Member Info for Montmuzard

The anniversary and a Thursday!

It could be as simple as what the Nomad said a few weeks ago: they're just waiting for the resource upgrade to JORC levels and then the conditions to move to a binding offer are met. Could be just days away.

PI's absolutely gifting stock to sticky institutional hands. When the worm turns, it'll turn into a rocket, and those on the sidelines will be locked out and sick as dogs as they watch their shares head off into the stratosphere without them.

Quite puzzled TBH by people talking about October and Christmas. The BOD already have a proposal that they're pursuing: it's in the bag right now, they're not waiting for the outcome of a bidding war. That has long since passed. The bidders have done their due diligence, the FSP is over. The winner has crossed the line. The only thing we are possibly waiting for, at this stage, is the conditions of the proposal to be met in order to turn it into a binding offer. What could they be? Maybe a resource upgrade, with a bit of JORC thrown in. Perhaps the completion of the Nyud licence transfer. Maybe even another one of the Rosgeo assets. But not much more than that. We're at the crossing i's and dotting t's stage. News could literally drop any day now. Anyone dipping out could get locked out.

“Members” deliberately implies insiders. People who are included. Who get to share in the club benefits. In direct contrast to those who will be locked outside forever when the big one drops.

This rise feels different to me. Maybe I'm just being hopeful, but it doesn't feel as fragile as the others: could we end well into the mid-20s today?

Regardless of sale news, wouldn't it be marvellous if they dropped a intra-day RNS today detailing a nice juicy resource upgrade, maybe a bit of JORC and the WK flanks? That would really get things moving and wet a few whistles before the AGM.

Few family LISA bonuses in today. Took another 6000 out the free float. Not much, but every little helps. Can’t believe the creek isn’t very dry down at these levels now.

I don't see how it could be any clearer to be honest. Anyone jumping ship at the moment - or who has jumped ship recently - is gonna be eaten by the sharks as we sail off to Treasure Island. You don't speculate about even bigger resources or hypothetical dividends unless you're pretty sure they're in-bound and have a well-developed plan for realising them. It's only a matter of time now...

Just ask yourself: who actually has 4.1m shares that they can offload in one go? Aside from those mentioned - most of whom can't actually sell because it would constitute insider trading - you're left with Blackrock and other institutions that can sell (and buy) off-exchange via dark pools. Now, what on earth would they have to gain by dumping four million shares onto the market? I know: a falling share price and panicking PIs offloading for them to scoop back up.

"Monty everyone said that about the egm that it was a ploy to show buyers they aren’t raising. But a few weeks later they raised money."

Who is everyone? I didn't assume that there would be no dilution. At the same time, I didn't necessarily anticipate that there definitely would be, but I was happy to believe that, if there was, it would be value-accretive. In due course, getting Nyud (and the other Rosgeos) up and running will unquestionably be worth the relatively small recent dilution. They only used part of the authority, too, so it's clear that they take shareholders seriously. There's no reason to believe they'll immediately issue 500m shares any time soon.

"Seem a very fair way of doing things to my way of thinking?"

Agree completely Ian. Best way to deliver value to those who want to get off the train and those who want to stay on it.

Even if they could take shares, it's hard to see why they would, and it would likely be counter-productive. For one thing, they would be diluting their existing holding. There would also be no benefit to the company in terms of generating income - the whole point of dilution - if they just grabbed them rather than selling them. It would also seriously annoy existing shareholders, potentially even leading to a big sell off. It would be pretty out of character given their behaviour up to now.

I remain convinced that the 500m is primarily a show of strength to demonstrate to suitors that they will never run out of cash. If there is to be one, any raise will take place after the special dividend is paid: this will allow the board to return as much of that as possible to existing shareholders (including themselves) in EUA 1.0, giving everyone the option of a lucrative exit. Then, at some point, they'll issue a few hundred million more shares to generate revenue for EUA 2.0 and the message will be that, if you want to retain the same share in the company going forward, you have to pony up some of your winnings. Perfect outcome really: everyone is entitled to get off the bus with a sizeable wedge, or, if they have the patience, stick a bit more in for the cycle to be repeated down the line.

Been in meetings all afternoon, and just had a look at the one-day chart on Google. Just look at it: brutal tree shake down to 18p at 2pm but, yeah, as the green coffins keep telling us, it's definitely not being manipulated!

Agreed. Sold out another position that I don't expect to go up as far as quickly. Took another 20,500 at 19.7p. Absolute gift-horse.

@Tigra: "Yes it's frustrating but this is a genuine FOMO share due to the assets in the ground."

Which is precisely why this board is infested with organised derampers in their green coffins spreading fear, and it's also why there will be some massive buys printed after hours tonight. If it weren't a massive opportunity, the IIs would have no interest in relieving PIs of their stock.

@Morningsun: Don't Let Wall St steal your gems: https://www.griproom.com/fun/why-your-stock-is-always-red

"So from there appointment In September to December they haven't paid a penny. Interesting makes me think they were doing nothing."

DLA will either be working on a 90-day invoice timeline as per the norm - in which case there would be no fees recorded in last year's accounts anyway - or they will have negotiated an all-in fee to be paid when the deal is done for a small premium. Given their immediate financing needs and cashflow will be a lot more diversified and resilient than EUA's, my guess is DLA won't actually be paid a penny until the end of the sale process. The fact that they are still here, and presumably doing all the legals on the enormous deal announced just yesterday should give everyone a warm fuzzy feeling. Unless you're one of the bedwetters whose warm feeling is all soggy instead of fuzzy. In which case, more fool you.

Yep, there are more coming. It wouldn't surprise me if the offer from the "credible party" was for MT, WK and one, two, three or four Rosgeo assets that are ready to roll. If all four, I think we're looking at way beyond two quid as a special dividend. Then EUA 2.0 fully proves up whichever of the four are not sold and the other five, while taking a long sabbatical to Volchetundra, and we repeat the cycle over the next few years. Hard to see how this doesn't return £3+ (and possibly much more) to shareholders by 2030.

@LargeGin - Agreed. The expectations of PIs about frequency of news is insane. Just think how long it takes your average layman to complete the most basic of DIY tasks! Then think how long it takes for a fairly small company that consists of a handful of executives to close a series of multi-billion dollar deals. During a pandemic. You only have to read the RNS's, which come with great regularity, to see the progress on the ground. What is taking shape in front of us is absolutely monstrous, and anyone selling out while the current shenanigans are going on will live to regret it IMO.

"Clearly there is no deal imminent..."

I respectfully disagree and won't be selling any chunks. They have an offer from a credible party which could pay a significant dividend. No company, especially one which has UBS and DLA Piper piling up costs, puts that in an RNS if the offer was not already very advanced. Could literally drop any day now. Might still take a few weeks, of course, but you'd need very big cojones in my view to think you can dip out and back in at will now.

“... potential retail of $ 250 Billion”

And that’s just at today’s prices. If you look at where PGMs are projected to be by the end of the decade and the numbers become absolutely terrifying. A trillion dollars in-ground potentially.