Member Info for meoryou

It feels a little easier to be positive today.
Well at least till lunch time

Charlie I agree with all that yet the sp is lower than 3 months ago.
What does the market like less now than 3 months ago.
Can it only be Recession worries.
We already new about Russia 3 months ago so it’s not that.
I realise you can’t answer either.
I hope there are some answers next week.

Just been giving some more thought.
It would also be possible to use same framework as special div to calculate the amount spent on buybacks each quarter and also the amount of debt retired.
Just imagine the visibility that would give to earnings.
It would still leave massive flexibility to do other things if set up properly

I think it just gives everyone what they want a div that follows oil price and that will always be affordable to BP.
The thing I really like is it’s predictable as the figures are easy to follow.
In the bad times we share the pain, but know in the good times we will get the rewards.

BP have been developing Claire west of Shetland for a while now and even increased their holding in 2018
It’s a massive field but with poor geology that only allowed development with better seismic computer data

BP appears to have dedicated its long-term future to the Sullom Voe terminal, assuaging fears it might cease exporting oil and gasoline to Shetland.The London-listed supermajor has confirmed plans to fund a brand new, 0.8 mile lengthy pipeline between the power and the SIRGE pipeline, which is wired to the Shetland Fuel Plant (SGP).It seems to attract to an in depth prolonged hypothesis on whether or not BP (LON: BP) would proceed to export by way of Shetland, following years of discussions with Sullom Voe operator EnQuest (LON: ENQ).The pipeline would supply a “new connection” between current programs, bolstering “safety of provide” from the west of Shetland, BP stated.In addition to creating an “further long-term export route” for gasoline from the Clair area, it might additionally serve different tasks within the area.A planning utility has been lodged with the Shetland Islands Council by North Sea Midstream Companions (NSMP), which might construct, personal and function the pipeline.The submission additionally covers above floor amenities.Relying on approval time, work on the brand new pipeline might kick off subsequent 12 months – begin up is being focused by the tip of 2024.A spokesman for BP stated: “BP, on behalf of itself and its Clair area co-venturers Shell, Harbour Power and Chevron, can verify plans to fund a brand new gasoline pipeline on Shetland.

That wouldn’t make me unhappy, but if they even told us how and when we would get to 6 p ( as long as it’s reasonably soon ) I would accept.
Right now we don’t know exactly what the strategy leads to .

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-announces-redemption-of-usd-2-85-billion-of-outstanding-notes.html

Indian private sector giant Reliance Industries and UK supermajor BP are nearing the completion phase for their giant MJ deep-water development project on the KG-D6 asset, which is likely to significantly boost gas output from the prized Indian east coast asset.

Announcing its first quarterly results, Reliance commented that the “final offshore subsea production system installation campaign is in progress and expected to be completed” during the ongoing financial quarter (July to September).
The operator said the floating production, storage and offloading vessel destined for the MJ development is “ready for sailaway from South Korea and expected to arrive during this quarter”.

In 2019, Reliance awarded a key contract to South Korea's Samsung Heavy Industries for the sizeable FPSO required for the MJ development.
The double-hulled vessel is built to handle 60,000 barrels per day of liquids and around 12.7 million cubic metres per day of gas, Upstream understands.
The floater is expected to have condensate production capacity of 30,000 bpd and water-handling capacity of at least 20,000 bpd, with the potential for the latter to be increased.
addition to the FPSO commissioning, Reliance said that the “lower and upper well completion campaign has commenced” for the MJ development and offshore hook-up, pre-commissioning and commissioning are expected by the third quarter of the current financial year (between October-December).

Production boost

Reliance and BP are spending about $5 billion on further developing KG-D6 through three different projects, aimed at rejuvenating gas production from the offshore asset.
While the first two developments — R-cluster and Satellite Cluster, have started gas production, MJ is expected to come on stream within months.
Combined gas output from the R-Cluster Satellite Cluster stood at more than 19 MMcmd during the first financial quarter (April-June 2022), recent production data shared by the operator revealed.
Once on stream, MJ is expected to result in average production of 30 MMcmd of gas by 2023 from the KG D6 asset, meeting up to 15% of India’s gas demand.

