Member Info for Mhaines06

Ah, we fixed the economy, that's good.

Pleased we no longer have:

AI bubble

Asset bubbles

European war

US government shutdown

Low inflation

Rampant inequality

Governments increasingly anti global trade

Nah, it is a healthy correction. Funny though, funny world.

Above $4000 today.

Can't wait to see production stats, hopefully increasing in-line with expectations. Oil still low (I think) limiting ASIC. Could be some really good figures.

Pleased someone else got addicted to the yellow stuff.

Healthiest addiction I have, probably.

Do any of the 275 messages I missed today explain today's rise, is it linked to any news or just one of those things?

Doesn't do much for the stock in the short term, but in general, if you start literally printing the only currency worth having in a destabilising world, eventually someone will take notice 😂

The UK economy is getting out of control.

Really dangerous position.

Long gold, this is the era of stagflation. This is the era of civil and international unrest. Tell your family you love them and spare a thought for the poor.

Was the presentation limp because they have no good news about Haveiron progress?

I've back of the napkin run some updates and even at the bottom of all their ranges and gold at $3000 they can fund all growth plans with FCF.

Obviously, plenty of reasons more FCF could be generated.

I think a roughly 10% decline to reflect projections and a 10% decline in confidence is what we're seeing play out. Hopefully positive news from other areas over time will remove the confidence penalty and we all know Haveiron is really what will change the production figures.

Those ASIC projections are pretty poor, that could really eat margins.

I think the market reaction is justified if the market is nervous about gold prices, which it is. As well as the risk premium on a faultless CEO has risen slightly.

My hypothesis is that gold will go up or hold, especially with the increased US debt that appears to correlate well. If we look right now, there's basically no market risk and rates remain higher than inflation, yet gold remains above $3300.

So higher ASIC don't matter in the short - medium term.

Hopefully this is a one off reset by Shaun and not the start of long term credibility damage. Hopefully Shaun is setting conservative targets to ensure future surprises are on the positive side.

I was a bit disappointed the production growth wasn't a bit more, only slightly higher than Q1. They'll have to push a bit harder to get to their yearly target of 44koz+ but they seem confident.

Otherwise, as mentioned, all very positive overall.

Trump seems to do all his most volatile activities on the weekends when markets are closed, giving them time to digest.

If I was Iran, I would blockade the straight in mid week for maximum chaos, assuming that's the path they want to take to retaliate

Oil will also surge so I'm not sure it's a major net benefit, as that's a major cost.

Oil surge will cause inflation though, which is good for gold. Bad for most citizens though.

Bit delayed but great to see the CEO buying shares at the current price

SP only matters if you plan to sell the stock.

Otherwise earnings matter. How much you'd be willing to pay for them and whether you believe they can achieve them.

Do you own calculations and relax.

It's helpful to have other opinions but it's not helpful to have madness, panic and conspiracy theories.

The only stories I'm interested in are, gold price opinions (in the realms of reality) and Havieron timelines/grade/production rates and Telfer extension plans. The Aussie listing is nice, might increase the fair PE ratio, but guessing share price is pointless.

My view on the Aussie listing is it'll take the forward P/E from 7 to about 10/12 (After a while, on good news). Confirmation on Telfer continuing during Havieron essentially doubles production (halves the 7 I'm using), that's the big interest for me. Of course gold price dependent.

Can anyone tell me if this tariff pause applies to the fees on Chinese ships landing in America?

I cannot find any mention of it and it seems pointless to reduce fees on goods if there literally are not enough ships that can land in America to deliver them at a cost effective price.

Trumps delivered world peace and prosperity, what do you mean nothing has changed? Hero of our time.

Yeah, or not.

That's quite an impressive quote! Why are these places obsessed with using AI? I thought writing articles was a "fun" job, why automate that?

I use AI quite a bit for different things, both professionally and privately. Researching companies it is probably one of the worst tools to use, it was getting all the basic data wrong at first pass. If you demand it search for the information it is better (the main issue is it's built on old data, so you need to make sure it searches for, rather than generates the information), still not great and the fact you have to check everything makes it kind of pointless.

For quickly summarising RNS it's amazing. I can just dump the text/pdf and tell it to summarise certain key points or say it's not found. Summarising all that boring, yet essential, accounting information for example. You could probably copy and paste an entire website article and get it to summarise it too, or an audio transcript of a town hall.

It's a great tool if used correctly, but it's only a tool. It's not a one button solves everything.

What would you buy if it's not gold?

US companies are missing earnings on account of consumers running out of money. Those stocks are completely detached from economics. US port activity down massively, I imagine that'll cause a huge inflationary spike.

Housing, broadly, is seriously overheating, especially in China. People literally cannot afford to live. A US inflation spike and subsequent interest rates rises on a collapsing economy would be disastrous.

One tiny spark in the middle east and the west will literally crumble with inflation.

Maybe, you could buy bitcoin instead. This actually could have the benefit of being easier to hide than 100 tons of yellow metal.

Realistically Gold profits on the worlds collapse and the world is slowly collapsing. Maybe it goes up, maybe it goes down then up, in the end, it'll be up because no-one is talking about wealth inequality and the collapse of the middle class throughout the West or government debt and the governments inability to actually lead as they are beholden to the owners of the debt. This is extremely destabilising and it's getting worse. If Trump reversed all tariffs tomorrow, nothing will have actually been fixed in the world, we'll still be in a world where tensions and hostilities are rising with and between nations, primarily because quality of life is reducing for the majority of people. (People don't usually vote for change candidates like Trump, or Reform, even labour was just a change vote, if their lives are getting better).

So, long gold and see where we are in a year.

I find it strange US data was below expected, suggesting they may need to cut rates faster and gold goes down.

This would make real rates negative and thus gold more attractive, especially if they haven't actually addressed the inflation issues.

Maybe it's reacting to the US, Ukraine deal, but nothing about that deal suggests the wars over, in fact, it'll probably go on longer as US will continue to supply Ukraine.

There's so many flash points in the world, so much international tension and polarising within countries, pricing in "business as usual" is not sensible in my view.

That's the same conclusion I reached! Amazing!