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Hopefully...
I don't think that would be an unreasonable reflection of the business worth and progress and foundations in place...but there would have to be a major increase in awareness and interest in the share too, to generate some volume. Anyhow seasons greetings to all holders, and best wishes for new year. Hope it's a good one
I think the deal was that king sung would pay regulatory costs. I think further local trials were needed as part of this process, hence in terms of timing for approval I anticipated years rather than months. Re question I've seen no update on progress. There was also a minimum annual order clause I think, but that presumably starts small.
I'm more than happy with what I heard. (no nasty surprises!!)
however, with 11 trades today thus far, my main issue remains with the comms side. I feel that are too few RNS about business matters, other than the standard updates and TR1s. Would be good to have a steady flow of positive news through the year to build momentum. Some of the details in the presentation/report e.g. around phase 1 developments (extra capacity), partnerships, products might have been better in RNS' - providing reassurance that they are busy increasing capacity, developing products and supply chains, sales and exposure. Anyhow, still a good solid business on way to making some decent money - investment to date has been huge to get to this point.
Irrespecitve of where the share price has been TRX have been delivering on promises, and indeed projections. The contrast between this and other aIM shares I foolishly invested in is incredible! good luck all, and lets hope progress continues.
https://ir.tizianalifesciences.com/analyst-report
Just having a look through analyst reports on the TLSA website. (to help decide to hold or sell)...this summary below is from June, with a 12 month target of $3. Note the assumptions however (i.e. of future commercialisation). Shame they can't hit any target dates for trials - but if they do and continue progress then Foralumab could be a blockbuster. Nice to see progress with the alzheimers work also..https://ir.tizianalifesciences.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tiziana-life-sciences-announces-presentation-alzheimers
Tiziana Life Sciences Plc (TLSA)
We base our Buy rating and 12-month price target of $3 per share on a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis of revenue and cash flow projection through 2030. Our projections of free cash flow to the firm from sales of oral foralumab for moderate to severe Crohn’s disease and nasal foralumab for non-active SPMS are adjusted and weighted based on historical regulatory approval rates of similar treatments at similar stages of development. Our DCF analysis applies a WACC-calculated 14.5% discount rate and a 2% terminal growth rate, in line with other clinical-stage biotech companies, yielding an implied enterprise value of $78M. For 2030, the final projected year of our model, we forecast $500M in total risk-adjusted revenue, which assumes a 35% probability of clinical and regulatory success for oral foralumab and 25% for nasal foralumab. Of note, nasal foralumab could potentially pursue approval via orphan drug designation, in our opinion, intended for rare diseases or conditions that affect less than 200,000 individuals in the U.S. Through this regulatory pathway, TLSA will be able to have the agency involved in the early stages regarding the trial design and endpoint selection and likely facilitate expedited approval, given the unmet need. We currently do not ascribe any value in our model to TZLS-501 and milciclib, as we await additional clinical data and subsequent guidance on the regulatory path to market.
In short yes, I do see it going above $1 again. When, who knows, but I'm interested to see what the board do as they actively manage the company with a view to regaining the NASDAQ minimum of $1 to avoid delisting. Meanwhile the MS clinical uses seem to be going well, but where on earth are any of the promised trials!
I was listening while working. It was led by Howard Weiner. A few different clinicians came on to summarize data from the first MS patient. The indications were all positive, and above expectations. And well tolerated etc. The patient had a six week pause from drugs and they noted a decline in this period. They have now initiated a second patient as of January. Weiner noted some positive effects were reported by his doctor already. So, they were very bullish on data thus far. They plan to seek permission for other patients over next year. Outcomes to be reported for both patients in fall or earlier if available. Trial to follow .. likely up to 100 patients. Alzheimer's and ALS...I think are the other conditions they want to target...but that's way off.
So, in summary, it was a positive update re the data from one patient. So caveats apply. Rightly or wrongly It was not shareholder focussed, but clinical focussed.
better...
plus the longer research piece, which I found pretty helpful
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/960997/controlling-disease-using-a-safe-nasal-and-oral-antibody-960997.html/long
Hi Dunk - in general that's right, but there were/are opportunities to speed up various regulatory stages of the trial and indeed to invest in treatments. Compared to investment/focus on vaccines and test and trace etc, the government focus on treatments is (or seems) negligible. Take the recent TILS application for inclusion in the therapies trial for example...not exactly fast track and why wasn't this progressed immediately after the Brazil trial anyway.
hi all - would be interested in views following the update.
Decent progress in lieu of the the product range, sales, expansion capacity and progress to sustainability, but Covid and exchange rates have impacted and of course there is ongoing uncertainty with regard to the former.
Just wondered if there were any particular points in the update that caught people's eyes (good or not so good)
and I'd like a bit of whatever ISATony was drinking...
Just got around to watching presentation - totally on board with Phase 2 expansion plans - got to prove the demand is there first and get toward the 30million extra sales which Phase 1 provides. They have reduced the expected cost of Phase 2 I note also. Onwards and upwards (towards Mr/Ms Tony's SP)
Thanks for replies..
I understand the wait and see approach, but I would have been happier if the board had the confidence to say they would instigate Phase 2 as soon as [whatever their criteria was] rather than place on back burner with the no plans in short or medium term. Investors would have wanted to know that the forecasted demand was there...and £4million was allocated to the Phase 2 expansion.
If cash burn based on last 6 months is circa 420k and they have £6.6 million minus £4million for expansion then we have £2.6 million available (which would last about 6 months). Of course, we anticipate increasing sales in this period (Hardman analyst talked of 30% uplift in H2) and the cash burn should drop each month. So I think we can reach profitability whilst maintaining the money for Phase 2 expansion which is good.
Also...From June 2020 RNS, £1.1. million was allocated to the Phase 1 expansion and would take 6 months. But they report it cost £2.1 million and RNS' show that it took a year (initiated June 2020, completion RNS 28 June 2021).
Curious - why do they report repeatedly that it was on budget (and on time) - with their own figures showing it cost twice as much and took twice as long (lol!). Sorry - I should have asked TRX in investor meet...but didn't make it.
RNS from June 2020...
'The Directors intend to use the net proceeds of the Fundraise as follows with approximately:
· £1.1 million towards the first phase of the Group's expansion programme to increase the manufacturing capacity in San Antonio to sustain future business growth, and general capital expenditure;
· £4.0 million towards the second phase of the Group's expansion programme to increase the manufacturing capacity in San Antonio to sustain future business growth;
· £1.9 million towards R&D and clinical, generating further clinical and health economic real-world data to support brand differentiation of dCELL® and BioRinse™ from competitive products; and
· £5.0 million towards general working capital to support the Company's growth.
It is envisaged that the first phase of the expansion programme will entail the addition of two sterile packaging clean rooms in the existing facility over a six month period. Once fully operational, these additional clean rooms are expected to increase the Group's current BioRinse processing capacity by c.50% and thereby significantly increase the maximum serviceable revenue for the BioRinse product portfolio. It is envisaged that phase two of the expansion programme will entail a further potential ten clean rooms, in the new facility adjacent to the current manufacturing site, expected to take approximately 12 months to complete. The Company intends to bring this new capacity on stream in a managed process to meet demand. Once fully operational, it is expected that this completed expansion programme will increase the Company's revenue generation potential by up to c.$36m per year'
Very happy re cost cutting while expanding. Running a tight ship, which is absolutely what is needed.
In a very good position now going forward to profitability. My only slight disappointment was re Phase 2 expansion - i.e. the implication that this is not needed in the short term (why not?). Was there any discussion of this in the investor talk? (which I will watch if it is available anywhere for a rerun?)
thanks