Member Info for Montmuzard

Just ticked up onto the LSE leaderboard...

"I’ve learnt a lot from the mistakes I have made which won’t be made in future shares"

Don't mean to pry Sam, but didn't you buy back in here about six months ago saying you were holding strong until the end? Obviously none of my business, so feel free to tell me to do one, but, just out of interest, are you still holding those shares or is this a new buy-in? Good luck on this final leg anyway.

I think that's the second time you've told people here to "get a life" Toon. It was me last week. I'm green binning you.

"It is said that you should not get emotionally attached to any share but with eua I have. When this reaches a magnificent conclusion I will take a bit of a break from investing on aim".

@Twisted - Me too, up to a point. I'm taking 10-15% out to pay some replenish my dry reserves, pay some bills and treat the family, putting 20-25% back into other Aim shares I've "borrowed" from and to take a few positions in new targets, and the other 60-65% is going into funds to be forgotten about for the next 20 years.

If the buyer was buying in the market they would (a) possibly be in breach of NDAs; (b) definitely anger Eurasia to the point where they could end up sabotaging the deal; (c) have to issue a TR1 once they went over 3% which would send the share price ballistic and totally undermine the whole rationale of doing it. Plus, they wouldn’t be able to accumulate enough stock to make such an underhanded strategy worthwhile anyway.

I’ve banged on about this a few times: the buyer’s interest is not in getting the cheapest price. Money is cheap and the majors have lots of it, and need to get rid of it. What matters is winning the race and securing the assets. As long as the ratio between their future value and the price paid is acceptable, the purchaser will pay whatever it takes and a few hundred million here and there won’t make any difference to them.

That isn't PI money. Which is great news for PIs. Rums all round!

Why would you go long if you thought it was worthless? Makes no sense. None of these chumps actually have shorts open. Any open shorts are hedges by big investment houses which are offset by long positions. TMS and the rest are just on a continual mission to try to get nervous PIs to give up stock. And they’re failing. Spectacularly so now.

Who cares!!

Just to be clear: I haven’t encouraged anyone to do anything! I was actually responding to Skippy initially. My point was more that we all have our own risk tolerances and strategies, and these are contextual (how old you are, what you’re holding, what your short and long-term ambitions are).

I’m nowhere near all-in here myself but (a) I can totally understand why some would be (although I would be very wary about borrowing to do so obviously) and (b) my portfolio has become progressively overweight and I’m imagining/hoping/anticipating it will be massively so in the next few weeks. But I took a personal decision that the upside risk of life-changing amounts here (i.e. potentially shaving ten or more years off my working life down the line) far outweighed the downside risk of losing what I put in (i.e. adding a handful more years to my working life). Put differently: I can afford to lose £XK more than I can afford to miss out on £XXXK and I think EUA is worth that bet, because I have researched heavily and I trust that analysis, although others may disagree and that’s fine, they have their own strategies.

My point was not that anyone “should” or “shouldn’t” go all in: it’s not for anonymous posters on message boards to give others advice. It’s that context matters. Sometimes the general rule which applies 90% of the time is a poor guide to the other 10% of the time when conditions are different. EUA in that regard may be a “black swan” (or, rather, a platinum one).

After all, if we all listened to the financial media we’d all be holding 30 x safe dividend-paying stocks and watching our portfolios creep up by 6% a year, we wouldn’t be here.

I personally wouldn’t become so overweight on other stocks and, if this plays out how we hope, I won’t do: I’ll become one of those six percenters for a large part of my holding, which will be reinvested primarily in funds, as the context will have changed and my strategy will then be about protecting capital rather than growing it. But, that’s then, not now. IMO, DYOR!

Possibly. But, firstly, I would say that, over a long enough timeframe, keeping your money in a bank account paying 0.3% is a far greater risk than investing anywhere, especially here. Secondly, Dmitri Suschov is pretty much all in on EUA and I reckon he’s fairly content with that choice.

I didn’t recommend anyone do anything. I pointed out that I don’t fully subscribe to the boiler plate argument that investors should never go all in on a stock. It’s a perfectly justifiable strategy that mixes high risk and potentially high reward. All depends on context.

@Green - doesn't that just mean the cash part of your ISA account? My understanding is that, once it's in the ISA wrapper, it's in there. But could be worth sending them a quick message to make sure.

"All I can suggest is that regardless of how much research you have done and how confident you are you should never go ‘all in’ on an AIM stock or any other investment."

That depends on two things. (a) Risk appetite: For some people, making sure they profit fully from the upside carries more weight than insuring against the potential downside. They would rather take the risk of losing £X than potentially missing out on £XXX. (b) Perceived risk: When a company like EUA releases an RNS saying that they are "committed to execute on the strategy outlined in the May 12 RNS" it's fairly clear the outcome is weighted in favour of that upside. Therefore, by not over-committing to EUA right now (or de-risking at this stage) investors are arguably diluting their profits.

Sure, this approach isn't for everyone. But it's why those who are prepared to take the biggest risks get the biggest rewards (or, if they're stupid enough to take even bigger risks by shorting, they get jubbed big time). As GMF78 tweeted yesterday, anyone who ignored Motley F****'s advice three years ago and went all in on EUA would now be sitting on 5000% gains. In a few weeks' time, anyone still piling in now could well be sitting on 500%+ gains.

"but I assume that this dividend will be under the CGT allowance so he will not have to pay anything"

All depends what the dividend is: you never know, if Hoochy was right..............

My understanding is that Nyud and Moroshkoye come under the same licence so would be sold together anyway.

Richard Dugdale tweeted about this last week (fantastic research by the way):

https://twitter.com/RichardDugdale3/status/1433068388385964040?s=20

He reckons six licences under Nyud - albeit with some questions over Vuruchuayvench - and the remaining three (or four) are under Poaz. That would seem to make sense to me, and chimes with the RNSs regarding EUA's division of labour in terms of which are ready to go now and which will come down the track later.

@Peter - Depends on your broker. I'm with HL, for my sins. Go to account management > withdrawals, income and loyalty bonus. You have three options under income instructions:

Held on account: we shall transfer your income to your capital account where it will be available to invest when you choose.

Automatically re-invested: we will reinvest any income automatically for you when it reaches £10 (or your chosen minimum) per holding.

Paid out: your income will be paid to your Nominated Bank Account.

Yep, at most we’re selling MT+flanks and the deposits held in the Nyud licence. Maybe WK, maybe not. That still leaves the rest of the Rosgeo JV: Poaz etc. So, all being well, income from WK and whatever the board holds back from this sale finances a rinse and repeat down the line.

I’m fortunate that my holding is all salted away in my ISA, which is set to “hold on account” in the event of the dividend payment. It would be chaos if a massive dividend was either paid straight out in cash or automatically reinvested into millions of post-dividend EUA shares!

The board aren’t stupid: my sense is that there will hopefully be a period of time (a week?) between the release of the circular and the ex-divi date to allow people facing sizeable dividend tax bills to sell out. I would have thought UBS would do this instinctively, as there will be plenty of city firms happy to buy millions of shares with guaranteed dividends at, say, 98% of their guaranteed future value. But, of course, I could be totally wrong.

Straight in the green bin you goon.

My portfolio is up £80K this week. Back near the highs. Thanks for all your "help" with trying to save us from making big mistakes Montyboz and the Green Coffins, but all you did with your deramping is allow me to buy down at 15p, making the reversal north even spicier. Rums all round!