Member Info for Mhaines06

Came back to see the latest goings on at GGP and Gold.

I see it's gone to ****

The forum that is, no idea about GGP.

I find it odd high inflation is causing a retrace on gold. It's interest rates that matter, how much capacity do they have to raise rates without crushing the fragile economy?

The real rates could go negative which would be very bullish gold.

Markets are pricing in central banks keeping or raising rates and I just don't think they have the capacity to do that. Maybe US with mortgages fixed for long periods but places like the UK for example, it would devastate the working class.

In the 1980 oil crisis gold quadrupled.

Surprised to see the continued fall in gold, although I guess it's being cashed in to support liquidity.

I can't see governments tightening their way out of this through rates as growth has already stalled. Further tightening will cause a recession.

The only obvious outcome I can see is to accept inflation higher than target and higher than interest rates. That's bullish gold.

We're going to have to turn on the QE to keep the economy at least flat lined, which will cause inflation that drove the previous gold bull market.

I don't see how this situation is under control and warrants an extreme pullback - other than a liquidity or dollar bills issue.

I should say a recession feels difficult because there's not much of an economy left to recession. Basically every sector unless it's connected to AI or other wealthy people's fun stuff is already flat lined or in recession. Most of ordinary people's economy isn't even relevant anymore.

Inflation feels more likely, especially another opportunity for price gouging from corporations. They'll turn on the pumps to try to support ordinary people's economy for votes and just continue to pump prime wealthy people.

So long story short, bullish gold mid to long term.

Good points on phases and gold prices.

I would add one crucial issue here is the US will use debt to fund this war. Weakening the value of the dollar further, once the need for dollar oil trades end.

I think the difficulty for markets right now is what to price in. There's no strategy or goal. Even a total collapse of Iran would result in effectively pirates in the straight, unless policed on land.

Then there's central banks actions. Tightening into an oil crisis will create a recession. Too loose and it will create mass inflation.

Trumps created a rather large mess so will be interesting who or how it's cleaned up. Or if he just makes another, bigger mess to cover the last one up, as seems to be his Modus operandi.

I probably wouldn't be complaining about a mild noise inconvenience, I'd be thankful that none hit me. Hope you stay safe.

Depends what OPEC say today to stabilise oil prices for Monday.

I expect, if they can alleviate concerns, oil will go up moderately but largely things will be fine.

It is a bullish gold scenario in my world, however, we all know global markets are a house of cards right now, any shocks are not good. In a market selloff, I'd expect miners to sell off too. If the sell off runs away, which is easily possible, I expect a terrible Monday. Gold may also sell off in short term to cover margin calls, but I would expect it to explode after in this scenario.

Conversely, if oil price rises are moderate, trade and diplomatic relations get a tick worse, then I expect a very bullish gold miner signal by end of the week.

Keep an eye on OPEC and if people believe they can bring that extra production online or not.

Thanks Bamps, great summary!

Apologies to anyone offended by my ramblings or inability to type in a positive tone.

Ha, hopefully not soon!

I personally say pump the SP, because it reminds me that I'm not the hero in this story. I pay a guy to extract as much wealth out of an operation as possible. How much more am I being paid than the actual people doing the mining. How much more is he being paid and is that a fair ratio to his workforce.

I say pump SP, because when a corporation can only stretch to a 2% pay rise because a billionaire in California needs an extra £200 million, it's the truth. The company couldn't possibly make only £x billion profit because the share price would go down, so y people now can't afford a roof over their head. Maybe some might describe that as successful, but I describe it as sad personally. Same with avoiding or minimising tax, it is successful management, but it's a bit sad for the impact it has on society.

So personally when I say it, I'm not implying he should do the nonsense musk pulls, more so to keep me humble. I'm happy for you to call it a successful run company though.

Agreed 96, Shaun's job is to pump the SP. That means consistency, which means an art of sand bagging, pulling forward and other clever tricks to keep that SP, and his bonus rising. He seems like he's got a good track record of it, minus the most recent hiccup.

Do we have an idea of the scale of high grade reserves they can tap into if needed?

Ah thanks hopefully, makes sense what we're talking about now. Seems sensible to me then to absorb that via other means, I don't know exactly as I've never ran a gold mine, but in my line of work, you always have a few things to pull forward or push back for unforeseen circumstances. Certainly a high risk time though, as Bamps alludes to. I wonder if it was related to the COO stepping down - sounds like an operational issue. Also, does this short term issue mean we have longer term issues, 3+ years? That's the kind of investment horizon I'm thinking of at least.

As for you Bamps, don't worry, there's always a few people saying random stuff. They don't have to believe you, but I've always valued your input on the forum, thank you. Haven't ever made a meet with lots of other commitments, so appreciate the time spent to keep posting here occasionally.

So, ignoring all the nice back and forth, what's the issue here at GGP?

They had some shut downs so took grades elsewhere to make up, what's the issue. The value of GGP is Havieron and life extension work. I'm sure they'll sandbag in future too, to create a buffer. Isn't this just good management?

Or do you think they'll permanently struggle to hit targets because they're taking too much from rich areas? But they're drilling new profitable areas so I'm not sure on that?

Woops, anyway, it's not like we resolved any of the underlying issues in the world driving the gold price. E.g. debt, international relations, wealth inequality leading to society collapse etc etc.

Gold rise has attracted the gamblers (sorry traders), so will be a lot more volatile from now on. Overall though, should go up. I mean, it's not like

"if" lol.

When...

Generally speaking, if it goes up against the US$ this means that faith in global economy is reducing. This is bullish gold, regardless of other currencies.

Other currencies may hold on in the short term, but truthfully if the US dollar devalues, the world monetary system devalues in relation to gold.

Remember 2008, that was entirely a US issue that nearly blew up the whole world. Same thing with currency. The US is in an awful financial position, but other currencies like GBP are in equally terrible positions.

Basically, short term may vary, long-term US$ is the quickest snapshot of asset Vs currency valuations.

Calling them communist is a bit of a stretch. Authoritarian, maybe. But really it's an alliance of "not the west", not a particular political alignment - hence it's a pretty fragile group.

Anyway, I don't see Brazil going explicitly down that route right now, it will have a better time playing the US off against the BRICS. So, it'll do better appeasing to investors for now. Although, UK small cap company is probably the safest place to start.

My view on the license is that they're waiting for Serabi to demonstrate they can make good use of the asset.

They wouldn't want gold sat around not being mined effectively, that's tax lost. But Serabi have a good record of legal and growing production so I think it's okay.

I think not providing the license would be short sighted from the government. Maybe someone would do something for individual gain, but then that would be more on the corruption side. I think there's enough illegal mining operations going on they should be worrying about for both private and government reasons that doing something to Serabi would be unnecessary risk for limited gains.

So in short, I think it's more likely than not that the license issue will be resolved. I think everyone has something to gain by solving it, I don't think any party gains by revoking it at this point.

Results look pretty good this morning. Cash flow is crazy at miners right now.

Average realised gold price for period is $1000 below what it is right now as well but still throwing off piles of cash.

Ah, so today we remembered we haven't actually fixed any of the world's issue.

That's good.