Member Info for MaxJH

Not that it will have any bearing on the outcome, I would much prefer a British firm to win contracts to support our Government than a French company (the incumbent who are throwing their toys out the pram). If Capita were bidding for a French government contract of similar size and profile they would not get a look in and would 100% be awarded to a French company

See Craig’s post re the timelines of the proceedings and here is some more commentary around it

https://www.theregister.com/2026/02/27/sopra_steria_sues_ukgov/

I blame the Green Party 😉

Had to scroll back through 3 pages of the usual irrelevant playground nonsense to get to your meaningful insightful post @Trenners. The delay in this one being called is because the incumbent is trying to sue the government for the award and claiming they broke their own procurement rules. It makes sense that capita won’t call out the deal until they are sure the legal case is not going to be a problem and all (the lawyers) agree is a fair and valid contract award. Worst case scenario is that the procurement process would have to be rerun if the incumbent was successful in their legal challenge. I doubt it will come to that (feels more like desperate sour grapes) unless Sopta Steria have a real strong case, as the government do not want this project delayed any further. Very annoying they have made this challenge as that is some New Business win that Capita should be very proud of and will give the SP a real boost when/if they can call it soon.

That is okay though as the revenue and profit has declined in 2025 vs. 2024 for this division, in fact as stated in the RNS this division was loss making in 2025 compared to generating profit in 2024 so although overall reported revs will be lower as not included in reported results, profit will be better and therefore in support of positive cash flow overall. Not sure how firms get away with not reporting on businesses in exit as still has an impact on ‘real’ cash flow I would have thought but there you go. AH is determ8ned to make sure the reported results reflect what he promised and am confident they will.

It is 100% the CSPS that is holding the SP down. Once the news starts being positive in relation to that contract we will gain traction again and the SP could move quickly. Some investors nervous it will get worse before better so although SP not vulnerable investors are not willing to further to invest right now, some small private investors selling out clearly. Feels like a waiting game. Need that positive statement from AH and/or The Cabinet Office over next few weeks.. The perfect timing would be a further positive statement re the service before results day.

I hope you are right Culley but the message I am also trying to convey is that many of us have have rode this share for over 5 years and if it takes another 9 months to really break through from current undervalued levels I am okay with that. It is still too easily manipulated by the money makers and too fragile to hold when indifferent news comes out. I need it at £6+ for the summer of 2027 and subject to no nuclear F-Ups am very very confident of hitting that conservative price

We would all love that Trenners but I think it may come a little slower than that. It will come but may have to wait till H2 results. I cannot see the CSP challenges being back firmly on track before results day as the size of the backlog is just too big and will take time. A few more New Business wins in addition recently called out big chunky extended/renewed contracts would help. The public focus on the CSPS will slow the SP moving to the levels you forecast that quicklyin my opinion unless there are significant positive statements on the scheme by Capita or The Cabinet Office. The unions, winging members, bias anti Capita media own the narrative right now.

Correction to my typo, I meant £320M or £320,000,000….

AH is not saying that at all. He is saying exactly what he said and fully understands as anyone who understands business that Capita won’t win 100% of an unweighted pipeline. He is making the point that market opportunities have opened up and Capita’s Solutions and new commercial modelling supported by AI in many cases has resulted in them pursuing with interest a £16B pipeline. Again, anyone who works in enterprise sales, will know that some of these opportunities will not progress to final submission stage, some will be lost or abandoned and some will be won. A reasonable rule of thumb would be to 10% win rate of UNWEIGHTED (not to be confused with weighted!) pipeline. The £16B would also be based on TCV (Total Contract Value) so not all NEW revenue won would sit down in the year it is won but from contract commencement over the term of the contract. If Capita won 10% at £1.6B spread over an average initial term of say 5 years that would still be £320,000M additional revenues that would kick in from when these new contracts commence, hopefully some of which would be this FY

In amongst all the incredibly pathetic back and forth tit for tat nonsense on this board you can still find useful insight, healthy opinion and debate. I Called out my concerns re the pension scheme and those concerns are playing out. It’s the narrative not always the facts that can have the most influence on the SP. The good news is a negative story can just as quickly turn around and feed into a great positive story if the Capita PR machine play this right. However, as per my previous posts, the watching world do need to see improvements in relation to the administration of the scheme over the next 6-10 weeks (regardless of who is at fault here). AH may will need to throw money at this and once this becomes tomorrow’s chippy paper then the SP will jump dramatically upwards of 10% just to rebalance before we even consider it under valuation BUT that only happens once the narrative is more positive and worse case, the narrative gets worse before it gets better. This can’t be allowed to drag on for months and we need to see positive statements across Feb and March detailing measurable improvements.

