ETX21 Jun 2012 17:38
Financials
We have taken the opportunity to update our forecasts upon the latest news. As discovery work ramps up and new projects are added to the clinical pipeline (we are anticipating at least one to be added in 2013), we are forecasting R&D costs of around £5 million and G&A of £1.2 million for financial years 2013. In the following year, we expect to see R&D and G&A remain, more-or-less, the same. In the long-term, however, we expect partners to bear the costs of later-stage trials (Phase IIb and Phase III) and provide collaboration funding. We also expect to see further R&D tax credits . Accordingly, after considering the modest amount of interest that will be received from its large cash stockpile, we are forecasting a respective pre-tax loss of £6.1 million and £6.3 million for FY13 and FY14.
Good share price performance
We are pleased with the share price performance since the start of calendar year 2012. Despite the markets (FTSE All-Share index) pretty much remaining flat since the start of calendar year 2012, e-Therapeutics share price is up more than 33%, and we feel that company has the potential to reap even greater returns for investors.
Valuation
We have tweaked our model slightly in light of the forecast update. So, after discounting to account for the fact that none of the company's compounds have progressed to and through Phase II of the clinical process, we have now derived a Net Present Value of $195 million (£121 million) or a target price of 87p per share. The NPV model does not accrue any value for the unique and fully patent protected drug candidate discovery platform – which should become increasingly valuable as the portfolio expands and more candidates become partnered. Consequently, with the shares currently trading at 34.875p, our stance remains buy.