RE: CosToday 12:30
The quantification of the probability is just a mathematical exercise which may be influenced by whatever evidence the geologists have, but whatever the stated CoS is, that ultimately, in my view, becomes irrelevant because the goods are either there or they are not. I roll the dice wanting a six, as long as a six comes in do I care that my odds were 16.67% of doing that? For me, what the odds do influence is how much risk capital I put in so that if the dice comes up a five and not a six it is not the end of the world - Of course, being human I am expecting six 😉