Member Info for MrAltruistic

May the best man win.

Ding... ding...

So as I understand it:
a) £10 for a 12 round decider and
b) £10 to see if the price at close of Business on Wednesday 20th May 2020 finishes higher than 102.74p

If that’s your negotiated wager terms, then your on!

WMMG.... Wow! Asking me to future guess closing prices In this market is an almost impossible game.

However, as a sporting gesture I’ll make you a slightly different counter offer. What do you say we treat the next 12 working days like a boxing match and score each day as a round?

e.g. Monday 4th May 2020 is Round 1, Tuesday 5th is Round 2 etc. At close of each business day, if the share prices has reduced from the close of the previous day, I win the round. If the share price has increased from the previous close then you win the round. Typically in Boxing the winner of the round scores 10 points and the loser 9 points.

After 12 rounds i.e. by close of business on Wednesday 20th May 2020, whoever has lost the majority of rounds makes a £20 donation to the Winners chosen charity?

What do you say? Seconds Out....

WMMG, total respect to you. Thanks for your response.

It will be very interesting to see how it pans out over the next couple of weeks or so. Really interesting how two people can see the same situation and have two healthy different points of view as to the direction of travel.

I sincerely wish you every success.

As a sweeping statement, I would like to think that we all agree that this stock is a good long term investment with its current share price grossly undervalued by whatever yardstick you choose to measure it by.

However... and from my perspective it is a big however, I sense the good news of last week has now passed and the price of this stock will continue to gradually deflate over the next 2 to 3 weeks. Like a balloon left sellotaped to the corner of the ceiling, the deflation won’t be quick or rapid but it will go down. A few pence today, then no visible change, then a few more pence a day or so later and so on and so forth.

I am looking to buy back in to this stock but as the old Italian saying goes “Life is all, about timing”. I will monitor for the next 2 to 3 weeks and if the price reaches my goal purchase price of around 85p or so, then I will look to buy in again. I sense this is the direction of travel for this stock over the next few weeks.

Remember, stick with your OWN strategy... or closely to it i.e.

If I can make a net profit of 20% in 60 days or less, then I normally take profits and look to reinvest in the future. Otherwise I look to hold for 12 to 18 months.
When looking to buy, never chase the price. Look for 3 day trends both up but especially down.
With any profits you make, look at what you actually made, rather than what you could have made.

Yes, we all understand the basic principle when the share price is going down of “If you don’t sell, you can’t lose money”. But at the same time remember when the share price is going up “If you don’t sell, you can’t bank profit”.

The best you can hope for in this arena is to buy close to what turned out to be the bottom and sell at what turned out to be close to the top. If you can do this, then you are doing very well.

Above all else, if your timing when buying was completely wide of the mark, then you have two choices. Either set a stop loss, or if you believe in the future then put them in the bottom drawer and come back in 12 to 18 months.

Thank-you to those that were good enough and patient enough to read my ramblings.

Good Luck All.

Good Evening all,

I normally do not share my opinions but tonight I am in a positive reflective mood.

The following statements are purely my current views and humble opinions based on nothing more than my 32 years of, on the whole, positive trading, past experiences and gut feel.

You are at liberty to agree and/or disagree with pleasure but if you could share your views in response then that would be more conducive and I would be happy to listen.

In the current climate, the stock market appears to over reacting in an exaggerated manner, both positively and negatively to sentiment rather than fundamentals.

Some significant weekly, if not daily, profit and losses can easily be achieved with unexpected shock jumps either way. There appears to be no real rhyme or reason to what is happening at the moment. Classic roller coaster price movements in a day, let alone a week. Especially when the likes of Elon Musk advises to the world that his Tesla stock is overvalued and he intends to sell all his assets!? WTF?

I honestly can’t remember in all my time trading the last time any stock I held jumped up by more than 10% after it announced to the Market that it has put more than £2Bn aside for future Bad Debts and a reduction of profits by more than 40% quarter on quarter.

The rules of the game appear to have been torn up, thrown in the air and are blowing in the wind.

