Member Info for McMuff

“Our chief business officer Simon Bennett and let me tell you he is quite busy. The commercial deals that we’ve spoken about, these are really unlocked by these clinical data and so there are multiple conversations ongoing. Progress is being made on multiple fronts in the pipeline, this is key for myself and the board, to keep this moving. The second of the four priorities is financing, there is a number of questions here to address and we will address them. For now the board is working towards the plans to fund all of that innovation that I mentioned earlier. This is a key priority for myself and the board in the short term and I will reiterate to you, everything is on the table and we are working together with just a short bit of time here to come back to you with some answers to these questions.”

Anything less than a deal and they are categorically FINISHED as far as I’m concerned.

September will be too late imo. There will be likely less than 6 months cash left and that will be jumped on to crash this like never before. It would be irresponsible to leave it that late. There will be another CLN round in the meantime too. The window to fix this is NOW.

“Our chief business officer Simon Bennett and let me tell you he is quite busy. The commercial deals that we’ve spoken about, these are really unlocked by these clinical data and so there are multiple conversations ongoing. Progress is being made on multiple fronts in the pipeline, this is key for myself and the board, to keep this moving. The second of the four priorities is financing, there is a number of questions here to address and we will address them. For now the board is working towards the plans to fund all of that innovation that I mentioned earlier. This is a key priority for myself and the board in the short term and I will reiterate to you, everything is on the table and we are working together with just a short bit of time here to come back to you with some answers to these questions.”

You simply CANNOT say the above, deliver nothing to address financial questions and then deliver a massively diluting fundraiser at circa 50% lower than the last one a year later. You just can’t. Credibility, trust and competence would be irreplaceably destroyed. They would be EGM’d out the door.

They simply HAVE to strike something commercial now. There is no other way. And I disagree on there being no evidence they can strike a deal. The evidence is all around us in countless other examples of deals done at comparative points of progress for lesser assets.

Exactly, just sign a deal for crying out loud. It’s the solution to all of our problems. Bleeding obvious.

well as things stand they will not meet the audit going concern criteria to may 2026. that’s a fact!! so why delay into may, if it only amplifies this issue. i don’t believe for one second the new cfo is going to want to release such a shoddy piece of work. there is a cash injection coming or they are ******* useless basically.

My guess is that’s it’s officially not yet completed but 99% there. Until it’s official, nothing to RNS. All just speculation in my part and I may be dramatically wrong, but I can’t make sense of their decisions in the absence of something commercial being worked on.

Forgot to add..in the mix of all of this they also voluntarily delay the accounts a month putting more pressure on audit sign off FOR NO REASON whatsoever apparently. None of it adds up. Either spectacular incompetence or…

I use the term unthinkable incompetence for the following reasons…

The Launch offers were known as early as September 24, that’s basically 9 months ago now! So they would have had a very clear idea of the cash runway position at that point in time. If the possibility (or appetite) to deal was looking unlikely as a solution at that point in time, the wise thing to do would have been to do a small scale fundraise for say 20m last autumn and try and get it away as close to the last raise price as possible.

Instead we are meant to believe they chose to do nothing, let numerous more cln cycles destroy the SP further, let cash dwindle and then chose to fundraise at 5 year lows around an AGM. Just unthinkably stupid. Hence why I don’t believe this is what is happening…

As members of the BOD is you had to pick a time period to avoid a fundraiser and dilution of shareholders, it would be the 6 weeks leading up to the AGM…the exact time period we are now in. The idea that they are going to do such a thing imminently, the doubling down of what got the last lot fired, at this particular moment in time is totally fanciful. The cash situation here has been clear for many many many months now. They may well be incompetent but they aren’t suicidal.

