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Hey Falky... think you're being a bit pessimistic here.

50p on a decent OM payout.

£1 + post FID.

£2.50 + ahead of production and if further drilling as part of development uncovers what we think Isobel holds and oil stays above$75 dollars then the sky is the limit.

Big buys going in today so expect it to be above 11p by close.

Had to pull back at some point after the rise from 42p.

Banks and oil all being subjected Ito indiscriminate profit taking today.

Unfortunately nothing ever rises in a straight line.

We'll soon be in a situation whereby someone is going to come along and either buy into Slain or take us out with prices this high.

Sealion is now a complete no brainer.

It's now a question of when not if.

Great find Mogger.

For me it's a positive that we aren't still part of the EU so you aren't talking about 2 EU states and as the writer says towards then end of the piece, the idea that EU law would enable you to sign up to a contract and then renege would be unacceptable by any measure.

Ultimately this will I suspect be referred to a court in the State if the Italian's back track. They have seen fit to follow the arbitration process as they are compelled to do and you can't then decide you don't want to play any more if the decision doesn't go your way.

To quote the writer 'International treaties such as the ICSID and the New York Convention suggest that decisions of the ECJ should have little baring and the award should be enforced'.

Thanks for sharing DEM.

The links are really informative. Not conclusion I can draw is that there is no set formula and that it’s going to be up to the arbitration panel to decide or in all likelihood, for Rockhopper’s solicitor’s to make a case. It’s interesting that there is no mention of inflation and you would have expected the fact that over 4 years the money has become worth considerably less would also be taken into account.

It’s going to be fascinating when the award is finally made public.

Can’t believe it wont be made by the end of the month.

Much

Thanks for sharing DEM. Very insightful.

However the knowns are the amount of recoverable oil so it is effectively the number of barrels of oil multiplied by the profit per barrel which will depend upon what oil price they use. Then interest for 3 - 4 years will be charged which needs to represent not only inflation but the loss of use of that money and any returns that can be obtained from it. For this reason the figure of 7% is not unusual.

So if the payout is in the region of £250m then you can probably add an additional £70m of interest to that in the same way that PPI claims ended up with such huge payouts for the Banks.

The arbitrators will have some very clear formulas acceptable on an industry and legal level so it's not going to be a case of tweaking them to find favour and soften the blow. They'll apply them and if they come out at £350m then so be it.

That's the kind of figure I would be looking for and with oil at over $80 currently it could be more.

Italy haven't fought this for fun. They are genuinely worried and ought to be.

Let it be a lesson for those who enter and then breach contracts. ........

Thanks for sharing LTT.

Completely agree with everything you say.

Much

And I know I say it almost daily but given OM is imminent and that this is like to become a multi bagger in minutes of any announcement , who on earth would sell a single share at this juncture and after waiting all this time?

Much

Just saying.....

Wells Fargo are the best read across to Lloyds as Retail and not investment Bank focused

Suspect 10p is going to be an area of resistance with a few people with sell orders in at this level, however it's not going to be long before we break through the psychological level and head to 12p.

That said any OM positive news and the sky is the limit.

Chart is looking like a coiled up spring ready to break out. Looks like most potential sellers have been shaken out. As I have said before, anyone looking to sell out ahead of OM needs their head tested!

LTI. With inflation at 7% as predicted by Goldman, they will have a choice in name only.

Bank reporting commences today in the US so expect a read across to UK bank shares if the results are good.

Companies reporting are JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo.

They’re behind the curve.

Let’s wait and see, however one way or another they have some serious catching up to do and with inflation at 6% they may not have a choice. Remember higher interest rates underpin sterling which in turn reduces imported inflation via a stronger currency.

Bank of England is well behind the curve.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go straight to 0.75 % come February. Inflation is out of control and we’re now seeing inout prices and wage inflation getting a hold.

I reckon 1.5% by the end of the year is now a distinct possibility.

Lloyds make an extra £350m per annum for every 0.25% rise in the base rate so at least an extra billion per annum profit getting us back to the kind of return you would expect to get from banks historically.

Lloyds remain at a near 50% discount to the market with the yield set to rise inexorably over the next 18 months. This is worth 85p minimum later this year.

Me too! lol

Interesting that someone is back and buying some useful chunks again.

Hopefully we can soon break the 10p resistance.

Should have read bridging loan!

Cyan ... as soon as we have an award confirmed it's highly likely that we will be able to raise interim Bank finance if required. A kind of riding loan I guess in simple terms.

Alternatively and as others have mentioned previously, there is the option to sell on the debt at a discount.

Rest assure the Board will be as keen as the rest of us to avoid a fund raise and dilute their holdings and options.

Much

Hilarious Falky.

Made my day ....:)

Much

Hey Cyan,

I think it's fair to say that the detail you have gone into and understanding of the Rockhopper financials and position demonstrates some serious due diligence and a really in depth understanding of the situation RKH is in and why its trading at just short of 10p.

However I guess from my perspective and whilst I'm not disagreeing with anything you say, its all a bit pointless dwelling on the detail re what monies are owed or we are on the line for when OM sorts all the issues in one go and effectively mitigates the concerns you highlight.

So by all means share your concerns but on the understanding that they only materialise in the event of a OM zero payout.

Much