At this moment in time it would appear that we are all currently day traders, whether by design, desire or simply by association. Similarly, whether physically getting our hands ‘dirty’ by transacting or watching stock movements from the side lines, we are all looking to pounce - whether to buy or sell.

Warren Buffet always invests in companies with strong fundamentals. He also takes profits when he feels stock is overpriced and a big drop is due. To be fair he has not done to bad over the years, has he?

In relation to Barclays, as far as fundamentals go there are plenty to choose from, pick n mix your own accordingly. I don’t over do the ratios but always look to P/E, P/BV, ROE and Dividend Cover and compare them against its direct competitors.

My list, whilst not exhaustive or particularly scientific includes some of my own basic fundamentals of:

A FTSE 100 member - Barclays remains one of,circa 30 original members since its formation in 1984.
A significant trading history having weathered war, crisis and political change - Barclays has been around since 1690.
A strong Balance Sheet - CET1 +13
Consistently producing profits year in year out with only the occasional bump in the road.
A consistent Dividend payer.
A business that adapts to change with products and services and doesn’t get left behind e.g. Nokia, Kodak, Olivetti etc.
An omni channel offering to its buying consumers e.g. Online, by App, phone, High Street.
An operating model that differentiates itself from its competitors e.g Barclays Investment Bank.
A clear vision for its future.

WHITEGHOST... Thank-you for your kind words. Good Luck with your Stock. I have absolutely no idea what will happen to this share price tomorrow let alone in 3 months time. But as per my previous post, I will watch from a distance and if I see any continued downward charting trend, I will wet my beak with the knowledge of worst case scenario... a bottom drawer 12-18 month investment.

Good Luck All

Swimfan, Outside of ISA... Price continues to climb but i am not ungrateful.

I always look at what I actually made NOT what I could have made.

As, I was always told. If you’re going to have free lunch, always leave some crumbs on the table.

Best of Luck All.

I have decided to take my profits. Got in at 85.68p Got out at 105.334. With a return of 22.94% in just 28 days, I see that as a Good Return.

Will now watch from a distance and if Bad News or a FTSE correction affects this stock in the near future, may look to buy back in but for potentially A 12 to 18 month hold.

Good Luck Everyone.

I am generally confused by the Motley Fool? One day they say 100% buy... next day 100% avoid. Is this classic journalism of betting both ways only to say in the future “We told you!”

Reminds me of the Daily Mail front page headlines....

March... “Barbecue Summer for weeks”
June... “Washout Summer expected”

Pt. 2.

In my view, the Barclays share price reflects this reality. Although the stock isn’t without risk, I suspect that the bank’s share price will be a lot higher in five years. I’d view 150p as a reasonable target.

Where will the Barclays share price be in 5 years?

Roland Head, Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance Sunday 26 April 2020

Big banks have been among the biggest losers in this year’s stock market crash. The Barclays (LSE: BARC) share price has fallen by 50% so far this year, compared to a fall of around 25% for the FTSE 100.

This drop has left Barclays shares trading at a 65% discount to its December net asset value of 262p. Although I expect bad debts to rise after the coronavirus pandemic, I think it’s possible that the shares are now too cheap to ignore.
Should we be buying Barclays shares? I’ve been taking a closer look at the numbers to find out more.

Did Barclays really need to cut its dividend?

Last year’s results from Barclays were pretty encouraging, in my view. Underlying pre-tax profit rose by 9% to £6.2bn, while the group’s return on tangible equity improved from 8.5% to 9%.

The bank’s balance sheet looked good to me, too. Barclays’ common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio rose from 13.2% to 13.8% – well above the minimum required by the regulator. Lending levels remained fairly cautious, with loans accounting for just 82% of deposits.

If 2020 had been a normal year, I’d have expected the Barclays share price to make good progress. Unfortunately, 2020 won’t be normal. And because this is the first serious crisis since the 2008 crash, everyone is nervous.

