Member Info for Montmuzard

Me too, ideally around 4p or 5p in the immediate future. So if people just held onto their shares and stopped selling them, that would be really helpful. Cheers.

There's life in this old dog yet ... nice bit of a blue and hopefully a steady rise in advance of next week.

“…this is a dispute between two shareholders”

One of whom is effectively the Russian state. So while the company are surely right in the abstract - they are neutral on the outcome and it doesn’t affect the sale in principle - you can bet that the buyer’s due diligence team want it resolved before their offer materialises and the company would quite like the share certificates in the hands of the state to smooth any transaction rather than Queeld/Mispare about whom they’ve evidently had misgivings for a very long time.

“I don't at all believe that the assets are worth less than they were before the war”

Nobody is saying they’re worth less. But exiting Russia is far more difficult now than it was pre-war and the assets for sale no longer include the Rosgeo JV ones to which a lot of that value was attributed.

There’s an evident reasonable worst-case scenario of the board having to pay the full 50% haircut and the 15% voluntary contribution to the state budget. This is an established fact. I’m hopeful that a buyer will pay something for the Nyud entitlement and the state will not impose the full 50% haircut. But ramping away that the company won’t accept anything less than £1 is plainly now falsified by the evidence in front of our eyes.

And yet just ten days ago you were describing the company as "a dead duck" and Artem as a "charlatan". What has happened to change your opinion so dramatically, as you now seem to be ramping the hind legs off of it?

The assets are worth a fortune, evidently. Anyone who has done a modicum of research knows that. But they are also based in Russia and the board have only limited control over the price that they can extract for them in the current context. They hold some cards, but not all of them.

For me, it's minimum 17p, maximum 56p, anticipating/hoping for something between 27p and 38p special dividend paid after all deductions. Obviously it could have been higher with no war and serious progress on Rosgeo JV.

The wide range obviously reflects unknown extent of DFS upgrade, nature of bidding war, size of both independent valuation and offer, value attributed to Nyud/Trav, degree of haircut applied by Russian state, amount retained for EUA2, level of fees/taxes applied to transaction (plus currency fluctuations).

Amazing the numbers of traders on this board now who have never commented once on the company while the rest of us have been here the past four or five years suddenly dispensing their wisdom on when to enter and exit for a few hundred quid. That really isn't the game here.

4p about to go, surely. Gonna be real fireworks last hour or so here now.

Mine varies across accounts - 6p in some, 2p in others - but I've never once doubted this company and have managed to hoard almost 1.5m shares since the fall from the great heights a couple of years ago by continuing to accumulate, bringing those averages down in the process. Don't intend to sell a single one until the fat lady sings.

Despite all the naysayers of the past couple of years, Eurasia is a great example of why any investor should do their research properly, have confidence in it, keep accumulating when others are fearful and rainbow chasing, wait patiently, and hold.

Rums all round!

"The ownership of the share certificates has no impact of the completion of any sale"

Perhaps legally, but it's quite plausible that the buyer's due diligence team have said they won't complete until the issue is resolved, or, indeed, the Russian state has said they won't allow the transaction to proceed until this is the case.

The train is now clearly leaving the station, with people scrabbling to get on board before the seats are all full.

Someone definitely knows something: I don't think they know necessarily what the deal is or when it will drop, but I think they do know that the conditions for that to happen are close to being met, whether it's the final resolution of the Queeld case or whatever.

Nice to see the SP holding up well: back up to 2p again. These drops at the start of the day don't seem to be flushing out many sellers. Rums all round.

@Jarv - Agreed, if there isn't clear sale movement once the Queeld case is resolved, I don't see how the company can continue to avoid restarting development. Even 15p or so with full haircuts and contributions (plus costs, taxes, some retention for EUA2) requires an initial independent valuation of around $2bn and a transaction of around $1bn. Not small money by any means, which is why I'm now fairly sceptical of the bigger numbers being chucked around.

