Member Info for meoryou

https://news.cision.com/aker-bp-asa/r/40-years-of-valhall---aiming-for-2060,c3640383

Jwd222
I’m only trying to give balance.
Zac feels buybacks have not been catalyst for sp to move up.
Next year hopefully sp will be no lower than £4 something.
I think next year will be too early for £6 .
All depends how BP weather the recession.
But they are better prepared financially for a recession than at any time I can remember.
First we need to get to £5 which hopefully next set of results may help us to.
The only prediction I will give is at some point in future I expect this share to be £6 or more.
But that is just my opinion

Zac
“What’s the catalyst to drive the share price forward”
I think the 4. things which “ COULD “ do it are.
1). Either a sale of Rosneft or world events changing to allow it back on books or an IPO as an independent business.
Does not look likely in the near term.
2) Div to return to previous level
At present rate of increases it’s still about 2 years away.( including £v$ help)
3) Renewables to start reporting as as separate division and to start to generate cash, so their value can be quantified.
Think this may also be possibly 2 years away.
4) BP to weather next recession better than many expect as earners like oil become safe havens compared to companies which are in serious trouble.
Their balance sheet is as good as it has been in years.
They are all coulds , but they are not just faint wishful thinking, some will definitely happen it’s just time scales again.
I know nothing I say will,make you fall in love with BP again, it’s been to traumatic for that.

Another way to look at it
If every year BP bought back 10% of shares
In 10 years I would have only share left
Earnings per share would be truly amazing, but since in your example the same value would have left business as cancelled shares.
So should that share be worthless or worth about $100 b

Zac
That’s the million dollar question.
When previously we bought shares at £2-£3 the market cap must have been lower.
So those cancelled shares must have had an affect.( yes I know you will claim all rise in sp is due to oil price but who can tell)
I think when they are bought cheap they represent more than the cash spent.
Unfortunately you can only tell if they are bought cheap,with hindsight.
If we can eventually get to over £5 and stay there buyback might be a success.
But again how do you measure buyback success.
You can never tell how far sp would have fallen without buybacks

Think that’s the end of Q3 now and
Brent crude mainly range 90-100 dollars.
WTI crude mainly range 80-90 dollars.
Buybacks a thumping 13 m per day plus this week so that should ultimately help the div calculation ( next year).
Only negative is failing to hold £4.60 but unfortunately we are in good company as I am sure you all know.
Just over a month for the financial people to chew over the numbers.
Hope they have paid off a tonne of debt to keep profits low for the vultures.
Debt repayment might just be the no brainer at the moment.
Over all report
Looking good

Non-Executive Director. Amanda Blanc
Purchase of ordinary shares.
Price(s) ……..and …..volume(s)
£4.389189. /////. 23,500 shares
See RNS today

mole-man
You may be interested in this
https://priceonomics.com/porsche-the-hedge-fund-that-also-made-cars/

Thanks Happy
Your answer builds on mine.
Just to be controversial.
Div is also much more affordable than in previous recessions
Actually has room to move up due to share buybacks

JWD222
No one really knows is the answer.
But after OPEC got it badly wrong last time
I believe they will defend oil price this time, it’s just a matter of what price they defend, but I believe it will be above $80.
The whole Russian thing makes this recession different.
If demand destruction happens and Oil falls to $80 or a little higher, countries will find it easier to boycott Russian oil especially if you add higher shipping costs which already make it less attractive than it was ,even with the discount Russia was offering.
If there is not a huge cost saving on buying Russian oil it becomes easier to boycott and look like you are supporting the wider community.
For those reasons I believe this recession will be different, and BP earning will hold up better than in previous recessions.
Also break even price for BP is significantly lower than in previous recessions.
But they always say this recession will be different.
Just my opinion and it’s not any more likely to be correct than your.

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/reimagining-energy/convenience-news-update.html

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/reimagining-energy/electric-vehicles-update.html

Morning Spights
Looking for a positive opening today to balance the weather heading our way in the next hour.
Onward and Upwards

Spights
Glad to see your positivity.
There is enough Doom and Gloom
Once again a 13 m buyback.
Onward and Upwards.
To £5 and beyond

BP p.l.c. (the "Company") announces that on 29 September 2022 it has purchased, in accordance with the authority granted by shareholders at the 2022 Annual General Meeting of the Company, a total of 13,081,159 of its ordinary shares of $0.25 each ("Shares") on the London Stock Exchange and Cboe (UK) as part of the buyback programme announced on 2 August 2022 (the "Programme") and as detailed below:
Highest price paid per Share (pence): 438.30
Lowest price paid per Share (pence): 426.35
Volume weighted average price paid per Share (pence): 432.3250

JWD222
If when the recession comes OPEC successfully defend 80-90 dollar oil price.
If due to above oil company earnings hold up.
And therefore due to most other asset classes having reduced earnings oil companies become safe havens in all the chaos.
If most of demand destruction happens to Russia.
If all that happens and it’s not impossible then definitely some time next year would seem reasonable.
However Europe needs to get through a tough winter first.
So a really cold winter could cause problems as will the high energy prices currently being experienced.
But in my opinion despite Europe I think BP will weather the next 12 months quite well and I can see £5 something late next year.
But note I am on record expecting £5 this year so what do I know

If you believed in these shares before then nothing has changed except their share price.
Lots of shares are showing large drops , the market is very volatile with a bias downward.
BP I believe in and think their future is very bright.
This may take some time to reflect in share price, but once we have the expected recession and come out the other side I expect BP to start to show long term gains.

Jakers
I agree things just keep getting worse.
Will be glad to get to 2023 as 2022 has been a bit of a stinker.
Although it’s had a few nice things. on a personal level

Jakers
And that’s why they should never be allowed near anything important.
Especially not energy and oil.
If only we could keep them away from money and taxes.
Anyone got a Supermarket they want opened?

Cong all the oils shares have opened a little lower.
Maybe £ weakness?
Just let’s buybacks today start at lower price.
Let’s have another 13m shares please