Member Info for Montmuzard

Hi Pete, so sorry to hear about your brother in law. He was lucky to have you looking after him these last few days and weeks, that’s clear. Condolences.

How could retaliatory sanctions wipe us out? Our subsidiaries are all Russian. Why would the Russian government choose to expropriate Russian companies, particularly those that are (a) operating in a sector which has not been subject to western sanctions, (b) in the process of divesting to Russian/BRICS miners, and (c) at the end of 25 years of exploration activity coming to fruition? The very last thing Russia would do, in my view, is undermine junior explorers: they would completely destroy the pipeline of future extraction on which their economy depends.

Looks to me like we've just bounced off 7.25p and are now ticking back up. Prediction: we'll end somewhere around 8p today, finishing pretty much where we began. The only difference being the unfortunates relieved of their shares at the low. Rinse and repeat until news.

I think some of them are in the process of quietly buying back as we speak. But many of them are to hedge against longs. So, for example, BlackRock have XXXmillion long, and place a short of Xmillion: if the long fails, they clean up on the short, but if they win long - which they presumably expect to do - then even paying out a few tens of millions to cover it doesn't matter, especially since they'll be churning as we go and taking trading profits along the way.

"Is a shame about the lack of info of late... but... I wonder is there a reason to this too"

An obvious explanation is that work has been going on relentlessly behind the scenes so that they can execute as soon as there is a change in the political weather, or in the run-up to the AGM, whichever comes first. That would make sense to me, and it will allow Dmitri to destroy some shorts into the bargain. If they drop the big one and present everything as a done deal and fait accompli - particularly given that DLA will have been earning their money structuring the deal(s) around the sanctions, and UBS will have been earning theirs in balancing off the positions of buyers with public authorities - then it's hard to see what the barriers to it occurring will be.

The Russians are on record as saying that they won't stand in the way of orderly and respectful exits - particularly given that our sales will be from our Russian subs to either Russian or BRICS buyers - and the UK government is not going to stop a British firm divesting itself of Russian assets.

It doesn't matter that it's two months old. By definition, it's current information, because it hasn't been superseded by a new RNS. If there were material changes, it would have. The silence should be giving people comfort: companies in trouble release meaningless news release after meaningless news release in a desperate attempt to keep shareholders interested.

Our BOD don't care about doing that because their ability to execute is unchanged. So they quite rightly couldn't care less if bedwetting PIs don't understand what the RNS trail means and are choosing to jump overboard: they're holding hundreds of millions of shares themselves, and they know the day-to-day share price doesn't matter because, when they execute, the liquidity event will see them realise true value.

Sentiment is a funny thing. You're only "slaughtered" if you sell. If you don't sell, it's just a temporary paper loss that can quickly turn around. As anyone stupid enough to be selling at 7.5p is soon going to discover.

Volume today is barely 8m. Around 0.2% of the firm's share capital traded. Buys (5m) outweighing sells (3m) by almost 2 to 1. And yet the SP drops by 10%? This is a tree shake, nothing more, nothing less. Most stock resolutely in sticky hands and when we bounce, we'll bounce hard.

Last time we were down in the 7s we bounced pretty hard up towards 13p. Before long, the MMs are going to have to spike, because it's the only way they'll get any stock.

No news is good news, by definition. Firms like DLA Piper don't stake their reputation on protecting clients with skeletons they want to hide in cupboards. The NOMAD would have forced disclosure of any material change.

In terms of cash, they had $30m not so long ago, which now seems like an extremely fortuitous (and well-conceived) decision to take last year in terms of the small dilution they did at 26p.

I'm surprised we're down this low. But then there's hardly any volume. Can't help but think this is a nasty shake designed to test the patience of those holding strong and free up some cheap shares to allow shorts to start closing. Indeed, that might explain the influx of doubting Thomases on here the past few days.

It's obvious the high-point of the war is coming to an end, we're entering a new normal, Putin might even be deposed, and many in Russia will be keen to get the economy going again. It's not long until EUA execute IMO.

Although speculation from various sources now that we might be shifting towards everything being dropped on the market in one go, and this could emerge at any point. That's my expectation too. This long, deafening, silence, suggests to me that all the ducks are lined up and we're just waiting for them to pull the trigger on everything now.

On the divi, why would they bother? Even at £15m, it would only boost the SP by half a penny (and it might not, as the market might take it as a sign of weakness, because the market is expecting a liquidity event) and it would potentially be a distraction from the much bigger job of delivering that liquidity event that takes up time and resources.

Can't see 'em doing that. Just for a 1p dividend they'd need to find £30m. I'd rather they keep that money in the EUA coffers to keep the galleon safe from hungry predators while it navigates choppy seas.

I'd be very nervous if I weren't holding right now. We know that Rosgeo no longer holds the Nyud licence, which means it's either in limbo or has arrived somewhere else. But we know EUA paid for the licence many months ago. So there's only one place it can really be (or be going, very soon). Once they drop that news formally, all hell is gonna break loose.

Very strong start. Reversal underway.

Here comes that nasty reversal I mentioned earlier today. Don’t get caught on the wrong side of it. If you’re left onshore while the galleon sails off into the sunset you’ve only got yourself to blame…

"Even an RNS of "we are hard at work and will keep the market updated as and when new developments occur" is enough."

But that's literally what the last two RNS's said, so why does it need to be said again? The fact that no new news has been provided to the market implies, by definition, that it's business as usual.

"I am starting to think that the BOD needs to bring us some bad news and they are hoping to give us 'some' good news at the same time to avoid an even lower SP"

What evidence are you basing that on?

I see the troglodytes are out in force on here and the Twitters spread their FUD: fear, uncertainty, doubt. Funny how they weren't here a couple of weeks ago when the SP was bouncing back up to the 11s and they won't be again next time it takes off. Personally, I find the (apparent) lack of updates from the board reassuring: it means they're getting on with the job. Anyone listening to the Fudders and selling out down here is going to caught on the wrong side of a nasty reversal IMO.

Did a test quote for 100k this morning and they were offering 8.8p on the bell. Immediately timed out and went NT to sell for ages. I think the MM fishing trips are bringing up increasingly meagre catches for them.

Good lord.