Member Info for Mikey279

just readjusted my PF its all cash and NCYT now, no balls to leave it anywhere else

tempted to catch this, but impossible to call bottom

For those doubting the sales figures of 'only' 900k last month and now an additional 1.4m this month, have a look at the detail

Production capacity increased by a factor of 10 to 2m, which means they only had capacity to produce 200k kits - circa to the amount of sales.... the demand wasn't the issue, it was the supply

And if you're concerned about sales being met - You don't make outsourcing agreements for up to 2m per month WITH OPTION TO INCREASE, if you don't genuinely believe the demand is there

Patience

Highly conservative scenario:

20m tests per year = £100m sales, 50% GPM, £50m x P/E of around 10 = £500m mcap

Upper target (assuming they ramp up production capacity, which I expect)
30m tests = £150m sales 50% GPM, £75m profit x P/E of 10 = £750m mcap

Bare in mind GPM is likely to be closer to 60% and P/E's are typically 15-20+ for pharma's

Note: excludes other aspects of business which will benefit from the exposure, and various FDA approvals/NHS orders etc which will undoubtedly magnify sales significantly

patience folks... we finally have news justify potential, it'll come

Also mentioned the other day I didn’t think they had enough capacity to produce organically and wanted an outsourcing agreement.... increase by a factor of 10

So they only had enough capacity to produce 200k tests !! No wonder why sales were lower than expected.... all good now though 2m per month

Called £5-£10 over a month ago.... who’s doubting now ?

Ah of course you get the twitter idiots saying 2.3m sales vs mcap conveniently missing out the stock of 3.5m tests and 2m + per MONTH production capacity (with possible expansion) through outsourcing

Oh and the NHS, timely with the budget announcement and a small matter of 50+ countries

With multiple FDA announcements due

****ing hell

Highly conservative btw and ignores other aspects of business.... and that’s without nhs and fda etc

It’s another stonker

As for the maths... 2m per month = £10m at £5 per test, say 50% profit so £5m over next 6 months? + p/e of 15-20....... boom

Quick read, brilliant RNS - outsourced production was exactly what I was looking for- now why would you have capacity to produce 2m tests per month (with possibility to expand) if you don’t think it’ll sell

The French laboratory bioMérieux will make available to health authorities screening tests for the coronavirus, which were clinically validated a few days ago. It will allow people fearing to have contracted the disease to quickly establish a diagnosis. "Faced with the urgency of the Covid-19 epidemic, bioMérieux is committed to offering a complete diagnostic solution that meets the highest performance and quality requirements," said the group's executive director. These new devices will be produced in Verniolle, in Ariège and will be available "end of March". Other devices of this type will also be marketed by Eurobio Scientific and Primerdesign.

Same reason why countries are in lockdown... if everyone gets it at once you can add on a 0 to the 2% death rate, confirmation of infectants is critical to containment and management of the spread of the virus

Deramp attempt but ends with 'I am invested'

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Can't see an immediate takeover, maybe in 12 months down the line, DD for such things take at least 6 months at speed

However do think there will be talks of JVA's/large licensing agreements as I personally don't believe we have capacity to meet worldwide demand through organic sales (for anything material anyway).

I'm hoping for some news on approvals and more contracts in the next RNS - should set the trajectory in the right direction

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Is it still a 20min if constipated though ?

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Just confirmed with a few doctor friends at NHS London hospitals, tests times for the viruses are still taking 48 hours..... FFS get a grip UK

IMO slowly but surely we'll capture 50% of the worlds COVID19 diagnostic methods and be a £1bn+ company then get taken out by one of the big boys......... lets see