Member Info for Mirasol

" HUR are still just a ceasefire or ESP failure away from losing a huge amount of its price overnight."

A ceasefire will lower the POO a bit and that will affect the stock price - an ESP failure would NOT be good news - cut in income, cost of works. delay etc etc

The BoD need to get another asset ASAP TBH - preferably something long term with immediate income - just in case

I've dabbled in oil stocks for a long time - and read the various bits and pieces

every so often someone gives a clear explanation of what is going on - and Google helps!!

"How is it new - when people can work it out on the back of a fag packet?"

Using the published numbers you can use the fag packet - read the CPR - they normally take at least 3 months and cost £ 160- £100k to produce. You need access to software that costs ERCE about £1 million a year - its not EXCEL - and a herd of people with 10-40 years experience who aren't on minimum wage either

"oil prices 30% lower than today"

CPR's always use a lower forward curve - not clear here if this is ERCE's, HUR's or someone elses or a mixture of all 3

Standard industry practise

OK Reservoir engineering 1.01

Before they start production they build a computer reservoir model which allows them to forecast the production levels, pressures, water cut etc through time. This is based on the drilling results to date, similar fields elsewhere and a lot of experience.

As production goes continues you compare the actual to the predicted - if they differ (which they almost always do) you tweak the model to fit the actual data - this is called history matching. You use this new model to do a new forward forecast. In this case after a few years the production is better than forecast for various reasons this means they can increase the amount of oil they think they will get out - this increases the reserves.

The increased oil price also helps as this pushes back the time when the field is uneconomic to run - this also adds to the reserves (which is the amount you get out )

"I assume this is not a new assessment of reserves so cannot actually tell us anymore than before? "

That is exactly what it is - a new update based on better than expected reservoir performance and higher oil prices.

"they have now started consulting on decommissioning plans"

Nothing odd, conspiratorial or mysterious about this. They need up to date estimates from the contractors so they can more accurately make the correct provision for abandonment in the books and in the finance plans. Now the CPR has "officially" added 2-4 years to the field life their old numbers will be wrong - it's sometimes done yearly on other fields

I do not wish to be unkind but honestly - if you don't understand about "reserves" and the process by which they are determined you really are likely to finish up in deep, deep water. Try doing some background reading using Google at the very minimum for heavens sake.

"I honestly hold over £200k worth of shares & SB Positions"

Not a single person on here believes you Falky - you were riding off into the sunset only a few weeks ago

Quick read of the CPR is quite encouraging - 2P reserves gives at least another 2 years production (subject to no mechanical issues or sudden water breakthrough)

"Tbh, I don't understand the implications of the cpr. "

Can I suggest you stop investing in oil & gas stocks and invest in something you DO understand

baits Posts: 8,264 Price: 0.80 No Opinion 29/03/21
RE: Funding update RNSToday 00:18
Anybody ****ging off a share are one of four things.They want it lower to buy in.They are a tree huggers.They have no friends never will have and just like stirring it up.They lost a lot of money on Angus like Alan2017 who I might add praised this share to high heaven when Brockham was being drilled.Here is a snippet from the 10th of May he posted.
I wanted to wait until the water zone was isolated....but I will now repost a post from many moons ago.
Personally I have used the rate of 1,000bopd for expected flow rates during the commercial production test at Brockham. Set yourself a benchmark and then anything above it is a bonus. I've used 1,000bopd in reflection of what HH saw just from the Upper and Lower Kim layer tests in 2016.

"Give it up lady Just utterly pathetic even if you are on wages"

Not me hiding in the Philippines rather than paying their taxes here - allegedly

Told you Yanis - you're clearly now a green troll paid by Putin for suggesting things need to be watched

"Definitions of mirasol. annual sunflower grown for silage"

rampers never answer the facts - they just resort to abuse immediately

"Just reviewing that 10th March RNS"

A lot of people got badly burnt by believing the RNS's on Brockham - all very positive until the week before they were supposed to start ...............

well of course they could believe you and lose over half their money.............

"Insidious Posts: 2,874 Price: 0.2175 Strong Buy -10.31%Today 15:57 28/04/21
Resting nice on suppprt, wait for the bounce...

Thinking of which where IS our balladeer, World class oil expert and world traveller this morning................

Possibly talking to Ruby??

"And.......? Does it just make you feel better posting about it?"

ye s- because it shows the level of totally lunatic and frankly untruthful ramping here that is designed to entice people to invest in a highly risky small oiler

"Shell offer? Didn’t you hear the latest? BP, Esso, ExxonMobil and Petrofina are putting in competing offers … BOOM"

Yanis - they'll label you as Greta Thunderbox if you keep posting like that

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