Member Info for meoryou

Zac unfortunately in your time scale oil has been range bound mainly over 100 dollars.So we cannot look to it as the problem.
So 6 month ago profits were less than 3 month ago which will probably be less than the next set. So we cannot look to profits as the problem.
I doubt if it’s the Windfall tax as for BP I think it will be quite a small cost.
What are we left with concerns about our Russian stakes ?
I would be surprised if it that , but it must be something.
The greening either comes good or doesn’t time will tell
40% reduction,some of it is like Iraq and Angola they set up stand alone companies to take it off our book.some is expensive crude like oil sands so this one is not all bad news.
The only think left I think is div policy.
I think we were promised some rise this set of results ( at least 4%) so hopefully they are a bit more generous.
It’s a strange market that does not reward bumper profits.

BP p.l.c. (the "Company") announces that on 22 July 2022 it has purchased, in accordance with the authority granted by shareholders at the 2021 Annual General Meeting of the Company, a total of 4,711,935 of its ordinary shares of $0.25 each ("Shares") on the London Stock Exchange and Cboe (UK) as part of the buyback programme announced on 3 May 2022 (the "Programme") and as detailed below
Highest price paid per Share (pence): 390.4500
Lowest price paid per Share (pence): 380.2000
Volume weighted average price paid per Share (pence): 385.3695

People say buybacks have been a waste.
They have certainly been a big disappointment.
If Buffet or Shell had bought up close to 10% of BP I am sure sp would be higher.
But it’s really difficult to actually say what sp would be without buybacks.
So buybacks have definitely not been a hit so far.
However what if some of the following happened
1)If div were to be reinstated every share bought and cancelled would save twice as much div and double the div pot would cost 10% less than it used to.
Probably sp would increase substantially so the price paid for buybacks would look a bargain.
2) Oil price keeps climbing to at least 150 dollars ,earnings again increase dramatically sp climbs again and once again price paid for buybacks looks a bargain
3) Renewables start making real cash and sp rises to reflect that strategy is working and once again price paid for buybacks looks a bargain.
4) nothing changes and people still say buybacks are a waste.
5) serious recession and sp tumbles and people say told you so buybacks are a waste
What I am saying is it’s too early to judge as there are still ways this could look such a clever strategy.
Eg strategy stays same till 2025 then BOD say ok buybacks going down to 1 billion per year div being fully reinstated plus some more as oil price still high and finances of company are so good.
Then sp rockets and they say look how clever we have been.
Probably some scenario’s I have missed.
I don’t know where we are going but hope it’s going to be positive
All just an opinion and i am sure there are other opinions out there

I look forward to the day these items can be judged same as every other section of BP ( except trading) and hopefully they are big enough earners to produce their own capital to invest soon

Just been doing some reading up on Lightsource BP
The following took my eye

Lightsource bp (LSbp) is a UK-based global leader in solar energy production. In partnership with bp, we have developed solar projects across the globe with a total capacity of 5.4GW since 2010. We deployed solar projects worth $2.8 billion in 2021 alone and – combined with projects currently under development – we aim to provide 25GW of clean renewable energy by 2025, with a focus on developing innovative sites, improving biodiversity, and developing partnerships with organisations to source renewable energy. With over 300 solar farms developed across the UK and many more in the planning phase, Lightsource bp is the largest UK solar developer and a home-grown success story.

I had not realised we had over 300 solar farms already earning in UK alone

Jakers
What I mean is in last quarter the buybacks were front loaded and volume was over 3 times what it has been lately.
That period coincide with the run up to 452 p.
That’s what I hope to see repeat this time.
When daily buyback volume drops I expect sp to peak and I will be selling some, as I am to heavy in BP.
It may be a temporary effect of buyback time will tell

If 452 p was related to the buybacks at very high volume ,and oil stays mainly steady, with the next set of results being better than good, I’m hoping to see 452 again even if only briefly.
If div also increases by some amount as expected( even just 4%) maybe we can briefly be even higher and get a few 52 week highs in.
But one thing I do know is this market never does it easy

BP p.l.c. (the "Company") announces that on 21 July 2022 it has purchased, in accordance with the authority granted by shareholders at the 2021 Annual General Meeting of the Company, a total of 8,500,000 of its ordinary shares of $0.25 each ("Shares") on the London Stock Exchange and Cboe (UK) as part of the buyback programme announced on 3 May 2022 (the "Programme") and as detailed below:
Highest price paid per Share (pence): 393.9500
Lowest price paid per Share (pence): 379.1000
Volume weighted average price paid per Share (pence): 383.2519

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/lng-africa/429253/eiffage-bp-platform-lng/

