Member Info for MB10

“Based on these diversified revenue streams, we have developed baseline forecasts for LVCG for 2022E and onwards. Our revenue forecasts include assumptions for agreed events, license fees and ticket sales.

The upside potential from merchandising and streaming revenues is not yet fully captured in our forecasts. As such we believe these are relatively conservative and that LVCG will deliver strong performance against this base-case forecast model. “

“Assumes that all debt is repaid within 2 years”

SP angel have therefore produced a base revenue in their forecasts, and one for which they will have examined the events etc being out on, and taken account of the various factors and GP. They specifically say that those forecasts are conservative and also say that some expected big ticket revenue generating items are excluded and that they expect that the business will deliver a strong forecast against that.

Add to that the strong cash generation this year and beyond, and this is a massive turnaround. How many aim companies get to the stage of generating revenue never mind an actual profit? Looks to be plenty of scope for upside for us investors.

I challenged the business on why no RNS was released and I got a “the Nomad ate my homework” type excuse, saying that it “wasn’t their news” so no RNS was necessary. They have been badgered by everyone for the long awaited brokers note, it’s the thing that restores the financial guidance and also shows that there has been a change in the financial condition as well as the expectation of their expected financial performance and thus under aim rule 11 should have been an RNS to the wider market. That point landed, so let’s see.

The note itself is a bit sloppy IMO, and I would have liked to see more detail, but the key is that it’s very conservative and that it excludes key revenue generating activity (and all that revenue will hit the bottom line as profit).

They say they have included all the debts and payments in their forecasts, so the StartArt consideration has been taken into account. Look at the cash position in particular over the next 3 years, this is now cash generative and making a growing profit on those conservative figures. So I would challenge the statement that any spare cash will be swallowed up by DC and Ranjit, and it looks like they will easily get through to the end of this year without additional funding.

Cash position

2022E £36,400

2023E £899,400

2024E £2,115,700

2025E £6,003,100

So the brokers note shows that this is already massively undervalued by a factor of more than 5, and there is plenty of upside to come to significantly improve on that forecast.

Agree with the EBITDA vs earnings point. Adjusted EBITDA has its place and can be useful to understand profits growth taking out the investment required for a growing company.

Looks like SPAngel aren’t forecasting much growth in scope of the KPOP festivals beyond moving Madrid to 2 nights. So plenty of scope for bigger growth.

The streaming isn’t included so especially if it’s live could make a difference. We already know that’s frictionless and scaleable and lvcg get circa £10 per stream, so could add to the profits very considerably. That’s one of the reasons we have seen the change to KPOP lux, to enable live streaming. If lux take over Frankfurt next year that would be much better too. Sponsorship will be a big deal too.

Good to see the operating costs being reduced to £3.5m.

I think to swing to a £7m profit this year was always a stretch, and I don’t believe DC gave an actual timeframe for when that would be achieved?

Forecasts are very conservative so understand the “disappointment” but better to be conservative and be able to deliver well ahead of those. There are some very significant omissions on the streaming and sponsorship, so should beat those easily IMO.

Worth noting too they made better progress than I was expecting on paying off loans and the cash position looks good.

Restoration of the financial guidance shows that lvcg are making a big turnaround into profit this year and with significant growth next year. This also marks a change that the Chairman has done what he said he would do in three key areas. 1. Delivered the note in May. 2. Backed up his statement that they will make a profit this year. 3. Backed up his statement of profits bigger than the market cap.