I think this is why none of the banks really complained about being forced to cancel their dividends by the regulator. They know they’re on probation. And they know that they must cope with the aftermath of the pandemic without being seen to profit from government rescue money.
However, if the banks come through this situation successfully, I think investors might finally start to trust them again. If I’m right, I think the Barclays share price could re-rate to a level that’s much closer to its book value.

Can the bank handle bigger losses?

As a value investor, I’ve been tempted by Barclays shares for a long time. To get an idea of how risky the stock could be in a recession, I’ve been looking at the bank’s ability to absorb losses.

At the end of 2019, the bank had £345bn of loans and advances to customers. Against this total, the bank has already set aside £6.3bn for expected losses. That’s gives an impairment rate of about 1.8%.

How much worse will this figure get? I don’t know. But if Barclays found that 5% of its loans were not going to be repaid, impairments would rise to £17.3bn. I estimate that this would reduce the group’s net asset value to around 195p per share.

At the time of writing, the Barclays share price is just 90p. The market appears to be pricing in much bigger losses.

What’s next for the Barclays share price?

Barclays has been in business since 1736. I don’t think coronavirus is going to wipe the bank out. However, ultra-low interest rates and higher loan losses could make life difficult for the next couple of years

Company-specific factors 

Looking specifically at each bank, a check-list of questions was offered for investors by analyst Nicholas Hyett at Hargreaves Lansdown:

· Has the increase in demand for funding from companies led to a significant increase in lending in certain areas?
· Have we already seen a spike in bad loans and what provisions are banks making for future defaults?

· What’s happened to net interest margins (which measures the difference between the interest the bank charges on loans and what it pays for funding) after the BoE rate cut earlier in the year?

Giving the first indication on Tuesday of the sector's performance will be the biggest of the lot, HSBC PLC (LON:HSBA), where its exposure to China and the rest of Asia will be in particular focus, while its business also straddles the UK and US.

Alongside the cancellation of dividends, the bank flagged that credit performance had held up well but the pandemic was having an effect on some revenues and valuation adjustments and lifting expected credit losses, with UBS forecasting US$1bn of charges.

Mould noted that, with results from Wall Street banks this earnings season showing growth in both loans and deposits but with deposits growing much faster, "it will be interesting to see if HSBC’s clients also made a dash for cash".

Barclays PLC (LON:BARC) is forecast to remain profitable despite taking £1bn of impairments by UBS, where analysts are also anticipating its investment bank will see £600mln of mark-to-market losses in the first quarter.

For Standard Chartered PLC (LON:STAN), UBS forecasts revenues and pre-provision profits to be down only slightly, with ongoing loan losses of US$416mln

At Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LON:LLOY) the performance of its wealth management joint venture with Schroders will be worth noting, said Hyett.

“We’ll also be paying particular attention to lending trends in the higher risk credit cards, unsecured lending and car finance divisions which have become increasingly important in recent years.”

UBS forecasts Lloyds will take around £1bn of impairments, assuming “fairly material one-off charges relating to life insurance volatility and similar mark-to-market issues below the line” in the quarter.

Finishing off the week, Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (LON:RBS) is seen taking less than £700mln of impairments, with pre-provision profits more than halved to just below £1bn from the £2.2bn seen in the last quarter of 2019.

Banks, oilers, pharmaceuticals, and supermarkets... in coming week.

Calum Muirhead 13:25 Fri 24 Apr 2020 proactive investors .co .uk

The final week of April will see updates from some of the market’s big hitters including banks, oil supermajors, pharmaceutical giants, supermarkets and high street retailers.

Banks are going to be the main theme on the business agenda in the coming week, with not only investors but also regulators and the Treasury keeping an eye on rising loan losses during the coronavirus crisis.

The quarterly earnings reports are spaced out over the week, with HSBC on Tuesday, Barclays and Standard Chartered on Wednesday, Lloyds on Thursday and RBS in its traditional Friday spot.

Unlike other sectors that have rallied from the worst lows, banks have been some of the worst blue chip performers since the start of the year, with the FTSE bank index down more than 40%, compared to the near-23% decline for the FTSE 100 and a 30% loss for the FTSE 250.