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/BP./conocophillips-eyes-us-gulf-of-mexico-exit-sources-y58sdh3nrg33oyk.html

Wonder if this will interest BP

The only way we will finally know how much the div drop has held back sp with oil above 100 dollars is when a significant part of it is reinstated.
I have said before that in the 90s a 1 p rise in div resulted in a £1 rise in sp by the same time the next year.
If that maths carried on here you would be talking £6-£7 .
If only
I still would be happy with a bit of both some extra div( more than 4%) and fairly big buybacks till at least £5

oj17
The more you look into it the more confusing it gets.
There is a school of thought that says if you start with a 100 billion company and buy 10 billion worth of shares your capital has decreased by 10 billion as you spent it then cancelled the shares so you are now a 90 billion company with 90 billion worth of shares so no change.
However your earnings per share have gone up and if div pot is same div should go up too.Which might make sp go up.
In our case div has been held back so far so maybe a drag on sp.
It’s hard to argue buybacks has or has not worked.
My take is that apart from the spike to £4.52 most of the buybacks are in the money.So are efficient use of capital.
I did expect so much more from such a huge buyback.
If the market is stupid enough to let this go on for a couple of years at some point the earnings per share will be stupidly high

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/information-for-shareholders/shares-in-issue-and-share-buybacks.html

Not sure if this helps to give you the picture you want

BP p.l.c. (the "Company") announces that on 20 July 2022 it has purchased, in accordance with the authority granted by shareholders at the 2021 Annual General Meeting of the Company, a total of 8,000,000 of its ordinary shares of $0.25 each ("Shares") on the London Stock Exchange and Cboe (UK) as part of the buyback programme announced on 3 May 2022 (the "Programme") and as detailed below:
Highest price paid per Share (pence): 393.6000
Lowest price paid per Share (pence): 386.8500
Volume weighted average price paid per Share (pence): 390.4672

It’s always easier to cut div by 50% than it ever is to reinstate as to get back to where you started you need a 100% rise.
That never looks good despite the fact it’s only taking you back to where you started.
On the other hand in the buybacks every year as you buyback the same number of shares represents a bigger % of a decreasing total number of shares.
So if you buy back 10% one year the next the same number of shares bought back will represent over 11% of shares still left and will increase again the following year as less shares are left.
It sounds like it should be a certain winner, but we have all seen how stubborn this sp is

Bumble
It’s amazing how many companies are doing buybacks just now with little reward for sp.
Lloyds, Kingfisher, Vod, Unilever, BP, to name a few
Think market has just taken a view that it’s what a company does if it’s got no ideas , or nothing better to do with its money.
Think in our case it’s still a no brainier at least till £5, and even after that would be happy to reduce share count every year by at least 1%.

Zac
I wish I knew why we all value BP higher than the market does.
I don’t think it’s just blinkers , there is something more.( it may be the green or the 40% reduction)
For me the buybacks come down to one question.
If you think BP is valued as a company with the profits it will make then no to buybacks.
If you don’t think BP is valued as as a company with the profits it will make then buybacks make sense.
I can find no reason to feel BP is fully valued but thats just my opinion.
I may be in a minority but I will miss your posts when you finally sell up.

Zac I’m only playing devils advocate on this.
But how do we know this buyback has had no effect.
What if half div means half sp so if div half came at sp £4.98 then sp now would be £2.49 we can never be totally sure.( note sp overshot downward due to covid)
I’m sure some of the movement is sp since is oil price , but again we can never be totally sure.
I know I’m being a bit simple with my logic , but if it were true double the div now and sp …….
There are so many variable that make up sp it’s often hard to separate one

BP p.l.c. (the "Company") announces that on 19 July 2022 it has purchased, in accordance with the authority granted by shareholders at the 2021 Annual General Meeting of the Company, a total of 9,059,925 of its ordinary shares of $0.25 each ("Shares") on the London Stock Exchange and Cboe (UK) as part of the buyback programme announced on 3 May 2022 (the "Programme") and as detailed below:
Highest price paid per Share (pence): 388.0000
Lowest price paid per Share (pence): 380.2500
Volume weighted average price paid per Share (pence): 385.3364

TC Energy, the operator of the Keystone Pipeline, declared force majeure on Monday following a power outage in South Dakota, which reduced the flows on the link carrying crude from Canada to the U.S.

TC Energy said in a statement late on Monday that it was made aware of a non-operational incident resulting from third-party damage to the power supply to a facility on the Keystone Pipeline System near Huron, South Dakota. The system continues to operate safely, but it is operating at a reduced rate due to damage to the third-party power utility.

As so much kit is running at nearly flat out these problems keep appearing.
And this heatwave will only make things worse as heat build up always causes operational problems.
All we need now is a bad American Hurricane season