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Hey John …. Development of Rockhopper’s Sealion field through to production is 1.6bn. Profitable at $35 a barrel.

Ombrina Mare arbitration judgement for breach of the international energy charter by Italy should be announced any day with Rockhopper expected to receive £250m in damages. About time get very interesting ….

Here you go and yes Italy are a signatory having signed up on the31st January 1969....

The Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards, New York, 10 June 1958 (the New York Convention), is described as the most successful treaty in private international law. It is adhered to by more than 160 nations. The more than 2,400 court decisions reported in the Yearbook: Commercial Arbitration show that enforcement of an arbitral award is granted in almost 90 per cent of the cases.

Its a relatively simple process as you can impound Italian assets. A few Air Italia planes impounded on the runway should focus the minds.

In addition a failure to pay can count as a default which would do wonders for their Moodys rating and increase the cost of their government debt far in excess of whatever they are made to pay us.

They'll pay and fast but will no doubt highlight the injustice to anyone who is willing to listen in the pass and on tv.

Its going to get some serious coverage that's for sure.

Disagree Silver,

This can now only go one way.

Charts say 10p by the end of the week.

Anything around a £200m payout and we'll be trading at 50p instantly.

There will be no chance to buy. Take your positions now ... train is about to leave the station.... last call.

It will simply move there instantly.

To have the claim thrown out under EU law

That's brilliant news. I missed this.

So now its just a case of them making the award plus a couple of months interest.

Any day now. Anyone that sells is off their heads.

Much

Michael may get to find out what it’s like to be caught short with your pants down.

OM could be announced any day now with the price likely to move anything up to 50p in seconds, shorting here is one hell of a gamble!

I'm not so sure JCB.

They need to get raising and fast. A small 0.15 rise to 0.25% is a small step that won't really impact the economy but shows the willingness to move and gets one under the belt ahed of further increases.

Otherwise they are left having to make bigger faster increase in 2022 as a result of being behind the curve.

Good times ahead for Banks off we get back to 2.5% as each 0.25% puts £300m on Lloyds bottom line.

Covgas…..I welcome opinions from all quarters when it comes to the board here, but please at least do a little bit of basic reading and get your head around the fundamentals of companies and shares before you make comments like this.

It really does show a shockingly poor grasp of the stock market and how it works.

Spacehoppa,

OM isn’t going to pay Rockhopper £15m. The costs of the project alone were over £30m and then there are all the profits from the 30m barrels. It will be £250m minimum.

If it was going to be £15m, Italy would have settled and saved themselves all the expense and bother.

They’re doing everything they can to stop the claim and using every trick in the book because they know it’s going to run into hundreds of millions.

They doth protest too much!

Some very, very bullish reading for you over the weekend……enjoy!

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474152-the-historic-oil-bull-market-will-reward-buyers-of-energy-equities

Focus on Mexico (pirates and fraudsters) and the North Sea (about as welcome as a smoker in a refiner) is madness.

Have sold remainder here today and dropped it into Rockhopper. Navitas on board, no political interference and a huge field with no one else to have to worry about, poke their noses in and off the environmentalist radar.

Add in their Ombrina Mare Energy Charter claim and the future looks a lot rosier than here.

No Hoopy .. they managed to get the break even to around $35 dollars before Premier Oil became Harbour and they decided Sealion didn't fit with their strategy of focusing on the North Sea and Mexico....... oops!

Falky,

If everything goes to plan, with oil at $75 RKH would be making the best part of £300m a year profit with more to come as they use the capital generated to open up the region.

Given 450m shares in issue you're saying you would put them on a rate of 1.5x earnings?

Thats a cool 1000% discount to the market which on average assigns a PE of 14

North of £5 is far more likely if OM comes in and we go into production. No reason why a company making £250m plus a year shouldn't be valued at £2bn or 8 time earnings.

Throw in higher oil prices and follow on developments (Isobel etc) and you could be anywhere north of £10 as the oil coming out of the ground enables them to fund future Developments through cashflow.

Thanks Clued but I had kind of worried that one out!:)

Looking good and feel like it has some legs so going to hold and let the trend be my friend until the bend at the end.

Hey LTT,

I actually saw Shell pulling out of Cambo as a positive for us. It’s pretty clear to me that the UK and US are not making oil companies feel very welcme.

To this end I wonder if places like the Falklands which are pretty much off the radar and have a much more welcoming business environments together with lower tax rates might suddenly become highly desirable. The dynamics have changed.

A billion barrels with no political interference and some of the lowest tax rates in the work might suddenly look like a no brainier.

Companies aren’t stupid. If you make life unpleasant enough and create too much regulation, don’t be surprised if they seek out more ‘friendly’ places to do business.

That’s a really interesting point Davde.

Has to be a good chance that quite a few people will simply buy back in with a near 12% profit.

With 500m less shares, there’s a good chance the share price will go quite a lot higher if Covid behaves itself.

Be interesting to see how this plays out.

With shell turning it’s back on the 170m barrel North Sea field and oil now expected to hit $125 in the next few years, I just wonder whether Sealion might get the attention of someone with cash and an appetite for development?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Projected-To-Hit-125-In-2022.html

For once, being off the map and away from the crazy green agenda of western governments might be to our advantage.

Every dog has it’s day…… perhaps ours is about to happen?

Hay Buzz ... I totally agree and have been saying that a serious supply shock is just a couple of years down the road and oil will be $100+ for some time.

Unfortunately and like many on here, I have lost the will to live when it comes to someone coming along with the means and capability to develop Sealion.

Hey Kurgan,

And the market completely agrees with you.

In reality the Rockhopper v Italy ‘case’ is unique and ground breaking and has the potential to create a precedent for a number of companies in similar situations. It’s eagerly awaited and will attract a huge amount of attention and commentary.

To this end there is every reason to remain confident that the payout will be £225m or more.

That’s 50p a share in cash. If you were to find a wallet on the ground worth £5 on eBay but stuffed with cash of £100, what value would you put on it?

For me and once the cash is received, the Board need to either confirm a deal on Sealion or dissolve the company and distribute the net proceeds to shareholders.

With an average price paid of 25p a share, I’d happily take that.

In the meantime no reason why someone wouldn’t decide to take over what would effectively make us a cash shell and use us a s a cheap way to get a stock market listing.