We have also seen an outbreak of either total amnesia as the trolls have totally forgotten all their past trolling and certainly don’t want to admit they were wrong, or the invention of new trolling E.g the clown saying “RF are going to dump their shares” without understanding that RF don’t actually have any shares left. #awkward. But each to their own I suppose, including the random drivel generator who continues to spam the board and generate drivel. Some on these boards are focused on helping fellow investors, some are just focused on trolling and plying their hatred. Anyone new looking in will easily be able to work out who is in which camp.

https://media.umbraco.io/live-company-group/pw3kdkcu/lvcg_31052023-final.pdf

This is a massive turnaround for lvcg which was priced to fail, but worth noting it’s deliberately conservative. Sp angel have an 11p target. Based on the EPS figures in 2024 and using a P/E of 10 that would be 12p and 18p targets. The earnings are shown to grow over 40% from 24 to 25. But streaming, sponsorship and merchandising will add to that, and there might also be growth in the number and scale of the festivals. So plenty of growth opportunities still to come IMO.

https://www.spangel.co.uk/research/

https://*********************/companies/uk/other/live-company-group-plc/research/sp-angel/sp-angel-spec-sits-not-just-a-brick-company-lvcg-ln-/7_2023053104381748199

The long awaited BN is out. Looks deliberately conservative (E.g. streaming and merchandising and sponsorship not yet factored in, nor is title sponsorship for FE). With those in then £2m this year matches my own forecast. Plus there’s the £7m profit in 2025 that’s “bigger than the market cap”. So some credibility for DC restored. Also telegraphing a delay to a Frankfurt, which looks sensible based on how the German promoter are currently managing this, hopefully now with SBS involved we should get better acts and a bigger share of the profit.

Tomorrow we will find out if the Chairman can be trusted to do what he says he will do.

Will the Brokers note be delivered in May? After almost 18 months of kicking that can down the road will this be delivered? It’s key to understanding the investment case, but also key to understanding the turnaround in fortunes. So far that turnaround has been hiding in plain sight.

Will lvcg make a profit? The Chairman is on record as saying he guarantees that lvcg will make a profit this year”.

How big will the profits be? The chairman is on record as saying “profits bigger than the market cap”. Currently £5.6million. My own view is £2m this year and beat that target next year.

If/when that all gets demonstrated tomorrow, there’s going to be an awful lot of humble pie being eaten or some will be crawling back under their rocks.

My own credibility rests on

1. Brokers note being published tomorrow

2. Profits of at least £2million in 2023 and even more in 2024.

If neither is true I’ll refrain from posting again.

“dasalus sorry but this isn't a share I can invest in.”

This is #awkward.

My own figures clearly show that I’m expecting a £2m profit this year and considerably more next year. Based on that (which by the way is really remarkable for any aim company, the majority of which barely make it to the revenue generation stage) and using a forward P/E of just 10 (which is low for the sector) that gives a fully supported share price of 8p on fundamentals , never mind intangibles and future growth. All 4 divisions are in high growth areas.

You are having a laugh simple. Trouble is that amnesia is breaking out again. But no matter how many times you spam the board and try and rewrite history, everyone in here will remember all of you incessant trolling.

You have caller stated you are not invested and that you have no intent of investing, so you only motivation for posting here is trolling pure and simple.

And given that the only people that read these boards are fellow investors, that’s about as low as you can get.

There are only two statements that anyone needs to know from asimpleidiot:

“I'm still not invested”

“dasalus sorry but this isn't a share I can invest in.”

Yet he keeps posting random drivel as well as continuing to demonstrate that he hasn’t got a scooby doo about the P/E formula with his random formula generator.

You simply cannot take the future earnings, divide it by the Number of shares in issue and THEN divide it again by the Earnings per share figure from 2021 to come up with some random number. Only an absolute idiot would say that in the first place, yet alone keep going on and on and on repeating the same utter nonsense.

It puts into effect that age old saying that “you cannot play chess with a pigeon; it knocks the pieces over, craps on the board, and flies back to its flock to claim victory."

Here is the actual calculation.

https://www.stash.com/learn/what-is-a-good-pe-ratio/#:~:text=Typically%2C%20the%20average%20P%2FE,a%20worse%20P%2FE%20ratio.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/070114/what-formula-calculating-earnings-share-eps.asp#:~:text=To%20calculate%20earnings%20per%20share%2C%20take%20a%20company%27s%20net%20income,number%20of%20outstanding%20common%20shares.

