Member Info for MaxJH

Hi Woodlands, you seem to post some very balanced content. I blindly bought £20k of these shares a few years ago. As you can imagine I am seriously in the red as a result (you live and learn hopefully!). As somebody who does not really follow the progress of the business when do you think this share will really kick on? 2 years? More? Less? Any wisdom shared very much appreciated, thanks

They (meaning Capita not somebody that has an issue with traditional genders) won’t have a win rate of 60%. They have a qualified unweighted sales pipeline of £16B. Those opportunities will be at different sales stages in the sales cycle and more than likely will have a weighted value (which will change as the opportunity matures or new risks become apparent) typically ranging from 10% for newly qualified opportunities and/or with lots of risk to 90% for more advanced opportunities where for example the contract has been awarded in principle but may be negotiating T&Cs, so a very advanced opportunity could be at sales stage ‘Negotiation’ and weighted at 90%. The weighted pipeline would be the sum of all sales opportunities multiplied by their individual sales stage % weightings so £16B unweighted pipe could be £5.5B weighted pipeline. A very impressive win rate for an unweighted pipeline would be 20% so £3.2B in Total contract value

It was always going to walk back a little following the climbs over the last 6 months, 3 months, 1 week! Those after a fast buck or finally in the green may choose to cash in but it will settle and start to creep back up again. Only major new contract wins, extensions, or positive detail in end of year results will move it significantly in big jumps till H1 results next year. A few on here are too hasty and expect too much too quickly. Monitoring this share daily is not good for your health chaps! Those long termers who can wait another 24 months before cashing in will be the true winners

Simps, heading up a sales team for a software business, I know the difference between revenue and margin but not all may be familiar with the concept of a sales pipeline on this thread. I was responding to Adam’s post where he referred to a scenario where we may win 50% of the declared unweighted pipeline and providing context as to how it is difficult to interpret this without more information as set out in my note. Even without further information, a 1 in 5 win rate of an unweighted pipeline would be very impressive but when this would sit down as actual revenue is hard to predict as some of the very large enterprise opportunities in the pipeline could be over a 2-3 years away. As no information provided as to typical length of sales cycle, I would guess based on experience, 12-24 months for some of the very large multi-million pound deals would be a reasonable assumption.

I am not offering an opinion on the margin and sales revenue forecast in the outlook which I have no reason to doubt, just offering a view on the unweighted pipeline declared.

£16B unweighted pipeline is very encouraging but is unweighted and will be for a range of tenders/ contracts some of which may not actually deliver revenue (if won) for 2-3 years as do not recall the statement confirming for what period the unweighted pipeline referred to. I think it was simply the open pipeline regardless of tender close date/expected contract go live. The weighted pipeline with contract go live dates before the end of 2026 would be a more interesting number for Capita to share. As I say encouraging, but the very unlikely you would expect to win 50% of an unweighted pipeline. I know we do not know Capita’s win rate for each division but if they won 20% of the unweighted pipe that would be impressive

Yet nobody is remotely interested in your view, yet here you are again, sadly, offering it for the millionth time. You really are one of the saddest people, and I worry for your mental health. What is your motivation for contributing every day on a share you are not invested in? Appreciate you probably never leave the house and still live with your mum but please try and find some other purpose for existing.

I hope so, let’s see!

If we can hold £4 today following the TU that is a massive win for me. As previously stated, I do not expect to see us heading towards £5-£6 territory till after H1 results next year

Then why are you here? Seriously, if you are not invested, no-one gives a fig about your views yet you keep chipping in. Please get a life you sad individual and p#ss off somewhere else. I repeat to the board, we all keep the Cabbage/Aim twisted duo relevant if we engage with them. We owe it to ourselves to ignore them or you lower yourself to their childish level

Don’t bite, that’s what the annoying deluded brat craves. You make him feel relevant by responding. If everybody just skipped his posts, totally ignored him and his alter ego, he would eventually go away but no……he gets one of you to bite every time

£14k up from last night before my morning coffee, all fun and games what’s going on at the moment! Am okay if a retrace post TU as long as we are at £7.50 by 2027 TU

I was the same Adam in not being sure about share consolidation as had been burnt before on an investment when this happened, still. deep in the red on that one BTW but for CPI it does appear to have had a neutral effect would be my judgement so far. Great to see the share climbing today but still hugely undervalued at 25p old money. The reaction to the update will be telling, if it holds, it could go again if the positive outlook for H1 is reaffirmed. If it ever gets to £9 over the next 24 months then I would be sitting on £1M in ISAs and pension contributions in Capita so please don’t take my comments as negative Heatseeker as I have more to gain/lose than most. Nobody wants to see the SP climb more than I do but that does not detach me from the reality of the headwinds and challenges we may still encounter on that journey.

Very curious to see how the market reacts to the free cash outflow of circa £70M-£80M. Maybe another opportunity for the board to reaffirm to the markets what they have already told us to expect when the end of year results are presented next year to avoid a disproportionate reaction then. We know it’s coming and all in the master plan but will some get spooked following the December update. I don’t think this will be a good reason for a big drop off but may slow down the acceleration of the SP till H1 results next year. So overall I still think the SP will hold/ continue to rise slowly (all things being equal) but may not see the acceleration through to £6-£7.50 till H2. Obviously BIG contract wins or unexpected bad news would could change my prediction but I, like others, really do think the conversation now is all about the when and not the if with regard to us patient long term investors getting a decent return on our patience.

Trenners, I am in a very similar situation and am completely at ease with transformation. I will give the old board credit for one thing and one thing only, they did an unbelievable job convincing Adolfo to join Capita, yes am sure he is on a promise to make millions if he turns it around but he was exactly what we needed at the time to save this business. This was always going to be a 2-3 year turn around and I have been consistent in all my posts since AH and his team took Capita on. 2027 will be the year of stable growth and dividends. 2026 will see that SP getting back to £5-£6 probably after the H1 results. There will still be bumps and retraces etc but by end of 2027 you will have your £7.50 and I like you, will be retiring on it!

Totally agree Kipper……. And If you engage with Lilly Cabbage you are part of the problem. Lilly has no CPI shares and often will use the board to air political views or start threads on other shares which nobody gives a fig about on this board. Totally ignore him and like all sad lonely deluded attention seekers, he will eventually go away and the board will be so much better for it.

Although it has been called out already and expected , I wonder if some investors will get spooked by the cash out flow of possibly £70-£80k. What is very reassuring is that £55M of that is one off cost reduction costs and £14M for the fine so if they do not repeat then positive cash flow in H1 next year looking very likely

These types of legal firms really are parasites on society encouraging the public to make a claim for distress! Any genuine financial losses fair enough but distress - Get back to ripping tax payers off on Human Rights cases!

Not sure your point. I only contribute if I have a question or something to share. I probably have more invested in Capita shares than 90% of people on here. If your intelligence allows, please do try to tell the difference between a genuine comment asking other ‘adult’ long term investors for their views on a factual cyber attack in the news from yesterday, from the daily childish irrelevant dribble that gets discussed and posted on this board

Truly hoping Capita don’t get dragged into any of the blame game on this. I know Capita do have contractual relationships with Kensington for example but let’s hope it is other IT systems that were hacked. I think the Capita contract is to do with housing management. If anybody knows more, please share

That’s kind of what I said in laymans terms without all the detail 😉