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Good point magnum

Ask him yourself at the TH … there’s a thought !

630 posts in a month… Jesus, go to bed

Interestingly when northern star bought jundee it had a slated 1 year of mine life left (63koz) then then turned it into a 29 year mine life. One of the biggest numbers to come out last night for me was that 1450 aisc and the stockpile. We’ve essentially got it all for free after 15m of processing! That’s mental. I’d been waiting to see what our potential aisc would be as theirs was 2500 odd in the last accounts. The other huge number from last nights “early ncm dfs release” was the 818 or so aisc for hav. The doubled mine life and the 15 years steady state.

I had expected costs since the pfs to take us near or over 1000, another huge positive, not least because we can go after the high grade first. For me another bit of new and potentially amazing info is the blending/supplementing of hav and telfer or. I hadn’t appreciated that without the separate ownership, the dynamic could change so drastically. I also never thought I would be happy with hav first or in 2027 and a DFS 12m away.

But when you put it all together, the raft of news and then asx listing and then DFS is perfect timing, likely for gold too imo. It’s also hugely helpful as the deferred payment is also pushed way out there and has a gold price hurdle. The finger prints of this BOD and team are all over this as some knew from 3 years ago. I always did wonder why barnaba said no first to the role, then did a Uturn over coffee/lunch and joined. What could have changed his mind.

I’m still totally buzzing with this deal. Didn’t see the discount coming tbf. But I believe it will be gone in a month. What will be left is a company I couldn’t ever have predicted when I came onboard. We are about to see it through. In a very accelerated fashion relative to the industry. Now. All that remains is the second half of the lassondre curve. Glad we are all here for it. There is an exciting & fast paced 2 years ahead ,the opposite frankly of this last two years boredom and pain.

A point of discussion at the TH is why 30% discount given the over subscribed shares… a 10% discount still could have achieved the same outcome surely

Too much emotional people here not number crunching.

£2bill market cap is 15p a share once all settled. And if gold hits $3000 and beyond as expected then GGP is leveraged to benefit. Upside is ahead of us.

...Who closed their purchase of their first mine 'Paulsens' in June 2010. You can look up the share price yourself ASX NST.

Share price was around 5 to 8 cents a share in June 2010.

August 2010 9 cents a share.

September 2010 18 cents a share.

Oct 2010 24 cents a share.

Nov 2010 30 cents a share.

December 2010 40 cents a share.

My point is that is took months for the market to appreciate what lay ahead for NST.

Being a gold producer means the copper, silver and gold prices will impact our share price. Imagine when gold exceeds USD$3000 an ounce!

New names I’ve never seen before posting dozens of posts the past 2 days…. Putting shiiit on all shareholders. Says a lot.

.. and rightly so. Lots of anger over a 30% discount needed to get the deal over the line, and fear the share price will not recover.

Once the dust settles and GGP charts its new course as gold miner in 2025, lets see how the share price performs.

At the end of the day it come back to the numbers.... how much profit will GGP earn over the coming years. When will Havieron come online and generate earnings. Yada yada.

GGP has gone from a market cap of peanuts 5+ years ago to now becoming a gold producer. How did anyone expect a deal to be financed? The debt market is providing up to AUD$750mill. The rest has been an equity raise, deferred payment, an equity taken by Newmont.

Also the price of USD$475mill is LESS THAN the Telfer/Hav valuation given to Newmont when they bought Newcrest. So we actually bought it as a good price you look at what the "new GGP" includes.

Agree Spy. I have posted numbers a few times today. Lets see where things are at by Christmas when GGP is fully in charge and the deal is behind us.

Win win

Https://miningaim.co.uk/charles-archer-blog/f/greatland-gold-dissecting-the-deal

"The key point is that you can value 70% of Havieron and all of Telfer using half a dozen different methods, and Greatland has acquired the assets for tens of millions of dollars less than the lowest possible valuation, provided by Samuel Grant. IT’S A FOOKINGG STEAL."

"GGP has also executed a Bank Debt Letter of Support for AU$750 million in proposed banking facilities for the development of Havieron, with Tier-1 lenders ANZ, HSBC and ING Bank."

"GGP currently holds 30% of Havieron and 0% of Telfer and is ‘worth’ £350 million. This would make just 60% of Havieron ‘worth’ £700 million. GGP is buying 70% of Havieron and 100% of Telfer for £363 million, but is paying much of this in shares in itself, and then cash at some later date. MAKE IT MAKE SENSE."

