The Daily Telegraph - Forecast of Barclays first-half results: Wednesday 29 July 202028 Jul 2020 19:37
The Daily Telegraph - Forecast of Barclays first-half results: Wednesday 29 July 2020
The second-quarter results from the American banks have probably set the tone here, with lower loan margins, a strong investment banking performance and higher provisions for loan losses all likely trends. Note that the Big Four Main Street banks in the US took an additional $33 billion in charges to cover possible bad loans in Q2 alone, the highest number since Q3 2009 just as America was staggering out of the financial crisis.
At the time of recording, the analysts’ consensus estimate is expecting Barclays to make a pre-tax profit of £491m for the second quarter, compared to £1.5bn made in Q2 2019 and £913m in Q1 2020.
It seems unlikely that there will be a first-half dividend, given calls from the Financial Conduct Authority to cancel payments (and share buybacks) in 2020 to buttress the balance sheet and enable Barclays to lend more, should demand be there. Intriguingly, year-on-year loan growth slowed at the Big Four US Main Street banks to 1.5pc from 7.1pc in Q1.
Barclays may still have wiggle room to declare and pay some form of dividend for calendar 2020 alongside its fourth-quarter results in early 2021, should management feel this is appropriate. This may explain why analysts still believe Barclays will offer a 2p per share dividend for 2020, ahead of a rebound to 6.1p in 2021, even if there will be no interim dividend this year.