Member Info for mrc_mrc_mrc_mrd

Lol, I thought this would be a great opportunity for you to buy the dip?

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/india-in-no-mood-to-concede-defeat-in-cairn-energy-tax-case-to-appeal-against-arbitration-award/articleshow/81104800.cms

Seems like a can kicking exercise rather than any real chance of winning. Looks like we will have to send the bailiffs in.

Strong into the close yesterday and blue finish in spite of oil looking a bit toppy!

I would say we have a big buyer accumulating. 18p is a significant resistance point but the buyers seem happy to mop up.

KO,

I hope you are not fibbing!

Always buying and never selling like a good LTH is the best way to be IMHO!!

Lol, KO sold out it seems

I hope so too! Nothing would surprise me with this cynical BOD though.

The solo model of being an "investor" has not worked. SCIR needs to be a company that adds value, not just cash.

AA, yes, looks like a good addition. I would suggest we get rid of the remaining incumbents.

They have succeeded only in enriching themselves.

I am for Cairn holding firm...really anything less than full payment of the award looks appalling for India.

They could have settled for a lower sum prior to the award, but now the award has been given they should pay in full.

To be clear - these are the same guys that promised we would be a mid cap oil and gas company within 3 years. They thought they could turn a £20 million market cap into a £200 million market cap ++ through savvy deals.

Well that didn't work.

Now they have a goal of £150 million EV in 5 years, with a significant amount of that EV attributed to debt and not to equity.

Aimster - no sour grapes, just an honest discussion.

The dream is they sell Ruvuma for $20 million and reinvest it.

The reality (and I believe consensus on this BB) is that a Ruvuma transaction is probably about 12 months away and will require funding to the tune of $5.7 million in the interim.

I'm not sold on the direction the BOD have set SCIR on (yes another new strategy!?). We are divesting from a sector which is thought by many to be entering a new supercycle. And we are investing in a sector which is thought to be in a bubble.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-commodities-kemp-column-idUSKBN2AG261

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-22/tesla-and-other-green-energy-investments-look-bubble-like

Hi AA - they tried to raise £20 million when the SP was around double what it is now for the last deal. We never did find out what discount that would have been offered at because the deal fell through. Or indeed whether they would have got it away at all.

Its a consideration for any deal. It can be palatable if the deal is good. I fail to see what value SCIR add to any acquisition in a sector they know little about. I think we need a new BOD. The current BOD has failed.

Away to watch the presentation and give the announcement a proper read through.

Both the india UK BIT and the PCA rules for arbitration state that the ruling is final and binding.

I think india are at the end of the line.

From the ruling RNS

"The tribunal ruled unanimously that India had breached its obligations to Cairn under the UK-India Bilateral Investment Treaty and has awarded to Cairn damages of US$1.2billion plus interest and costs, which now becomes payable."

My view that if it is now payable then it is enforceable now. Cairn could seize assets and get the money before any appeal deadline.

Sipp
From the recent presentation:
"2021 forecast unit opex of c.$5/Boe; field life forecast opex/capex at c.$20/Boe."

We don't know capex this year, and we need to deduct 40% tax from all FCF between Jan 1st and completion.

For fag packet purposes I think an assumption that unit opex for full 60k barrels of $27 is reasonable.

Sipp
From the recent presentation:
"2021 forecast unit opex of c.$5/Boe; field life forecast opex/capex at c.$20/Boe."

We don't know capex this year, and we need to deduct 40% tax from all FCF between Jan 1st and completion.

For fag packet purposes I think an assumption that unit opex for full 60k barrels of $27 is reasonable.

Bullish into the close.

AA - no I'm not talking about Enquest, and not trying to bash this. They will need money to make this acquisition though, and it would be better for existing holders if the placing is at a higher SP (can't see any way of not having some equity in the funding mix - same as at ENQ)

Do you think there will be a placing?

Also there is high demand for renewable assets. We will pay a premium for that as we are competing with all these other cash shells for good quality assets.

Thanks
Colin

Beefy - I guess, but don't know for sure, that any appeal would need to be based on new evidence or procedural flaws.

Could happen but I would guess it will get thrown out pretty quick on the assumption it has no merit.

She's on the move again!!

Someone wants in here IMHO. Strong buying when it goes below 18p.

Consolidating nicely before the next rise up IMHO

"The only option on the table for a settlement for the Indian government is making use of the Vivad se Vishwas direct tax dispute settlement scheme. Under this, the principal tax demand is to be paid while the interest and penalty are waived"

Does this mean we would get the $1.2 billion? I would be happy enough with that if it means a prompt payment.