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FFS there is no farm out! There is therefore no carry and no tax liability.

Give me strength....

Happy .. you sold with Ombrina Mare now imminent?

Wow .. that's an interesting strategy ........ good luck with being out....

Hey LTT,

Hopefully we will hear soon, albeit I would suggest Sam was always going to downplay the amount if he has any sense.Better to under-promise and over deliver!

Personally I don't buy the 'RKH should have done due diligence'. This is a breach of contract with the Energy Charter allowing us to sue for costs and profits so to me its binary.

As such I expect nothing more nothing less.

Much

Great post and find Paul.

Thank you for sharing.

Much

LTT it's not going to be an offer. Its a binding judgement with no right of appeal.

The award will be based on costs and loss of future profits.

Much

Ombrina Mare is now everything.

Deadline for the submission from RKH is tomorrow.

The panel have clearly completed their work re an award and were ready to publish back in August so it will therefore be a case of considering the final submissions re the recent EU commentary re the IEC .

Assuming they will kick it out, I reckon that we'll hear by the end of this month latest.

It's going to be interesting to see how the market is going to square a market cap of £22m with cash of £250m ie 10 x the market cap.

Horrible situation to find ourselves in but things could look very different come November. As a cash shell you could find all manner of companies looking to buy us for our listing with the idea of building a different business out of the listing.

Cash is king.

Thanks for sharing the link.

I think Sam did a good job. He has showed a degree of humility, the Directors have clearly listened and have not been sitting back, however they're clearly hostage to events and have limited control over the timescales re Harbour and Ombrina Mare.

Given this, I'm prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt and see what the outcome of Ombrina Mare is, Harbour's terms and Navitas' plans.

This clearly isn't over yet but we are going to need to be patient for a few more months.....

Much

Thanks for sharing Cyan,

Only scan read with my limited legal knowledge, however the Italians were well and truly sent off with their tails between their legs with not a single one of their claims being upheld.

I suppose you also have to consider as to why the Arbitrators would seek to effectively trash the legality of the very treaty on which their jobs depend?

One positive worth pointing out is the reference to costs in the document which will be addressed so these may well be aware against Italy. Also worth pointing out that for every month of delay, the Italians are going to have to pay 0.5% of the award in interest. If its £250m, that's a cool £750k per month! :)

Also important to stress that the recent update only applies where both parties are EU states.

Given Rockhoper is UK based and registered and we aren't part of the EU there is no way that it could apply. In addition the judgement is not binding but simply an opinion.

Cyan

Like pre-action protocol in a civil case, it's important that all sides are provided with the opportunity to submit all relevant information so that the arbitrators can make a judgement having taken everything into account, regardless of whether it has any legal merit.

This is just a case of the desperate Italians throwing in a last ditch effort before the inevitable.

Naturally their submission will be considered as part of the process, but given it has no legal merit it will have no bearing on the final outcome.

If Italy were to win on they point, the EU is effectively saying it can render all legally binding contractsnull and void for its members when it suits them.

It just a last ditch stalling attempt. If it were to win in this point, every company and government in the world with a contract with an EU government will be shaking in their boots, as effectively they're saying that contracts don't apply to European organisations if it doesn't suit them.

Worth a look at the Navitas presentation from a year ago.

https://ir.navitaspet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Navitas-Capital-Market-Presentation-10.20_Final-web.pdf

Appreciate its a bit out of date, but they are a company with an appetite for a development like Sealion unlike Harbour so with them gone things might get moving with oil at $78 and a supply shortfall on the horizon. Timing is everything and just occasionally the moon and stars align.

Hopefully we will get some sort of news tomorrow.

I’m still concerned about the appetite for a shareholder revolt until we know the outcome of Ombrina Mare, how Sealion reverts to us and what sort of appetite there is out there from other companies re involvement.

If any of you haven't read the presentation, here's where they (Harbour) refer to Sealion ...

