Member Info for mrc_mrc_mrc_mrd

AA - this is a PR nightmare so not really surprised they haven't bothered. Ruvuma seems to be the only asset now that can be transformational and it has been in a holding pattern forever.

The best we can hope for is a sale and that is not a great story is it!

Also the value ascribed of $20 million is not exactly a game changer. Yes it would double our SP, but for the risk of it not going anywhere for several years it feels to me like there are better opportunities.

That way Tom Cross can keep the farm.

Don't think AB is interested in dutch gas or aberdeenshire wind farms.

I like the idea of a 3 way ;)

PMG and ENQ buy out CNOOCs stake together - PMG with zero cash but farm out of say 70% of their licences. And some split in existing scott production between ENQ and PMG.

A recent article suggest it could be zero cost for CNOOCs stake if the new operator took on decomm liabilities.

It would be another under developed operated hub.

Pelle,

Perth they were looking at a 2 well tie back with each well producing 6kbpd. It needs around $130 million to modify Scott for sour fluids. Thought to be between 75 and 125 m barrels recoverable (I think 2p+c is around 40mbbls.

https://www.parkmeadgroup.com/operations/our_assets/

DEO were looking to develop it with an FPSO in 2012.

Scott itself last I checked was producing around 11 or 12kbpd. It's probably only got a few years left in it without Perth.

Any deal could be well advanced as I have not seen anything since this September article.

"EnQuest (ENQ.L), which can offset future production against past losses for a tax advantage, is looking at the assets together with Sinopec, according to one source."

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-cnooc-m-a-britain-idUKKCN26F1MD

Would be a good addition if they can also work something out with Parkmead for the PDL fields as tiebacks.

I didn't notice that there were rumours of ENQ interest in Scott. I do think it's a great fit - maybe a 3 way deal to get PMG a stake in Scott and divide up perth between the new scott partners? Would be good to have some production income to fund the perth development.

"EnQuest (ENQ.L), which can offset future production against past losses for a tax advantage, is looking at the assets together with Sinopec, according to one source."

CNOOC might have been worn down and pay the price TC is asking. I know they were trying to sell Scott but can't see it being worth anything without perth etc in the mix

I'm not convinced enough data is available to predict. The market will decide whether there is a demand /supply problem, and price equilibrium will emerge.

Obviously there is not currently a problem because there is opec+ restraint and weak demand due to Covid. How these forces develop will play a big part.

The other big unknown is shale. Will capital be available to ramp back up? Where is peak shale? Is there a lag to get the supply chain back in shape?

Chilting - I don't have anything to hand but the majority of growth in production over the last 5 years came from US shale and projects sanctioned pre 2015 crash.

I'm sure there will be some data out there to back this up. And yes, this is my opinion until I can be bothered providing some supporting evidence.

Someone like E121 would be able to give more guidance on shale and investment / time required to ramp that back up.

One thing I am sure of is that there are physical restrictions on how quickly supply can be brought back to pre pandemic levels.

Most people are bullish oil now and growing calls that we are entering a super cycle period. Makes perfect sense to me as someone involved with the oil industry. There has been zero investment in long term projects. Most of the production growth came from shale and that will (in my opinion) not get the level of investment needed to respond quickly enough once demand returns.

The world can not produce anywhere near the 100 million odd barrels it was producing before the pandemic.

Expect anything for a while?

Gneiss engaged by BPC to manage their farm out process.

Therapist,

Great analysis. Keep it up, much appreciated.

Colin

The project was a disaster for ENQ (sanctioned at $100 plus oil...) but the FPSO performed well as far and had good uptime.

Enquest Producer had a major refurb in 2014. Marine system, hull and topsides.

She is good to go IMHO but will need a sweetening plant and probably some other mods to the topsides (as Scott will of we go that route). It has 2 brand new steam turbine generators which I don't think we're ever commissioned but could be I'm sure...

Both would have a similar carbon footprint...FPSO could potentially extract a lot quicker (plan for Scott was 1 or 2 wells). Would improve unit opex if we can have higher Bpd.

Lol @ ZFG

Clear your filters man! We are all on board!!

Just imagine what will happen when the volume really picks up!!

This is just the start.

Looks like perth could come into play soon the way POO outlook is. It's going to be a seller's market. A few NS FPSOs coming free from ENQ so scott not the only game in town.

Chinese will want to grab as many barrels as they can.

Hedging is insurance.

We can afford to self insure for the most part.

We should follow similar strategy as always of hedging capex and debt repayments.

I think the 4 million barrel hedge was a prudent thing to do for H1, but it looks like it will result in a substantial hedging loss.