RE: MM for the Newbies.3 Sep 2020 14:24
PART 2
The tough part for retail traders becomes knowing when there’s market manipulation and when markets are behaving rationally in accordance to the supply and demand. On October 2nd, I was in a short position for Beijing IQ. While money flow index and on balance volume were all dropping, prices were manipulated higher and higher forcing me to cover for a loss. After that trade, I have not made a single day trade despite $0 commissions across most major brokerage firms. Market manipulations will always be a guessing game. To mitigate market manipulation, it would be ideal to avoid day trading and trade only on longer time frames. Personally, I find 4 hour charts and daily charts to be much less manipulated.
Now that we know about market manipulation, let’s talk about the other aspects of the rigging. Because market makers can see your stop losses and limit prices, they know exactly where to move the market to “upset” and make money off of you. The well known “level 2 quotes” may contain fake bids. So what can you do as a retail trader? Retail traders can have mental stops without exposing your intentions. The downside to having mental stops is that using market orders often face challenges of slippage and routings via 3rd party liquidity centers (AKA Vulnerable to 3rd party high frequency trading). So forget it, either way you will get dinged.
Lastly, I want to talk about how “easy” it is to buy low and sell high. If you think you can time the market, you may get lucky but you will never be right all the time. Technical indicators can be useful in down trending and up trending markets, especially moving averages. However, indicators can be very lagging and inaccurate in times of consolidation. According to historical data, markets are 30% of the time trending upward or down and 70% of the time, they simply consolidate to form wedges, triangles, boxes, etc. When one discovers about the consolidation, it may very well be too late as market conditions are constantly changing. And did I mention, unpredictable? To top it off, a tweet could change the entire dynamics of the prices.
So…knowing what we know, the best way to hedge and consistently obtain a solid 10% return would just be buy and hold. If the markets go up 30% next year, hold it. It may very well go up 40%, or would it retrace down to 20% YTD ROI. If markets fall 20%, hold it as well because you never know when it could rebound. Not selling is somewhat equivalent to initiating a buy position. I can’t promise you to be rich but I know after 40 years, you should be pretty content. I was a day trader and soon I must say how foolishly wrong and uninformed I am. Our retail trader edge was never really there to begin with.