To calculate the actual P/E ratio at any given moment in time, you use the formula of dividing the share price by the EPS ratio. You get EPS by dividing the Earnings by the shares in issue.

If LVCG stayed at the current share price 2.2p hence market cap of £5.7 million, yet made a £2 million earnings in 2023, the EPS would be 2/259 = 0.772p the PE ratio would be 2.2/0.772 = 2.8

A P/E ratio of 2.8 is incredibly cheap for any share. That means to get to a more conservative P/E ratio of 10 you would need the market cap to be 3.6 times higher than the current) I.E. 8p a share.

If they make £7 m profit in 2024 thats 27p.

Oh dear, simple is getting irritated. It’s all there in black and white simple when you claimed to be selling your fantasy 4.3% holding. Trouble for you no TR1’s were either declared for your fantasy holding nor for your fantasy selling, which turned out to the Ranjit. So you were caught red handed lying your backside off.

I won’t repeat all your total mongs are there just isn’t enough hours in the day.

Oh and PROFIT means the excess of revenue AFTER expenses have been deducted. It’s really not that difficult to understand. Bu thanks for confirming the fact that a you think the company is vastly undervalued if it does indeed make a £2 million profit.

You continue to prove that you are the genuine bonafide idiot I think you are ;-)

that’s really taking the biscuit simple. the only person here posting false and misleading information is you, constantly spamming the board with your random incorrect formulas and total drivel. by your own admission you are not even invested nor intend to invest. so ******* off and bother another board.

the time for pleasuring yourself will soon be over.

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/idiot

idiot. noun. a stupid person or someone who is behaving in a stupid way

You really can’t make up the drivel that some of the trolls waffle on about. The brokers note has been long awaited on lvcg and has been delayed and delayed. Now they have turned to cast doubt on the “independence” of what is being published in advance of it appearing. What is hilarious is that apparently they alone are pushing against the entire industry that surrounds the financial markets and trying to cast doubt that any research isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.

What is important is that the financial guidance for the company is restored. That’s been lacking for over 4 years since it was withdrawn because of covid. Since then all investors have to go on is what’s been pushed out in the various RNS’, or in interviews by the Chairman or Q&A sessions at investors meets, which so far requires a lot of work pulling out scraps of information and interpretation to make sense of. Over that time the trolls have tried to confuse and obviscate things with innuendo and suggestions of deliberate attempts by the Chairman to set up structures that are not in the interests of the company or shareholders, which despite the ownership structures being on company house for anyone doing a modicum of research, they kept on with their nonsense.

That financial guidance can be restored in a number of ways, and could even be done by the company themselves, but the best way to have it done is to use a broker to publish research that is independent of the company. That gives investors a different view from that published by the company in any forward leading statements in any financial reports and makes out the investment case. Some of those brokers notes (research notes) are done by the house broker, some are done by firms paid to do research, and some are completely independent, but even those are done by brokers that have taken a position (long or short) in some of the stocks that they research (look at Align research for example).

But the key thing is that the guidance is provided not by the company, but a 3rd party (it will be one of the firms at the list below), and that it is backed up by actual research and gives a sound a basis for any future valuation. That forward guidance is going to shock a few, who are willing LVCG to fail IMO.

https://www.lse.co.uk/share-prices/broker-ratings/brokers/

This is the trouble with responding to the uninvested trolls like asimpleidiot with actual facts. What you get is an outbreak of amnesia about their previous posts, and they just keep spamming up the discussion with absolute drivel. Simple has forgotten that he thinks that the bid and ask have nothing to do with the share price, and as for his P/E “calculation” where he literally put forward a random formula to come up with a random number to “support” his argument. This is an argument he repeats in his last post, despite having had it comprehensively explained why he is totally and utterly wrong.

