012 09:44
MARKET COMMENT
The period extending from January till the end of April 2012 was certainly one of the quietest ever witnessed in the diamond market.
This extreme quietness is very much apparent in the performances of the various diamond indices: The PolishedPrices Diamond Overall index decreased over the period by a fairly insignificant 1.8%, while the Composite Rough Diamond Index returned a slightly better but equally unimpressive 2.6%. Moreover, performances alongside various diamond sizes confirmed this sheer lack of dynamics: the RAPI indices for 0.30, 0.50, 1.00 and 3.00 carats returned 1.4, 0.7, -2.9 and -1.6%, respectively, over the period.
This contrasts strikingly both with 2011 price patterns and the current volatility of diamond-related stocks (e.g., Petra diamond was up a staggering 35% over the period, before - quite revealingly - losing most of those gains in the first two weeks of May!).
The objective lack of global macroeconomic visibility at this stage and the fact that the diamond market needed to take a breather after, by all accounts, a very positive 2011 vintage are probably the two main factors that explain diamonds' quiet performance. But this has by no means been synonymous with bearishness yet: first, sentiment remains constructive overall, as was quite apparent at the Hong Kong International Jewellery and BaselWorld Shows; besides, this constructive stance is firmly rooting itself in ongoing cautious supply from the major miners (De Beer's production decreased 16% in Q1 on a year-on-year basis). Second, prices recorded at auctions remain very high indeed, especially for top fancy coloured stones, e.g., an emerald-cut 8.01-carat Fancy Vivid Blue sold in April at Sotheby's Hong Kong for USD 1 595 000 per carat, close to a world record, while a 23.03-carat Fancy Vivid Yellow cushion sold for USD 81 400 per carat at the April Sotheby's New York sale.
All in all, trade may well be disappointingly sluggish at dealers' level but the market still clearly demonstrates an underlying strength and stamina.