More negative press re the CSPS is destabilising the SP. What does not help is the unions hate the fact the scheme was privatised, don’t really have a great historical relationship with Capita as they would nationalise eveything if it was up to them. They also have a lot of influence over Labour and their MPs. So the noise around the contract gets a lot more press and attention than it warrants. And as ever with politics, the MPs and unions want to blame somebody and hold them to account, the easier option is not to admit to failings in holding the previous supplier to account or the Civil Service’s incompetence during the hand over process, the easy option is to blame the new supplier. As I have previously stated, Capita do need to get a grip of this quite quickly as could harm future new business in public sector and hold the SP back. Would love to see some positive data relating to improved service delivery of the contract published over the next month or two to help with the current (unfair) negative PR aimed at Capita

@MarcusExile So the occasional CPI share related comment justifies your constant attacks on Lily and Aim. Just ignore them if you don’t like what they say. You are like a school bully.

I think this bad week is in the main to do with the reaction to the CSPS which got a lot of negative media coverage. As long as no more bad news on this but stays neutral until it gets better over the coming weeks, then SP should creep back up to £4

@capitalizer, too many immature kids on here who get off on goading each other filling up the board with childish nonsense. They won’t stop sadly.

@trisor https://www.civilservicepensionscheme.org.uk/memberhub/kbarticle/?id=KA-01311

The noise around the CSPS Scheme recently is also not helping the share price push on. The joint statement yesterday I believe was the right thing to do and hopefully the terms agreed allow Capita to charge for the extra resources as the backlog has been inherited from the previous supplier. The key is that this does not drag on for 12 months as the moaning unions and entitled members will bleat on about it and keep it in the news. AF needs to get it under control by March so it does not become a factor that impacts the SP long term or is a negative when pursuing NEW PS Super contracts (£100+).

Been following this board for 4 years and very heavily invested in CPI as a LTH and the board did not use to be like this. You do what you think best but we all know about Lily and Aimless so I do not think anybody with a few brain cells is going to be fooled or influenced by them. You ignore them over a sustained period and they become irrelevant. If you enjoy the games, then that is your choice.

I check the board every few days for useful insight and opinion and it is getting harder and more tedious to review given all the constant childish back and forth with Lilly and Aimless. Those that constantly engage with them are part of the problem. Just ignore them, that is the most effective and meaningful way you can demonstrate your disdain. It is so childish and boring. Ignore them and they will lose their voice and disappear, your engagement makes them relevant!

Back to the SP, I am quite happy where we are and was hoping we would hold around £4 post the trading statement in December which we have. The price may creep up slowly leading up to results day and may backtrack a little following that but am confident we will get very close to/reach £5 by late summer which given where we were not much over £2 12 months ago would be very impressive

But why be greedy. Have a view on what you think the minimum SP will be in say 12 months time and base your decision making on that. So if you think minimum £5 and you would be happy with a 20%+ return over 12 months then buy at £3.80. Don’t be too greedy as it may drop to less than £3.70 but why gamble when you do not have to. If you have any cash kicking about and don’t need it for at least 12 months then I think CPI a risk worth taking to grow your money

I think the noise re the CSP Scheme is partly or possibly the main driver fuelling the SP drop. It will sort it self out but agree with Trenners, for the LTIs, a great time to pick up some more shares at a bargain price. I have always said and will repeat, the time to judge the transformation is late 2027 with the next key milestone indicator being H2 results of this year. It is important they do get this high profile contract on track over the next few months though as is a strong reference (good or bad) if they are to will NEW super contracts in the future with UK public sector