In his post simple also tries to convince everyone that the entire forward valuation industry for the worldwide financial markets is completely wrong, and instead they should be listening to him and his random formula generator and looking backwards in order to forecast forwards. Nice job simple. It’s rare to find a genuine bonifide idiot in the wild.

Oh and unless you have inside information (which I seriously doubt) you have no idea who is doing the brokers note ;-)

Just remember that fantasy 4.3% holding will rise £100,000 for every 1p on the share price.

Market has got lvcg completely wrong imo. It’s expecting it to fail and to make another loss this year. My own calculation shows at least a £2 million profit, which if you use a conservative P/E of just 10 to achieve a valuation for the company gives a share price of 8p. It’s not like anyone is saying that at some distant point in the future lvcg will make a profit, that profit is being predicted to be made this year.

KPOP in Europe in the Times this weekend. Specifically mentions the 3 day festival at the O2 and notes that Europe is the fastest growing market.

“The foreign ministry in Seoul has identified Europe as the fastest-growing market for Korean culture, with a fan base of about 13 million.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jaded-nordic-songwriters-get-their-payday-from-k-pop-8qcmmlbxd?shareToken=9d956dbf412777542ead692525506890

If lvcg make a profit this year and show that they will grow that next year and the year after, that’s jam today, jam tomorrow and jam the year after that too.

And it dosen’t matter how many times asimpleidiot posts, he won’t be able to cover up that he really is an idiot; as well as not having a scooby doo about the real basics of shares (E.g. thinks that the bid and ask have nothing to do with the share price or the spread) but he also has a random formula generator to go along with the random drivel generator.

I always like to have a ready reckoner to help you make decisions, so here are two.

Using a conservative P/E of 10, every £1m in profit would be worth 3.85p on the share price.

Every 1p on the share price, anyone with a fantasy holding of 4.3% would be £100,000 better off.

Lvcg is priced to fail. In addition, short term funding worries has driven the share price down even further. Yet the turnaround is there in plain sight for all to see. The short term facility was to bridge the gap to the profits coming out of the new KPOP festivals. That facility (it was terrible) has been replaced by sticky holders. The expected JL funding gap has also been plugged. KPOP is a completely new business but there was disappointment with the level of profits from Frankfurt last year. There were a load of reasons for that disappointment, but it was mainly down to the introduction of a 2nd day with too many costs and the 2nd day only being half full. But the arrangements for that have been changed for KPOP lux and lvcg now get 100% of the profits, plus the costs are under better control, and quality acts are guaranteed. Madrid looks to be over 90% sold out. The profits from tickets alone from Madrid will be very good, but the wider market hasn’t clocked that at all, mainly because there is no financial guidance and the arrangements haven’t been spelled out simply. In addition, nobody trusts DC to do what he says he will do (for good reason).

But what if the brokers note shows just how much these new divisions are actually worth, and spells out that this will turn around? It gives an independent audit of what the company have been saying. Plus if the profit it shows for Madrid or other KPOP concerts are backed up by figures that the tickets have sold out, then there’s a cross fix on those figures too.

DC has said that the “profits would be bigger than the market cap”. (£7m at the time). What if that is actually true? There’s no way that the market cap would stay at the current level, indeed it would totally shock the market. And in an illiquid share where there’s not much free float, it wont take much to move it. Add to that some punters are so desperate that they are buying total dogs of shares (there’s a long list I can give you) that are in a terrible state, and have no. Prospects, what if a share was rising for an actual valid understandable reason as opposed to some jam tomorrow pipedream? Making a profit this year would be a total gamechanger for lvcg and if there was growth next year and the year after, based on easily understandable value being added, this will attract investment again. DC would go from zero to hero in an instant IMO.

What would you see as positive direction from the BN Knigel?

Just £500,000 in profit this year would be more than sufficient to support the current market cap on a fundamentals basis. (Unless you are asimpleidiot and use some random formula generator instead)