Member Info for MrAltruistic

Sunday will be here before we know it. The PM and European Commission President say that’s when ‘a decision will be made’. But based on all the other false dawns in these talks, be warned: Sunday’s decision could be ‘deal’, ‘no deal’ or ‘let’s keep talking, a little while longer‘ Remember: none of us are in the negotiating room. Let's see Sunday.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

What I learned today...

At the Morning Press Conference of Friday 11 December the President of the European Commission,Ursula Von Der Leyen, brought Journalists up to date on what she had briefed the EU Leaders on in relation to a Trade Agreement with the UK. Predictably it included the three outstanding issues with the UK of Fish, a Level Playing Field and Resolving EU Disputes should rules be broken.

What Von Der Leyden said during the conference was “We will decide on Sunday whether we have conditions for an agreement or not”.

There has been much speculation via the media as to whether that was a hard deadline for getting a deal, or whether it’s just a deadline for deciding if a deal was still possible.

Now I don’t know about you but to me that sounds like it’s very much the latter? When it comes to the Sunday deadline, to me, It’s not a deadline to make a deal, but a deadline to decide if a deal is still possible.

The one mantra that I’ve stuck to throughout this torturous Brexit pantomime process is that “Fake” deadlines are “Fake” and “Real” Deadliness are “Real”. The only Real deadline left is the 31st December 2020. So if a deal is to be done the EU will find a means to fudge or skirt all the problems of ratification that we hear so much about and they will get a deal done before the 31st December.

To me, Sunday’s deadline is just another one of those transient deadlines that comes and goes to try and focus minds. Whilst achieving a deal is still difficult it is also still possible.

Good Luck All.

What I learned today...

At the Morning Press Conference of Friday 11 December the President of the European Commission,Ursula Von Der Leyen, brought Journalists up to date on what she had briefed the EU Leaders on in relation to a Trade Agreement with the UK. Predictably it included the three outstanding issues with the UK of Fish, a Level Playing Field and Resolving EU Disputes should rules be broken.

What Von Der Leyden said during the conference was “We will decide on Sunday whether we have conditions for an agreement or not”.

There has been much speculation via the media as to whether that was a hard deadline for getting a deal, or whether it’s just a deadline for deciding if a deal was still possible.

Now I don’t know about you but to me that sounds like it’s very much the latter? When it comes to the Sunday deadline, to me, It’s not a deadline to make a deal, but a deadline to decide if a deal is still possible.

The one mantra that I’ve stuck to throughout this torturous Brexit pantomime process is that “Fake” deadlines are “Fake” and “Real” Deadliness are “Real”. The only Real deadline left is the 31st December 2020. So if a deal is to be done the EU will find a means to fudge or skirt all the problems of ratification that we hear so much about and they will get a deal done before the 31st December.

To me, Sunday’s deadline is just another one of those transient deadlines that comes and goes to try and focus minds. Whilst achieving a deal is still difficult it is also still possible.

Good Luck All.

I suspect the Dividend news “leaked” to the stock market at around 4.00pm yesterday? The share was continuing it’s deflating slide right up until circa 15.55 hrs where the price was approximately 140.36p.... then BANG... for no clear reason it jumped to 143.96p before returning to edge down. The positive news perhaps stopping the drop?

If a No Deal Trade Agreement has been priced into the markets then I would expect the share to open on Down Side, reach a new resistance level and bounce sideways. But who knows? The sooner a decision is categorically confirmed either way, the better for everyone.

All IMHO please MYOC and GLA.

A little more detail here as to rationale of the ratio to be used for potentially Dividend distribution.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-bank-dividends-restarted-covid-19-coronavirus-bank-of-england-pra-165947667.html

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/banks-allowed-restore-dividends-173029370.html

Summary:

It looks to us that 2021 is going to be a challenging year for Lloyds Bank investors. There is still likely to be some further upside to what has been a heavily sold share. We’re not adding Lloyds Bank to our watch list because it still faces choppy waters ahead, not least the lack of a resolution of Brexit talks and the impact of Covid-19 on UK employment; unlike the travel sector, the vaccine is not going to be the shot in the arm Lloyds needs to get back to a share price of 60p.

https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/lloyds-bank-shares-brexit-covid/

Understanding that the Journalist submitted his piece at circa 9.00am this morning, the sentence of “ Barclays share price is down by more than 1.25% today as investors continue worrying about the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. The shares are trading at 144.40p.” Is NOT technically accurate as the shares actually ended fractionally Up at 146.36p.

That said, the key paragraph for me is:

“ Barclays Bank has an edge - Unlike other banks like Lloyds and NatWest, Barclays generates vast amount of income abroad. It also has a large trading franchise, that would help cushion it from a full-scale crisis. Indeed, the Corporate and Investment Bank (CIB) division has helped the bank be profitable this year.

