Novec just posted something that no one can disagree with...... I need to lie down as I am in complete shock. Let’s not start a trend here of posting useful information. The point of this board is to create utter confusion :-)
Similar thoughts. My average is just north of 200 and today looks like a bloodbath so potentially best time to top up. My only internal debate is now about survival. If Metro is still here in 12 months then 120p looks incredible value. As of right now, very little impact on P&L for metro due to Covid. If cases spike next 4-6 weeks then it could escape with minimal damage. Of course ..... it could drag on well in to 2020 and 120p is a fond memory.
Flu vs Covid - It’s 0.1 % Vs 2% mortality rate based on the limited data. The second variable is how many people does one carrier spread it to. From memory I think flu is 12 people. Limited data for Covid as of today. If that number begins to rival the flu then yes we have a huge issue.
The flu kills roughly 0.1 % of its hosts...... and that is why it continues to pass it to the next person. It’s goal is to survive and as the US stats show, it is pretty good at it. Low death rate but highly contagious. At the moment, Covid looks less contagious but more deadly. The 4 other previous/ current Covid strains, mutated into something so passive we don’t even report them anymore. The fact is, the Flu will kill more people globally than the new Covid virus.......... unless it mutates into something worse.
Just to add some balance. A virus usually mutates to becomes less deadly. It can’t pass itself on of it kills its host. We already have 4 other Covid based viruses circulating the globe and yet they don’t make the news because they are not sensational enough. Cases will no doubt increase but deaths and severe cases will drop....... thank goodness. Another indicator, is that to date, no child has died. So 80,000 plus cases globally and zero child fatalities. The virus is selective (at the moment) and unfortunately prays on the weak. Our thoughts should be with those impacted by this and less on opportunistic money making.
The majority of people going long (my opinion only) are expecting to see £4.50 again. Dilution would be the major threat. I originally thought by end of March we may see £4 but would be happy to wait a little / a lot longer, as this appears to be a much slower burn.
He appears positive about results day anyway . He made sure to mention that in his official statement. Going on the limited wording and tone of his update; dilution less likely on the cards . Plus ....cash flow ok due to customer number increase over the last period (and future projected via new stores) ....... inevitable cost cutting plans but technology based Vs mass hacking into Ops staff which would be a slower transformation. If they can prove the high street model is working and the profit dip was a one off then they can spin the story well enough to see this steady in the 200’s
Just loaded up at 196. That will be my last ever top up. Sights still firmly on 400p, and for the first time, I think the short squeeze will have to play a part in hitting that. Positive FCA news and average to good results will be required. Leadership team is just noise.
Just got way more interesting. Will hang around here for sure now. Cud with a short move out of nowhere! Call me crazy, but despite the low volumes and fall back to 200, I’m still backing 400p by Q3 2020.
Each to their own but it was always going to be around 190 - 230 before results, so why sell now when you had a good 6 weeks run up to this point to get out. Yes is May drift lower, but I can’t see a huge fundamental change since December and I personally think the risk reward is where is always has been since it hit the 170 mark and if anything, it’s slightly better since the election result.
Having started to buy in sub 450 all the way down to 170 ...... this has felt like the most dismal week yet, despite monthly gains. A RNS at 17:00 would be nice but it’s all about results day now. Can see a nice pop to 260 + if all goes well. If they provide results AND something more spicy like a strategic update involving a JV or buyout then who knows where it could end up. Wake me up in a couple of weeks