After the AGM, the fundraiser possibility opens up somewhat but that takes us right into the partnership window they have clearly signposted. Can I see them diluting shareholders and then a month later partnering up, absolutely not - that’s a receipe to getting pitchforked. I think given the context in which the CEO took office, I believe anything other than striking a deal for a non dilution cash injection in this time period right now is unthinkable imo. A deal ticks virtually every box we are crying out for right now - funding, risk reduction, credibility, validation, cln dealt with. It just needs to happen. It’s the key that unlocks everything. I’ve said it repeatedly (and I could well be massively wrong) but I believe they have something coming soon. The incompetence involved with the alternative is unthinkable.

I've been an AVCT shareholder for close to 2.5 years and it feels like sentiment is potentially the worst I've yet seen it. There is a real sense of palpable anger and frustration building. It's totally understandable - they stated over a year ago that sorting and clarifying the financials was a short term priority of the highest order...yet here we are, totally in the dark.

There is the accounts focused session in 2 weeks and more importantly the AGM in circa 6 weeks time I'd estimate, where directors will be up for re-election. Shareholders will have tangible mechanisms shortly to potentially really embarrass and punish them. It's for this reason that it's totally inconcievable that they would be considering a fundraise currently in this environment. Likewise issuing accounts with going concern measures effectively not being met would be shoddy in the extreme (especially for a brand new CFO). These steps would effectively be sucicide. If a dilutive raise is coming, it's much more likely to be post AGM...but I can't see them leaving the cash situation unaddressed that long.

The cash situation has been really easy to forecast and understand for a long period of time. As I said earlier they would have had a really good idea of the Launch proceeds over 8 months ago. So it would be incompentance of the highest magnitude to double down on the mistake that got the last lot fired.

A really facinating few weeks coming up!

That would be an extremely poor approach to take and would fuel uncertainty no end. I’d consider my position in this if they do that. Worst case scenario, this company has circa 7/8 months cash left. 6 months is an absolute red line position. The fuel warning light is on the dash NOW. They need cash RIGHT NOW. They delayed the accounts for a reason. If not then they are just incompetent and need to step aside.

Cash runway Q1 2026…Jan to March 26

Audit going concern sign off to May 26…

Best case 2 months short. Worst case 4 months short.

So unless the auditors are fiddling the numbers or the companies own runway estimates are wrong…

Then a cash inflow IS GOING to happen before 29th May.

Considering the offer values range for Launch were realistically known back in September and therefore the cash situation was easily calculated at that point, this situation would have been clearly known about for a while. So ask yourself these very two simple questions:

Given this situation would they delay the accounts, effectively burning extra cash and increasing the bridging gap to what’s needed without good reason?

Do you think they would leave a highly dilutive fundraiser (the kind that got the last team fired) to one month before the AGM and timed to 5 year low share prices?

If the answer is yes to these questions and it’s another 11th hour panic discount placing, then I wholeheartedly believe we should fire them ASAP and consider our entire investment positions in this. It’s surely inconceivable they could be that bad in my mind however.

So I remain confident we get a positive cash injection shortly.

Official position is cash runway goes to Q1 26. Worst case that’s January, best case March.

So they push the prelims back a month voluntarily, effectively depleting their cash reserves by a further month and pushing the funding envelope increasingly into a time frame of majorly rising cash burn (AVA6103 p1 / AVA6000 p2). Why would they do that?!

For audit sign off they are either worst case 4 months short on cash 8-12 million or best case 2 months 4-6 million. Zero consideration for and ability to serve CLN cash payments in this. Zero.

There is literally 14 trading days left in the month and at an absolute minimum you’d expect a weeks notice. Which leaves a very narrow window of time to rectify this shortfall. We have a near term cash crunch here.

Share price trades at 5 year lows and sentiment is frigid to say the least. AGM probably around 6-7 weeks away. There is now a good historic correlation between science presentations basically totally ignoring the commercials and thereby ironically eroding sentiment more than if they didn’t occur at all. I’ve seen it time and time again.

