Member Info for Montmuzard

Lots of chunky trades going through. Must be MMs trying to clear the stock backlog from last week. But someone is on the end of those quarter and half-million buys. What do they know now that they didn't last week and the week before?

Well, the AGM is to review the 2021 annual report, so in a sense we should be anticipating the whole focus being on what happened last year. However, the very fact that they have left it until the last minute makes me wonder whether actually we're going to get a juicy nugget of some kind. If it was just to be a bland RNS with a dated report, then arguably they would have done it already...

Evidently a lot of the increased shorts opened over the past few weeks around 8p or so were betting on there being a glut of stock at the end of today and that is precisely what has happened, allowing them to close out in the auction. Seems a crazily high risk to take for a 15% gain and potentially jubbering losses IMO, but there you go. I reckon it helps to explain the influx of drongos we've seen on this board and Twitter the past few weeks as well, who have all suddenly gone quiet. Surely the only way is up now, aided by the cranking up of newsflow from the company.

"so no one is concerned about these large trades after hours?"

No, it's the mid-cap indices unwinding and shorts closing on the other side.

I remember when we were going into the MSCI mid-cap there were huge buy orders on the other side at the end of the day that never got executed: 50p and beyond.

"What’s with 35m at 6p?"

Probably Blackrock mid-cap selling it to Blackrock's shorting arm to close out!

Could be both: rebalancing mixed with shorts closing mixed with pre-bank holiday FOMO.

Looks like we’ve just ticked up properly to 9.25p. This could be where the shorters really start to take fright… could be a very fruity final couple of hours today.

Did I just fleetingly see 9.5p.....?

The green coffins and FUD-spreaders are conspicuous by their absence today, aren't they?

Yes, if I was at the vinegar strokes of a massive and hugely complex multi-billion M&A deal with multiple international buyers of subsidiaries in a country at war and subject to sanctions all under NDAs, I would be busting a gut to do as many public interviews as possible. Can't think what their excuse for not doing them is.

Seems to be some big sells going through too, but price holding quite stable. I wonder if it's as simple as the MSCI index unwinding, transferring those shares to the small cap indices and some shorters using the liquidity to close off.

Feels a long time since we used that word, but looks like a 3m buy has just gone through at 8.9475 unless it's a loch ness monster

"It’s black or red-nobody really knows"

No it isn't. Black or red is a 50/50 gamble. If you've done your research and have an appropriate sense of risk, then there's no way whatsoever that EUA can be weighted as likely to fail as it is to succeed. Yes, the share price is down from the highs, but only because of uncertainty induced by the war (which the board have reiterated does not affect their plans).

In my view, the chances of it all going to pot are less than 5%. Literally the only bad thing that could happen is expropriation, which is unlikely for all the reasons discussed here previously (Russian investors don’t want it; it runs counter to the state’s interests; Eurasia has built strong links to the very highest reaches of Russian government; it would destroy junior exploration in the country, with massive knock-on effects for decades).

Even if there is to be no sale (I fail to see why any serious firm or consortium would spend millions and two years doing due diligence if they weren’t serious about buying) we’ll simply activate Sinosteel and move to production ourselves. We’re not that far away from being able to do this anyway, which should concentrate the minds of buyers. Plus, EUA is a massively bigger and more advanced company than it was even a year ago.

So, with all of that in mind, I consider that we have a 95% chance of success (whatever the current share price disconnect). If so, then the roulette wheel has 19 blacks for every red.

"Its a standard resolution to have the ability to raise additional funds. Do not read into it any further"

I'll read whatever I like into it, thanks very much. I know it's a standard resolution: my point was that, without more concrete news, some investors might well not be in favour of it. Moreover, were it not to appear as a resolution, that would actually tell us rather a lot in my view.

"Resolutions to vote on Dshox..."

I think a big clue in terms of what's going on will be what they do in terms of the right to raise funds. Without more concrete news, I can't see investors being prepared to vote in favour of hypothetical future dilution, especially at these prices. Equally, they might not even ask for the ability to dilute, because they might not need it, which would be a pretty strong indicator of what's incoming....

A lot of these big sells are probably from the MSCI index unwinding.

This might be a stupid question, but how passive are the MCSI and other funds? I know they have fairly simple criteria regarding when to buy and sell, so it's effectively automatic. But, equally, does it necessarily follow that sells have to go to the open market? Is there anything stopping Morgan Stanley simply transferring millions via an off-book trade at the prevailing price into one of their actively managed funds? If not, this could explain the stable SP and the lack of action for the locked-in shorters.

Me too. I think they'll either do it straight before bank holiday if there's big news accompanying the AGM. Or they'll do it straight after if we're just getting a bog standard AGM notification. Either way, it's all gravy.

Much nicer vibes on here this morning. Two more headbangers for the green bin too. It's getting hot in there.