Monday Bounce14 Sep 2020 08:13
Now the dust has settled I feel we are going to see an equally strong bounce here today. The production from a single well is circa 15,000 barrels. Reviewing the presentation slides that they achieved $81.9m revenue from 7 liftings of crude during H1 at an average cost of $30 dollars. Cash cost per barrel was $18. I think in H2 we will see the average price realised from BP at around $38-40 and that should see a significant bump up to revenue - at least another circa $20m. So we should see revenue for H2 at around $100m.
Liquidity position of $106m looks healthy in this climate, as every oil player has booked hefty impairments for the 1st half. Capex has also been curbed, with no need for a further commitment well.
Yes we have had a marked reserves downgrade, but we need to look at this as in where the SP is. So much was priced in before, we are no longer trading circa 50-60p. At 3p this presents a value opportunity and I will be adding again this morning. We saw a number of stops taken out and sell orders filled on Friday. Monday for me could easily see us heading back up again - Brent edging higher too.
This is a takeover target at these levels, taking into account the licences, production, potential and the tax benefit this would offer a bigger outfit.