In addition to the CIB bank, another catalyst for Barclays share price is that the bank could actually write back some of the bad debt it provisioned this year. That’s because, according to the new IFRS accounting standards, the bank is required to “recognise upfront lifetime loan provisions.”

Another potential catalyst for Barclays is that the bank is in a strong financial position. This means that it could return back to paying dividends in the coming year.”

https://www.investingcube.com/barc-is-barclays-share-price-ripe-for-a-bullish-breakout/

Good to see that the 150p barrier was broken today at 150.09p for all of 60 second! Let’s just hope for Goodness sake that this EU Trade Talks Pantomime can be resolved once and for all over the weekend?

PSK, no problem for the confusion. Good luck my friend. Looking for Barclays to open marg8nally higher today and, fingers crossed , finish the week 150p+

PSK, I suspect this message was meant for the (NWG) Natwest Group PLC? The Government have no stake in Barclays and therefore having nothing to sell?

Elgrebe, I believe Warren Buffet is perhaps one of the best known Contrarian Investors out there...“be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful”. As you rightly say, Barclays being a classic example of a Contrarian Investment. The caveat with Contrarian investing is not falling for a Value Trap... a damn sight easier said than done. Let’s see if Barclays can end the week 150p+

All IMHO please MYOC and Good Luck

Elgrebe, I guess there is always “market noise” around. The simple question I ask myself is from the information and research you have, does the market noise either confirm or contradict yours? If it contradicts it... why? Similarly if it confirms it... do the reasons match yours? At the end of the day, I like to keep things relatively simple.

My two learns are:

1. Try not to get emotional with your investments, it clouds your judgement.
2. Beware of Disruptors, they will “convince” you that they know the future, then disappear when proven wrong.

All IMHO please MYOC and Good Luck my friend.

Deutsche's Noble favours Barclays... His only other ‘buy’ recommendation in the sector is Virgin Money.

A more expansive article on the UK Banking sector with warnings/expectations that improvements will not be seen until 2022.

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/two-uk-bank-shares-buy-right-now-ii514366?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NEW-DLY-ENGAGE-afternoon_round_up_02122020%20(1)&utm_content=newsletter&spMailingID=11346564&spUserID=MzU1MTA2OTEwNzY0S0&spJobID=1650237875&spReportId=MTY1MDIzNzg3NQS2

Among the analysts covering Barclays, there are currently:

4 Buy recommendations
9 Hold recommendations
0 Sell recommendations

https://www.stockopedia.com/articles/are-analysts-upbeat-on-the-outlook-for-barclays-154489/

Barclays shares target price upgraded from 135p to 165p....

https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/deutsche-ups-targets-for-barclays-and-other-uk-banks--7733827.html

A somewhat negative view on Barclays, as well as the Banking sector in general, suggesting that investors should approach with caution as 2021 indicates that future headwinds are anticipated.

Summary: Barclays shares have rallied, which has?generated some buzz. However, experts remain cautious and can’t seem to find a reason to break their bearish forecasts.

https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/barclays-shares-rally-following-covid-vaccine-news-201202

A 2 minute read with not a particularly strong conclusion. On a positive, there were some related interesting points which haven’t been shared in any volume on other sites... so perhaps a little bit of value added?

https://www.investingcube.com/barclays-share-price-is-up-4-today-is-it-still-a-strong-buy/

...with the predictable 1st December positive move upwards allied to the Dow Jones Futures looking at a 1% gain at opening, hopefully a £1.40+ finish should be seen today.

Fingers crossed that a Euro Trade Deal of any variety gets announced by Friday and with a fair wind and some luck we may even finish the week at £1.50+.

Here’s hoping....

All IMHO please MYOC and GLA

Foxbat107, you said:

“Why are people sat watching this share price by the minute. It’s a recovery share, and whilst it was excited by the vaccine it won’t fly up because you want it to.
The dividend, if it comes next year, will be your reward. Otherwise you are watching paint dry now.”

Good Morning Foxbat107,

What you have to remember is that other investors may have a different strategy to what I suggest is your slightly longer term hold play? Ever heard of Swing Investing? Or Day Trading? Please Google them with pleasure. To simply assume that everyone on this board is holding for a slightly longer term, perhaps because you are, I would suggest is somewhat a tad naive?

I have a couple of “lumps” held in Barclays at the moment with both lumps having a simple but different strategy i.e. one lump is a medium to longer term hold and the other lump being potentially being sold at any stage prior to 18th December.

So Yes... watching the share price by the day (rather than minute) is important to me. As for watching paint dry, I would suggest that daily movements of this stock circa 5% up and/or down is more like throwing a tin of paint against a wall rather than watching it dry, so don’t agree with your analogy here.

I’m not sure what your value of stock you hold in this company is, but regardless, I stress “I come in peace” and value all contributors. Good luck with your investment and please continue to share your views.

All IMHO please MYOC and GLA.