One of the causes was that the last we heard from most of the sector was on the first of April when all five of the UK’s top banks suspended their dividend payments and staff bonuses after a request from the Bank of England to preserve cash during the crisis, removing the main investment case for holding banking shares in a low interest rate environment.

The share performance also reflects market concerns over how loan losses could eat into balance sheets and also, says analyst Russ Mould at AJ Bell, “implies that investors have real doubts as to whether banks’ return on equity will ever consistently exceeds their cost of capital”.

Andrew Bailey, the new BoE governor, recently said the central bank was watching closely to make sure banks do not repeat the mistakes they made in the financial crisis and was keen to avoid another credit crunch for small firms.

However, he said banks now have much stronger balance sheets than they did in the run-up to the financial crisis, but that stress tests have not included the effects of a pandemic such as with Covid-19.

Recent bank share prices are pricing in “a severe downturn”, said analysts at Barclays, who expect the combination of painful rate cuts and weak activity to drive pre-provision profits down around 20% year-on-year.

“Lending under a government guarantee is a potential source of revenues/returns. But we think banks could be loss-making if probability of default approaches c10% (without security)”, the Barclays analysts said.

Number crunchers at UBS said this bank earnings season could see “material” pressure on CET1 capital ratios from growth in risk-weighted assets, but they were optimistic about how the sector’s shares could bounce back.

M&G (LSE: MNG) has seen its share price slide 47% year-to-date. The FTSE 100 asset and pension manager’s outlook is highly uncertain at present. However, it has a substantial amount of cash and a solid balance sheet. This should provide some protection against the unprecedented challenges facing the financial services sector.
Looking ahead, the asset manager’s shares could remain unpopular among investors in the short run. But M&G’s size, as well as its reputation among investors around the world, should help it weather the storm and generate a strong recovery when things return to normal.
What’s more, unlike many of its peers, M&G hasn’t yet announced a dividend suspension.
After recent declines, the stock offers a yield of 14%. It’s also trading at a discount P/B of 0.6, providing a wide margin of safety as well as income appeal at current levels.

Rupert Hargreaves | Friday, 24th April, 2020 | Motley Fool

Aviva, Barclays and M&G

The FTSE 100 has staged a small recovery from its recent market crash. However, the index is still down around 25% year-to-date. Some stocks are stuck with even more significant declines.
Therefore, while some companies have seen a substantial recovery in their shares over the past few weeks, there’s still a wide range of stocks that trade on low valuations. Over the long run, these investments could offer recovery potential and yield high returns for investors. With that in mind, here are my top three FTSE 100 value stocks to buy now.

Aviva (LSE: AV) recently told shareholders it wouldn’t pay them a dividend in June. Instead, the firm is potentially delaying it until the fourth quarter of 2020. This is disappointing. But it could be an excellent opportunity for long-term investors.
Having fallen by 47% since the start of the year, Aviva’s share price appears to offer a wide margin of safety. It now trades on a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of around 0.6, which is relatively low compared to many of its industry peers. The insurance industry P/B sector average is 1.1.
Because Aviva is one of the UK’s largest pension managers, its financial performance is likely to be less impacted by the current lockdown than many of its FTSE 100 index peers.
And while the firm has put dividends on ice for when things return to normal, the company’s yield could hit 13%. This suggests the stock could offer excellent value for money as well as an attractive income return.

Shares in Barclays (LSE: BARC) have fallen around 55% since the beginning of the year. Investors have been dumping shares in the FTSE 100 bank due to the uncertain economic outlook facing the wider industry.
A combination of weak business confidence and low-interest rates could hit the bank’s earnings and lead to losses in the near term. However, Barclays’ strong balance sheet puts it in a relatively stable position to overcome the current economic uncertainty.
Even though its recovery may not be smooth or swift, Barclays is now trading at one of its lowest levels since the darkest days of the financial crisis. Shares in the bank are dealing at a P/B ratio of 0.2, half of the banking sector average.
With this being the case, the stock appears to offer a wide margin of safety. These numbers suggest Barclays could deliver an attractive return for long-term investors from current levels.