This is a fun debate, and don't get me wrong, I'll take any of the big numbers. I've almost trebled my holding from the hundreds of thousands to pushing two million over the past year.

@Makeabundle - I agree, I think and hope the Russians will keep smiling on Eurasia, particularly if the state takes over the Queeld shareholding next week. As I say, I've long suspected this is Artem's main job, greasing the right wheels. But you have to plan for worst-case as well as best-case.

@Dattabase1 - Those reserves and resources figures include all the Rosgeo assets. The only one of those you can attribute any value to now is Nyud, and it's questionable how much value given that it is just an entitlement to a brownfield deposit rather than a project in development (and Poaz accounted for a huge chunk). So personally I would err on the side of caution here.

On the question of haircuts, my understanding is that, yes, each case is taken on its merits, but 50% is the norm, not the exception. So the starting point is that there will be a full haircut - and the committee has the independence to reject any deals that do not include it - so the exceptional case that there shouldn't be a haircut has to be made to bring it down. You don't start at zero and build up towards 50%. This briefing by Linklaters a few months ago makes it all clear and the contribution is definitely now 15%: https://www.linklaters.com/en/insights/blogs/foreigninvestmentlinks/2023/october/leaving-russia-the-snowballing-price-of-exits

@Jarv - Agreed, which is why the mothballing of development in recent months has been so frustrating. The company should have activated Sinosteel and told any potential buyers to s*** or get off the pot and come back later when the price has trebled.

Agree with all of Mac's points, obviously - the last non-consolidated palladium play certainly gives the company a strong hand and I'm sure has driven some kind of bidding war - but equally you have to balance that against the fact that some buyers can't go near Russia now, the state committee works on valuations rather than offer size, and we have the looming threat of up to 50% haircut and 15% to state coffers.

So, I can see how, with a strong DFS upgrade, we potentially get to a $4bn valuation, and how that might translate into a base case 20p dividend with full haircuts applied. I can also see how you can manipulate the numbers in terms of valuation and haircuts to get to 30p or so (which would be a fantastic outcome from here) and maybe even 50p if Artem really does have the ears of the right people.

But I just don't see how you get anywhere near £1 now. That either implies a valuation of around $5bn and no haircuts (after costs, taxes and EUA2 retention: surely the miracle outcome) or as much as $9-10bn or so with full haircuts. Or, of course, something inbetween. Fantasy land in my view.

Oh, and SpikeyJ has obviously gone in the green bin. What a muppet.

I would love that, but I just don't see it now unfortunately. As CS said last year at the AGM, the war effectively stopped value accretion (meaning development of Nyud, Poaz etc. which accounted for a lot of any potential additional uplift in value). So, while the resource upgrade in the DFS and the Trav licence will offset this to some degree, I don't see how, even in an ideal world, that gets us up towards £3bn ($4bn) *after* costs/taxes, and even less so in such an unstable environment where, until we know otherwise, we're looking at haircuts too.

FWIW my sense is that Eurasia might get away with a less than 50% haircut (my gut feeling is that this is why Artem is on board) but I'm still steeling myself for a bare minimum 15p-20p and anything above that is now a bonus. But, if the Russians smile on us, I could see us getting 35p-55p absolute max, but can't help but think the top end there is at best a tiny chance now. Very happy to be proven wrong though.

The one positive that I keep thinking of is that the state committee bases everything on independent valuations. So, given that the NKT open pit alone has an NPV of $1.7bn, perhaps it's possible to get to a very high initial valuation of $3-4bn or more that is then chipped away at by currency exchange, costs, taxes, and haircuts. But even with such a high valuation, a full haircut would still leave something like a 30p dividend with some held back for EUA2. Of course, a lower haircut would mean there is some considerable upside potential there, but I still struggle to see anything close to £1 now personally.

I'll take a day of consolidation around 2p given the excitement of yesterday and the drop this morning. A nice base for the next leg IMO.

How would you know, USER84, given you've only been a member for one month? Or is that you have many monikers? Straight in the green bin.