Steps taken to align existing portfolio with strategy:
Norway UK
– Sea Lion, Falkland Islands – Burgos Blocks, Mexico
– Ceara Blocks, Brazil

Yes and that's it .... its s if it's a dirty secret that they don't want to talk about, I suspect because it will result in them having poured a lot of money down the drain, a need to stick to commitments and handing the whole thing back to Rockhopper. It's going to be fascinating to see what they're on the line for as surely Sam and the crew would have got the contracts properly sorted in case of them doing this?

They also now don't use their pie chart showing where their future potential sits anymore and appear to have gone all pc by showing themselves as being environmentally friendly.

FFS you're an oil company and your product is going too be needed for the next 30 years plus!

This isn't just about technicals and stock overhang.

Market didn't like their update and they have just walked away from their largest development opportunity in Sealion and instead got into bed with the Mexicans. Good luck with that!

They have also made some rotten hedges and apparently are very secretive and non communicative when it comes to partners and investors. Many were locked out of the conference call yesterday.

I remember Kraft making all sorts of promises about the local Cadburys factory when they took them over only to close down the factory and move everything to Poland 18 months later.

US corporates can't be trusted. I'm not at all confident about this crew or their plans. They're ultimately venture capitalists who would sell their own mother for a quick buck.

Hence I am now out of here.

With inflation taking off and interest rates set to rise Lloyds can just sit back and watch the extra millions roll in over the next 5 years.

Makes this a no brainier at these levels.

Just need to be patient for another 6 months as with the market looking forward 18 months, we should be heading towards fair value of 80p

Strange times but I can’t help but stress that this could literally 10 bag on an announcement of an award night of £250m and don’t finger the interest on the sun charged at 7.5% per annum.

Today we are capitalised at £25m.

I’ll leave you all to work out what we will be capitalised at with £250m in the bank…… definitely don’t want to be out of this one.

Clearly not a fan of Harbour….

I listened in to the webcast this morning but wasn’t invited to the conference call and thus the important Q&A session although just as it finished my request was granted. Harbour said that, according to my notes, despite quality subsurface reserves Sea Lion is a multi-billion dollar, in a remote part of the world with no infrastructure which adds to the risk in capex unit costs. This followed a comment that Harbour ‘won’t undertake high risk, multi-billion dollar long lead time projects’.

Readers know that I have a long standing policy of not writing about or covering companies that I have not met and this applies to Harbour, as any other. Having said that, I know the Premier assets well enough having followed them for a long time and of course a detailed knowledge of Rockhopper itself. As for Harbour with their operational problems and suchlike they are clearly keeping their heads down at the moment, I would like to cover the stock someday.

Going forward this provides an interesting situation for Rockhopper, although Harbour plainly concluded it is a quality asset, they don’t seem to like the risk/reward of Sea Lion but I expect there will be some who do and at $75 I think it flies and especially if Navitas remain on board and perhaps a cheaper or smaller solution can be found, the future could be very exciting.

For those of us who have ridden the Sea Lion specifically, and Falklands in general, play over the years this is just another in the ups and downs of this frontier play, no one said that it would be easy… Having said that this is a very good time to rework the numbers and look at a straightforward technically feasible play, you might say that this is now the challenge of a lifetime…

They must have known this was coming based on conversations with Harbour, so why on earth haven’t they been out and about talking to other potential farm in partners for when the announcement finally came?

Clearly you haven't done your own research Happy or you would be aware that all you have to do is go to a court outside of the EU and get the judgement enforced. London or New York perhaps?

Forgive me but I have neither the time nor inclination to engage further on this however, I will grant you that the delay is somewhat perplexing.

We will see soon enough who is right so perhaps we leave it there and pick up on the day of the announcement.

Much

Happy,

Italy have to pay or they can have assets impounded in non European jurisdictions.

It also counts as. a state default so will impact their credit ratings which will cost them 10 times the payout on their sovereign debt.

They will pay and fast. Please do some research around the Energy Charter before posting such drivel.