RE: AHT, Bullish Broker Upgrade........6 Dec 2016 18:50
<b><u>HL COMMENT (6 DECEMBER 2016)
Investing for growth</u></b>
Shares in Ashtead rose 2.8% following the release of half year results. The US and UK construction equipment lessor saw underlying revenue increase 14% at constant currency in Q2. Including the impact of lower sterling, revenues rose 33%.
Operating profits rose 13% at constant currency, with the interim dividend rising 19% to 4.75p per share.
<b><i>Our View,
Over 80% of Ashtead's revenues are generated in the US. As a result, weaker sterling and the prospect of increased infrastructure spending under Donald Trump have both reinforced a stellar performance since June, with the shares up almost 60%, although this is not a guide to future performance.
Already Ashtead is befitting from a strong recovery in US construction spending, along with a trend for US firms to rent rather than buy construction equipment. Bolt-on acquisitions, in what remains a fragmented industry, have helped the group grow market share.
Planned capital expenditure for the full year has increased, as it looks to capitalise on the current conditions. However, the markets Ashtead services are notoriously cyclical and in the past the group hasn't been very good at managing the cycle. Ashtead went into the financial crisis laden with debt after splashing $1 billion acquiring another US rental firm just before the crash. When construction markets dried up the share price fell by more than 85%.
Given the opportunity presented by a surge in the US construction market, increased capex seems sensible - although we will be keeping a sharp eye on leverage nonetheless. At the moment this remains well within the groups target range. That suggests Ashtead may just have learned its lessons. Assuming replacement capex remains low, the group should generate significant free cash flow over the next few years to support dividends and earnings-enhancing share buybacks.
The shares currently trade on a price to book of 3.7x - significantly above the long term average of 2.2x. Analysts are forecasting a prospective yield of 1.6% in 2017.
Half year results:
On a constant currency basis revenues for the first half as a whole are up 13%, with earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) also up 13%. The group delivered record EBITDA margins of 49%.
Gains from the disposal of old equipment were £14m lower than a year previously, as a result of a planned reduction in spending on replacing old equipment. However, overall capital expenditure was towards the upper end of the group's expectations. Consequently, the group is now expecting capital investment of £1-1.2bn for the year.
£142m of acquisition activity meant that net debt rose during the half, with fleet investment and lower sterling also playing a part. However, net debt still fell to 1.8 times EBITDA (2015:1.9 times), well within the Ashtead's 1.5-2 times range.
Both th