RE: Divi rns4 Aug 2021 11:27
Although we all know the fair value of the company is well beyond where we're at now, I can't help but think that part of what is baked into the share price for the time being - as stagnant as it has been since the highs - is simply expectations of the asset sale. Markets don't clear or find prices efficiently, they are extremely sticky and irrational.
So, if the divi is (for argument's sake) £1, my suspicion is that the market will price the shares at not that far beyond it (say, £1.10 or something like that). Yes, we all know it should be much more, and, maybe if the board release a lot of additional news regarding plans going forward, it might consolidate at £1.25 or £1.50 or whatever. But, in my view, the Aim market is notoriously short-termist and lots of people will cut and run immediately at, say, £1.10 or £1.15 assuming they'll be able to buy back in down the line.
I hope so, anyway: my personal strategy will be to weather any post-dividend collapse in the share price and use some of my dividend to increase my holding in EUA 2.0 much further. But my expectation is that, regardless of what we have going forward and how promising it is, it's going to take many months and a few years for it to be reflected in the post-dividend share price. The irony, of course, is that it will be institutions that hoover up the shares of those who do bail out, which begs the question of whether there will actually be many for sale once that happens in the mid-2020s.