Member Info for MH01

Plenty of press 3 weeks ago when Newmont made the announcement. This is the hardest part for us GGP holders, waiting for the news of what happens next.

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/ground-breakers-let-the-feeding-frenzy-begin-as-newmont-puts-for-sale-sign-on-telfer-and-other-gold-scraps/

"Who’s in line for Telfer?

Nearly every gold boss in the country will be tapped on the shoulder and asked in the shady corridors of West Perth who wants to make an offer on Telfer and — the larger prize — its adjacent Havieron discovery in the Paterson Province of central WA.

The mine has been operating for decades but it’s the underground discovery of gold and copper and Havieron — expected to produce in the order of 160,000oz gold per year for nine years once in production — that has eyes turned to the asset.

Operated by Newmont in a 70-30 JV with London-listed and Andrew Forrest backed Greatland Gold, the obvious suitor is its junior JV partner."

Culpepper why so bl00dy negative?

"All I can see it’s a lot of money in acquisition and capex before FCF. As it stands today."

Yes, you need to spend money to make money, business 101.

$1,500USD AISC was an estimate of Telfer + Havieron. We don't know what it is so best to be prudent. Telfer has a high AISC which can be reduced by Havieron's lower AISC.

I have no clue on copper credits. Hence my calculations of output is gold equivalent (gold + copper). Meaning AISC is the cost itself.

Https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=903

I prefer to think that GGP will make the deal happen. We have the 30% of Havieron which helps. The financials stack up as long as the price is reasonable. Free cash flow generated will pay back debts over a couple of years.

Havieron still requires a lot of CAPEX right now without any revenue. Shaun and Team have decades of mining experience so a lot more than us keyboard miners here on LSE. They would be covering all bases. It is a slow game of patience right now for us all. The not knowing is the hard part.

Each day we wake up hoping today is the day GGP announces it is buying the lot, and the share price rockets 🚀

Jerry here’s hoping 🍾🥂

Good find and thanks for sharing. This year could be our year, if GGP can consolidate the Paterson… it would be game changing for GGP. 🤞🤞🤞

So following on what does that mean for share price. Well I’d hope our market cap would match or exceed De Grey for a start. So matching De Grey is about 20p to 25p a share. Exceeding De Grey’s market cap is 25pence and beyond. Surely that’s possible this year if GGP can do the deal and buy “the farm” as Shaun says. Time will tell.

If Jerry is on the money with an estimate AISC of say $1,500USD for a combined Telfer + Havieron then some Free CashFlow ("FCF") calculations based on 350,000 and 400,000 and 450,000 ounces (gold plus copper) per annum.

FCF ranging from $175million USD per annum at the bottom end to $675million USD per annum at the top end. Very exciting!! From this GGP will pay company taxes, bank debt repayments, CAPEX, exploration, dividends, salaries, keep the lights on, etc.

This is not ramping either. This is a sensible FCF calculation based on 3 different gold prices, AISC of $1,500 and 3 different annual production outcomes.

Gold - AISC - Profit - Ounces pa (incl copper) - FCF pa before co. tax, debt, etc

$2,000 $1,500 $500 350,000 $175,000,000 ** BOTTOM **

$2,500 $1,500 $1,000 350,000 $350,000,000

$3,000 $1,500 $1,500 350,000 $525,000,000

Gold - AISC - Profit - Ounces pa (incl copper) - FCF pa before co. tax, debt, etc

$2,000 $1,500 $500 400,000 $200,000,000

$2,500 $1,500 $1,000 400,000 $400,000,000

$3,000 $1,500 $1,500 400,000 $600,000,000

Gold - AISC - Profit - Ounces pa (incl copper) - FCF pa before co. tax, debt, etc

$2,000 $1,500 $500 450,000 $225,000,000

$2,500 $1,500 $1,000 450,000 $450,000,000

$3,000 $1,500 $1,500 450,000 $675,000,000 ** TOP **

Fred ---> Shaun was asked about the aquifer, about Newmont, all sorts during the recent TH. Go listen again.

Yes Jerry, I know. As I said in reply my "production output" is assumed as gold + copper. I have no idea what AISC will be so have one scenario at $1,000 an ounce and another scenario at $1,500. We do not know what a combined Telfer + Havieron AISC will look like. To be conservative take the $1,500 price and outcome range.

I cannot see any reasons for GGP not to go for the lot. Callum is in favour. Shaun is in favour. Most shareholders are in favour. The outcome would be perfect for GGP. Given the cashflow generated it would pay the CAPEX needed for both sites, plus the bank debt.

See pics. https://www.newcrest.com/our-assets/telfer https://operations.newmont.com/australia/telfer

Agree SAS. So $100 (based on $1000 at 10%) times 30% (say 400,000 * 30%) of 120,000 ounces = $12million. Happy days.

SAS - only thing to consider is the current tolling agreement is for 30% of Havieron, so multiply your figures by 30% as what GGP would pay if the JV continued.

For comparison the same calculations with 450,000 ounces production - gold + copper.

FCF ranges from $225million to $900million. Hence why I feel GGP needs to go for it all.... buy Telfer + 70% Havieron + the other Paterson JVs. This also includes the tungsten mine nearby that Newmont owns.

Finance it via debt and the banks will be repaid over say 3 or 4 years given the cashflow. They could even structure the debt say of 7 years and GGP will have more FCF per annum to use for other items. Plenty of scope.

Gold - AISC - Profit - Ounces pa (incl copper) - FCF pa before co. tax, debt, etc

$2,000 $1,000 $1,000 450,000 $450,000,000

$2,500 $1,000 $1,500 450,000 $675,000,000

$3,000 $1,000 $2,000 450,000 $900,000,000

Gold - AISC - Profit - Ounces pa (incl copper) - FCF pa before co. tax, debt, etc

$2,000 $1,500 $500 450,000 $225,000,000

$2,500 $1,500 $1,000 450,000 $450,000,000

$3,000 $1,500 $1,500 450,000 $675,000,000

Ref: copper. I have included it within the gold ounces produced side. Meaning 400,000 gold equivalent ounces which is copper + gold.

Free cash flow ranges by changing the Gold Price and AISC.

Based on 400,000 gold/copper per annum combined.

FCF ranges from $200million to $800million.

Plenty of annual cash to pay off debt, CAPEX, exploration, dividends, expansion.

Gold - AISC - Profit - Ounces pa (incl copper) - FCF pa before co. tax, debt, etc

$2,000 $1,000 $1,000 400,000 $400,000,000

$2,500 $1,000 $1,500 400,000 $600,000,000

$3,000 $1,000 $2,000 400,000 $800,000,000

Gold - AISC - Profit - Ounces pa (incl copper) - FCF pa before co. tax, debt, etc

$2,000 $1,500 $500 400,000 $200,000,000

$2,500 $1,500 $1,000 400,000 $400,000,000

$3,000 $1,500 $1,500 400,000 $600,000,000

As Shaun said in his presentation, Newmont will have 10 of the largest mines globally so they have a lot on their plate already. GGP need to buy it all and be king of the Paterson.