RE: Yesterdays news - the significant bits.12 Nov 2019 13:38
I would urge everyone to go back and listen to the words of Chris Fraser again following the Question about Govt Support.
He said no active discussions at present, BUT SXX's revised plan took on board some comments following discussions with the Govt. My interpretation is that the risk was deemed too high under the previous arrangement, but putting the new structure in place might bring them back to the table for support of the Deferred Scope phase once a much more significant chunk of the project is derisked.
Sage... I guess we all learn things and come up with new ideas as you go along. It's a shame, but the important thing is that if they can raise the $600m early, it will substantially derisk Stage 2, save hundreds of millions on the total project cost and not result in any significant delays.
- Several hundred million £££s off the final cost after several process efficiencies - TBM going much faster than expected - New phased approach results in no real delay to schedule -Yes, we may need more upfeont for the initial phase, but if that can be sorted, should significantly derisk Phase 2.
And for this strategic investors (plural) are already doing due diligence.
VERY positive update IMHO, but won't rerate to where we were (20p) until we get news of said strategic investors.
The NPV8 for Zinnwald alone is 2-3x as much as the current share price. Mine right next to a booming German EV market.This should be way in excess of a pound on opening tomorrow if there is any justice in this world.
Probably a dumb question, but Peter Secker in the Proactive Investors interview mentioned the intention to list Zinnwald separately.
How is that likely to affect shareholders in BCN? What does that mean in practice?
For simplicity, let's say they value Sonora and Zinnwald equally. Presumably, as Ganfeng also have a direct share in Sonora at project level, other shareholders end up with 4 shares in Sonora for every 5 in Zinnwald (or thereabouts).
Typical response from someone who doesn't understand forestry.
If these managed, working forests were not selling thinnings, residue, diseased trees to the the Biomass industry and only had the construction industry to rely on (Biomass is filling the hole left by the decline of the pulp industry), many of these forests would no longer be run for economic use. Old forests absorb far less CO2 than sustainably managed ones.
That's not even factoring in the potential Climate Change reversing benefits of CCUS (admittedly this will require substantial investment, but who in this country is best placed to be at the forefront of this?)
Face it, we cannot rely on Wind and Solar alone. Batteries are decades away from being economic on an industrial scale and Drax is positioning itself as the company of choice to the Grid for flexible, dispatchable generation.
There's plenty of reasons I can give you for questioning your view. I'm almost tempted not to bother, because I'd love to see you burn, but I'll leave you with just one thing that can stop the drop: Reintroduction of the Capacity Mechanism. Look it up.
Hopefully the 'Sudden Stratospheric Warming' observed in recent days, which could bring a 'Beast from the East 2019' weather front to the UK gives us the help we need. This type of weather pattern was observed last February and preceded the cold spell last March. It blocks the Jet stream and brings colder air from the North/East and could result in a very still (but very cold) winter blocking pattern. Should gives us the window we need.