Member Info for Montmuzard

Good lord.

I'm still trying to work out what matrices she analyses after changing her username, as I've never seen much data posted on the Twitters or anywhere else. Unlike, say, the Telegram group, which she seems to think is a scam, yet is full of detailed research and analysis.

Still here too. Not much to say when things are so quiet. But feel reasonably confident that (a) any material change would have had to be RNS'd, so it's business-as-usual, and (b) the silence is deafening because the pieces are being moved behind the scenes into their final positions.

Why wouldn't they be honourable? It's likely (in my view, although I'm sure others would disagree) that there will be some kind of discount applied on whatever the sale price ultimately would have been a few months ago due to the new reality. So, NN, or whoever, will be getting EUA's assets at an extremely good price. Personally, I always expected something like £1.20 for MT+flanks up to about £2.00 for a full company sale. I'd be very happy now with 80p for the former and £1.20 for the latter. Or something in that ballpark.

Either way, it's hard to see why NN (or whoever) would risk jeopardising what is presumably already a very carefully laid-out and well-structured transaction for the sake of, what, a few hundred million dollars? It's a drop in the ocean when they have cash burning a hole in their pockets, and the only thing that matters to them is securing the assets and ensuring the ratio between cash outlay now and future income is acceptable (and it's surely beyond acceptable at a sale price between $2bn and $5bn, or whatever, or whatever, on assets with a future value of $200bn or more, and possibly lots more).

The same is true of the Russian state (and especially those elements within the state that prize national development over belligerent wars of aggression that have self-evidently detracted from 30 years of relative progress). The last thing they, or their firms, need, is endless court cases in western capitals for expropriation of assets and so on. They want to appear open for business so that, when the heat does subside and sanctions gradually start to be removed, there aren't endless impediments to welcoming junior explorers back in (even if they'll be working in a fairly straightened context for some time). If you don't have juniors exploring, you don't have a pipeline of assets, which is effectively economic suicide for an extractives-dependent economy (especially one operating in a long global bull market).

"Hence those expecting a pause before EUA sells aren't on the same page ... EUA will select a buyer at best possible terms that also ensure shareholders get the proceeds ... Moscow is also supporting orderly and respectful exits".

Agreed. If (a) Russian firms are likely to be restricted from overseas listings, and (b) western firms are going to struggle to operate within Russia, while (c) metals prices explode, it stands to reason that a British firm that has spent many years proving up metals and which has long been in the protracted process of selling its Russian subsidiaries to (we might presume) Russian buyers, is only doing one thing right now: moving heaven and earth to execute on that process as quickly and profitably as possible to ensure an orderly and respectful exit.

"Given this was NT to buy £5k at 9.50p"

Agreed. I've been trading a small part of my holding the past few weeks to give myself a bit of extra cash as the SP has been, broadly speaking, fairly predictable, cycling up and down between 11p and 9p. However, the past few days it has become much more difficult: the movements have been very small, occasionally the real spreads have been massive, it has regularly gone NT to buy (especially this morning), and we've really been held quite steady for some time now. Is someone accumulating down here? Either way, I've stopped recycling my chunk for now and am anticipating a big tick up in short order if the well is indeed dry at these levels.

MMs fishing for shares. The real spread today is wide: should bounce before long.

Nobody is saying a deal has been pulled. I’m suggesting that the strategy might have changed: given they’ve never specified exactly what the strategy is, and, moreover, the fact they’ve implied multiple offers on the table, it could well be the case that they wouldn’t need to clarify any shift (i.e. from asset sales to full company sale) until the exact moment when they execute on it.

I’ve wondered something similar: could it actually be that, with the current situation, the strategy has changed, and instead of a series or separate asset sales, they’ve decided to take a relative hit on a full company sale? It would certainly offer an additional explanation for the radio silence beyond the need to lie low during the war. I’m sure there’s a sweet spot to be negotiated with NN or whoever which means they get additional value in return for fronting up more cash now. I know I’d be happy at seeing some reduction in hypothetical long-term gains for a risk-free lump now.

"But their non actions and silence is saying otherwise".

Their silence, by definition, is saying business as usual as outlined in recent RNS's. Any material changes would have been announced at the behest of the NOMAD. I'd be far more worried if, at a time like this, they were making immaterial announcements in a desperate attempt to keep the share price up. What matters is the fundamentals, and the fundamentals haven't changed. Incidentally, I take it as good news that we seem to have a lot of green coffins re-emerging at the moment on here: it suggests good news might be close.

"Hargreaves L`down own 22.6% of the shares in EUA"

That's the nominee account: HL don't own them, private investors (i.e. us) holding them in HL accounts do!

The fact that there is silence tells you everything: business as usual. If there were any material change, it would have had to be RNS’d. Ergo, deals are still in the table, UBS and DLA are still sitting there. And the metals are going nowhere.

At the same time, it’s obvious why the board are keeping their heads down: the last thing they need is media coverage in the UK press for completing a multi-billion deal on Russian assets with champagne corks popping.

I’m quite content with hatches battened down presently, and I say that having seen the value of my portfolio drop over £150K. As soon as a ceasefire looks close, you can bet the share price will react and news flow will begin and move forward rapidly.

I don’t think it’s far away either: this war is now a stalemate and everyone, including Putin who must be fearing for his safety, will be looking for a way out.

If you’re gonna do a small dilution, this is the way to do it: value accretion all the way.

Why are Align disposing of shares if they think it's going to 20p?

DLA's statement says they won't act *for* Russian state entities. In our case, they aren't: they're acting for a British company disposing of assets in Russia.

It's *listed in Britain*, is soon to be dual listed in Russia, many of the directors and key figures are Russian, and the sale of assets will bring massive amounts of investment into Russia, speeding up production of metals worth tens of billions. Hard to see why Putin would suddenly stop licence transfers: quite apart from the fact that there are complex procedures that have to be adhered to in order to issue/receive licences, it would eviscerate investment in junior mining exploration in the country overnight and lead to protracted legal wrangling. Moreover, just because Britain has availed itself of the legal right to impose sanctions, it's unlikely these will be sweeping. They will be narrow, targeted, and performative. The Kremlin will already have done the cost-benefit analysis of their likely shape.

It’s a sign: the fact the SP is holding strong around 22.2p means that the dividend will be £2.22 :-)

@Gaza - Fundsmith for me. The fee is a punchy 1% but annualised growth of 17% a year is not to be sniffed at. Once the EUA endgame is played out, I intend to rebalance my portfolio so that 75% is in funds, and a large chunk of that will go into Fundsmith. The other one I'm looking at is Blue Whale. It's younger, but performance even better than Fundsmith past couple of years. Both have obviously had a tough start to 2022 though.

:-)

Omicron isn’t “just a bad cold”. It’s more dangerous (and far more transmissible) than Delta. But most people who seem to be infected with Omicron appear to have milder symptoms *because of* the high levels of vaccinations, especially boosters.