Given this backdrop the announcement of yet another investor webinar today with very little advance notice, bang in the middle of this cash crunch, that is seemingly yet again focused entirely on the science is beyond bizarre. Just look at the comments on their social content for this announcement to see why…

The timing is frankly odd and so is the nature of its announcement.

They are either:

a) basically trolling investors

b) completely tone deaf and incompetent

c) desperately trying to pump for a emergency placing

d) working round timeframes dictated by other things and are calm of revealing a fix to the cash situation imminently.

History would suggest it’s most likely either B or C. Yet I’m going to stick my neck out and say it’s D. I suspect we’ll know by the end of the week.

My estimates put their cash reserves at somewhere around £23 million currently given the last reported cash position, the Lanch sale and their average burn rate. There’s obviously a decent margin of error here but it’s in this region for sure.

Given prelims have been moved into May the audit sign off will now need to cover a May 2025 to May 2026 time window. The company have advised they have cash to Q1 2026. Furthermore the average burn rate will likely ramp up quite significantly in Q1/Q2 2026 too given signposted P2 progress and AV6103 P1 commencement. Lets crudely assume the next 8 months have an average £2 million a month burn rate and then this ramps up to £3 million for the last 4 months of that period. That equates to at least £28 million needed (I actually think this is a bit light on what will really be required too).

As things stand right at this moment in time, I can’t see how they can obtain an audit sign off as a going concern through to half way through Q2 2026 given their plans. A Coris sale isn’t going to shift the needle sufficiently because given the discount we saw on Launch, id estimate at most £3 million from that.

This is either catastrophic incompetence playing out here and the prelims have been pushed back as they scramble around for a solution… or they were pushed back to accommodate new information which changes the picture. Last year the board took action 2 to 3 months before the same crunch point. Not this time however apparently. Are we meant to believe that this BoD are now going to make bigger screw ups then the mistakes that got the last lot fired a year ago. I feel like something is in the wind.

My prediction- something on the financial front lands very soon, potentially next week because something has to give here. There is a bit of the jigsaw we currently can’t see. Cautiously optimistic for now.

I don’t think it’s dramatic at all. I think it’s reality now. The share price is at 5 year lows, institutional investors are selling, new institutions aren’t buying , directors aren’t buying, zero evidence of commercial progress, CLN dilution is accelerating, cash is running out, CEOs own comms and PR has dried up, chairman who has vanished, CBO who has delivered???, huge unanswered strategic questions, all the usual Rampers have gone silent…. But yeah head in the sand and pretend everything is fine. We obviously need a commercial breakthrough here pronto otherwise this is going to implode further. I’m extremely unhappy and I want change. I believe in the IP but I don’t believe in the people running this anymore. Today’s RNS was an insult and their broken promises need to be held to account. They said that finance was a SHORT TERM priority a YEAR AGO. If they don’t feel threatened by us they’ll continue to take us for fools.

Yeah early data will be available already and I’d say by June time they’ll have a solid set of numbers. This idea that they need to wait till year end of year is total BS

Usual online Rampers all very quiet and have been for some time now too. I do wonder if they are acutely aware of the deal or die reality and have been quietly jumping ship in the hope of jumping back in at cheaper entry. Indicates to me where their confidence sits. Don’t trust any of them imo.

The BoD aren’t going to let cash register drop below six months. So Q1 26 is totally meaningless, real deadline is more like September or October this year. So in the next 3 to 4 months it is quite simple really- a commercial deal for non dilutive cash needs doing or we are all going to be destroyed by a placing. For long term holders with high averages, it’s deal or die imo.

If there is a raise then prepare to be wiped out entirely if the Feb 2024 one is anything to go by. We’d be lucky to get 20p given current position. Commercial deal landing non dilutive cash is the ONLY solution that gives LTHs a fighting chance and that is what we need to demand is delivered pronto enmasse

To blame market volatility is beyond pathetic. They are quite simply liars based on previous CLN RNS statements. Im now convinced we need to get rid of them to turn this around.