Zac I can understand why you feel the need to invest in US I can remember the party when DOW hit 10,000 and look where it went after that.
Not sure if it’s just the froth coming out of the market or if there is a lot more pain to come in US ( leaning to the latter) but what do I know
In the same time UK is still playing 6,000-7,000 .
Not sure it’s that’s because BP and Shell have been poor or just a symptom of where whole UK is at moment.
It would be easy to blame Brexit but it’s been going on longer than that whole agreement.
Hopefully it all including BP come good for you as that after all,is why we invest

Cong
Think a bit movement on div ( max rise of 1 p but a bit less would be fine) and a description of the plan for div going forward would help a lot.
Also a bit more about green earnings going forward.
Buyback alone has not got us past £4 .
Think it needs to be a 2 pronged attack.
A bit more on div and massive buybacks, then suddenly maybe the buybacks will look good value

It really does say something about how beaten down the shareholders feel that things are so negative on here in run up to one of the best set of results in BP history.
Maybe next week we get a crumb dropped to us .
One report I read over weekend was excited that we would get div growth of “4%”.
Really think they need to do a bit better than that ,whatever is decided.
The last big strategy was bold .
It’s time for at least a new version of that strategy that lives in $100 oil, and gives a bit more to shareholders.
I have been optimistic but the drift from £4.50s is a big concern.
Between £4 and £4.50 I was starting to think it was finally coming right.
Now it looked like it was a cunning trap.
Still hopeful, but this time they have to deliver.

Zac think you need to chill a little.
We know how you feel about buybacks and there are many on here who agree totally with you.
As far as div goes I have said several times on here in the past I favour a standard div of approx 4 p plus a special div added to this each quarter which is based on the average oil price that quarter so additional part will go up and down according to how much oil price is above some agreed number eg 60 dollar oil.
So if oil is 60 dollars you get 4 p if oil is 100 dollars div rises, but can drop again when oil price drops.
This would be very transparent and would make div always affordable and predictable, and would take political decisions away from the BOD.

Some of the buybacks were Announced as solely to buy back shares issued as Scrip dividend previously when they had been unable to cover all div from profits .
Expecting a high div to be maintained at all times means accepting share dilution or rising debt when profit not high enough to pay for it, and a responsible company repairs the damage to its balance sheet in the good times
Now is a time when div is very affordable and I have stated my position on this often.

Zac
Some of it was because they maintained the div when they could not afford it and issued shares to any shareholders who wanted instead of div to save having to borrow more.
Not trying to say that’s the only reason but when you compare history of div you have to also admit some of the time it was only financed by borrowing or issuing more shares.
This was also done after oil spill as BP had difficulty with cash flow and credit.
Again I’m not saying that is sole reason for share number rise, but it’s certainly a chunk of it.

Zac self financing div rise only means div pot is shared between less shares.
We all know the buyback is costing billions .
Everyone keeps going on about all the buybacks in last 20 years .
Without them the number of shares in issue would be huge.
Yes I know the argument is we would still have all that cash not spent on buybacks, but the BP track record on how it uses that cash does not guarantee it would have been spent wisely , and if it was returned as div there is no way it would have been able to be maintained in the bad years.
And there have been many of them in last 20 years

Think this is one of the times just before results when you are allowed to be a bit optimistic.
BP sp has had few feel good moments lately and some like the run up to over £4.50 were rather short lived.
Up till now 2022 has been the year of trying to break £4

Tinker
Have been enjoying some of your comments think they have been purr- fict
Sorry

Zac on so many levels that statement has wriggle room.
The buybacks have been way more than 1 billion per quarter.
The oil price obviously miles above 60 dollars.
Will they feel adventurous and bump it up a bit more, or will they stay cautious in case of recession.
I think they are a cautious bunch by nature but I’m still hoping for at least a 10% move.
Luckily it’s only a bit over a week till we find out.
Think it’s about time they paid a bit more or described the journey to better div

Hi Selecta
My understanding was that div pot would stay the same and the reduction is share count was expected to be about 4% which meant that this would fund rise at no cost to company.
I also think that share count has reduced more than 4% in last 12 month so hope div rise will be slightly higher to take account of this.