Amilia Stone 23rd April 2020 *************interviews . Com

Barclays PLC with EPIC/TICKER (LON:BARC) had its stock rating noted as ‘Retains’ with the recommendation being set at ‘BUY’ today by analysts at HSBC.

Barclays PLC are listed in the Financials sector within UK Main Market. HSBC have set a target price of 160 GBX on its stock. This now indicates the analyst believes there is a possible upside of 81.8% from today’s opening price of 88 GBX.

Over the last 30 and 90 trading days the company share price has decreased 8.02 points and decreased 85.52 points respectively. The 52 week high share price is 192.99 GBX while the 52 week low is 73.04 GBX.

Barclays PLC has a 50 day moving average of 122.22 GBX and the 200 Day Moving Average price is recorded at 153.69. There are currently 17,332,160,550 shares in issue with the average daily volume traded being 114,687,180. Market capitalisation for LON:BARC is £15,306,030,558 GBP

IG . Com Aaran Fronda | Financial writer, London | Thursday 23 April 2020 18:53

The big four UK banks all unveil their first quarter (Q1) results next week, with investors interested to see just how large of an impact of the coronavirus crisis has had on the industry.

So far this year, the unprecedently challenging market conditions have seen Lloyds, Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) shares fall by more than 50% on a year-to-date (YTD).

HSBC has also seen its shares slump too, down 30% YTD, but the stock has remained more resilient during the Covid-19 crisis than its rivals, with investors hopeful that the lender will benefit from its strong presence in Asia which could emerge from the Covid-19 crisis earlier than other markets.

Speaking more broadly about the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on UK banks, analysts at Barclays said that while ‘potential for losses is high’ it believes that bank shares ‘effectively price in a severe downturn’.

‘We estimate current valuations imply £70bn of aggregate losses for our UK banks, or 50% off domestic bank capital,’ Barclays said in a note.

‘We expect a combination of painful rate cuts and weak activity to drive pre provision profits down circa 20% year-on-year,’ Barclays added. 'Likely strong Q1 trading income could prove to be an aberration.’

PRA requests UK banks suspend dividend

Much to the disappointment of shareholders, Britain’s largest lenders complied with guidance from the Bank of England (BoE) and suspended dividend pay-outs in 2020.

The big four, along with Santander and Standard Chartered all said that they would cancel their dividends for the 2019 financial year and agreed to refrain from making any pay-outs to shareholders in 2020. The banks even promised to cancel any share buyback initiatives too.

The Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA), the supervisory division of the BoE, welcomed the dividend cancellations and not having to take any formal action against any UK banks.
The PRA hopes that by keeping cash on lenders balance sheets, rather than in shareholders pockets, it will help the industry offset some of the impact of the Covid-19 crisis.

The regulator also expects banks not to pay any cash bonuses to senior staff over the coming months.

Analysts optimistic on Barclays outlook

9:23am Thursday 23 April 2020 by Ben Hobson Stockopedia . com

The Barclays (LON:BARC) share price has risen by 3.54% over the past month and it’s currently trading at 87.61. For investors considering whether to buy, hold or sell the stock, the question now is whether this price run will continue.

According to the company’s analysts, there are certainly reasons to think it will continue to perform well in the year ahead. In terms of trading recommendations, Barclays currently has:
5 Buy recommendations
6 Hold recommendations
0 Sell recommendations

This suggests that analysts are generally positive about the outlook.
At its current price of 87.61, shares in Barclays are trading at a discount of -54.6% to its 52 week high price. The 1-year performance of the shares has been -47.4%.
While analyst forecasts can be a useful guide to what City 'experts' think about a stock's near term future, they can be unreliable.

WHITEGHOST, thanks for your reply. No offence caused to me whatsoever my good man. Buona Fortuna with your investments.... makes my £20k seem like loose change. Let’s see what tomorrow brings ehh?