"Havieron with its 8.4 Moz resource is estimated to sustain a:

‘2.8Mtpa mining operation with average annual production of 258koz gold equivalent at a lowest quartile all-in sustaining cost (AISC) globally of US$818/oz in steady state (first 15 years), with a 20-year total mine life.’ AISC of $818 and a gold price of $2,500+ and rising is some profit margin. Let’s say for safety, you’re making $1,500 an ounce in profit and generating 258,000 ounces a year. Anyone got a calculator? THAT IS $387,000,000 A YEAR. "

"...this includes a high confidence 15-month initial Telfer mine plan:

‘total estimated production of 426koz gold equivalent at an estimated AISC of US$1,454/oz from the restart of processing operations at Telfer (expected to occur in late September or October), which has the potential to generate significant near-term cash flow for the Company from Acquisition Completion.’ Let’s say you’re walking away with $1,000 per oz (yes taxes, royalties, blah blah).

426,000 x 1000 = $426,000,000/15 months = $28,400,000 per month of profit — and we all know Havieron is the real prize."

"Just hope Shaun Day gets this over the line quickly, because Newmont investors are going to have questions."

SO IN SUMMARY... INSTANT CASHFLOW FROM TELFER AT SAY USD$28MILL PER MONTH ON AVERAGE.

AND WHEN HAVIERON IS RUNNING WE COULD SEE CASHFLOW OF USD$387MILL PER ANNUM.

The market value of 100% Havieron plus 100% Telfer plus the Antipa interests plus the rest of the tenements is well over £1bill.

The current market cap as per Google shows £270mill. So my maths:

- Market cap needs to rise 4 to 5 fold at least to accommodate to new deal

- Shares on issue will change from 5bill to 13bill, a 2.6 times increase.

- Therefore the current share price is about half of what it should be IMO (new market cap divided 13B shares)

- We should be at least 10p after the deal is done

Https://x.com/paddygall1/status/1833797086606766263

Agree "GGP is now good value with strong growth potential ahead and the risk has reduced."

Market value of Havieron plus Telfer plus Antipa interests plus the rest is over £1bill. Current market cap per Google shows £270mill. So in maths:

- Market cap needs to rise 4 fold

- Shares on issue changing from 5bill to 13bill, 2.6 times increase.

- Current share price is about half of what it should be IMO.... we should be at least 10p after the deal is done

... current market cap is £265million. It will be over £1bill once the deal is done. Just have to wait for it all to settle.

30% Hav was £350mill. 100% = £1.1bill. Plus Telfer and the rest.

“ Before we start talking about GGP like the bastard lovechild of Fortescue and Northern Star, one further note on the financials; the base case notes that $533.9 million of capex will be needed to complete Havieron development — as we know, $498.7 million is available in bank debt finance, leaving circa $30 million to go from working capital and Telfer income.

Again, this debt finance is NOT signed off officially yet, and it may well be expensive.

That’s okay, GGP can afford it. As I understand it, hundreds of thousands of ounces of gold may already be stockpiled.

I am a cautious investor and have not taken the placing; it took me time to understand the investment case — this may dip tomorrow but one hopes the dip will not last long.

Just hope Shaun Day gets this over the line quickly, because Newmont investors are going to have questions.”

“ The same chaps who put together the Havieron details also put together the base case for Telfer; this includes a high confidence 15-month initial Telfer mine plan:

‘total estimated production of 426koz gold equivalent at an estimated AISC of US$1,454/oz from the restart of processing operations at Telfer (expected to occur in late September or October), which has the potential to generate significant near-term cash flow for the Company from Acquisition Completion.’

Let’s say you’re walking away with $1,000 per oz (yes taxes, royalties, blah blah). 426,000 x 1000 = $426,000,000/15 months = $28,400,000 per month of profit — and we all know Havieron is the real prize.

All this means is that further dilution is not going to happen though for clarity, 60% of initial sales from Telfer are subject to hedging to ensure the capital to get Havieron into production is there.”

“ Let’s consider the technicals:

This is a ‘highly accretive acquisition: 1.4x accretion on an attributable Mineral Resources per share of the enlarged Greatland group.’

Havieron with its 8.4 Moz resource is estimated to sustain a:

‘2.8Mtpa mining operation with average annual production of 258koz gold equivalent at a lowest quartile all-in sustaining cost (AISC) globally of US$818/oz in steady state (first 15 years), with a 20-year total mine life.’

AISC of $818 and a gold price of $2,500+ and rising is some profit margin. Let’s say for safety, you’re making $1,500 an ounce in profit and generating 258,000 ounces a year.

Anyone got a calculator?

That’s $387,000,000 a year.

I’m happy to correct that figure if wrong — I am a few glasses deep by now.”