Member Info for mattlilly

Hope these help subby?

1 Darryl trashed the company...from 40p to 16p by the time he was sacked...

2 The uncertainty caused by the merger and how long it took

3 Unrealistic expectations of a takeover built up by Bob the Bat too soon

4 Steady news on Alpala progress but unsexy

5 Nobody selling but all fully invested so no liquidity

6 No follow through after the $750 million when we were led to believe companies were 'salivating' over a copper offtake

7 Copper relatively weak because of Chniese uncertainty but...

If/when the $900 million is announced that will kick off a SP spike

What we actually have is a shortage of SELLERS...

As I've mentioned before and based on it being my day job as GFD of a quoted plc, the fundamental problem we have is poor liquidity...viz my post on 4 November...

"SOLG has only turned over c6% of its MCap in the last 3 months...BHP 40%...GGP has been running at c25%...ATYM c90%... "

It is self evident that there is no real selling, because the vast majority of shareholders have bought the story and they daren't sell because of FOMO...

E.g. twice in the past I've wolen up to find that the price of my SOLG shares was suddenly at least double what I had paid..

To be a Market Maker you have to guarantee to make a market at all times at the quoted price in 'Market Size' which in Solgold is 150,000 shares...

Anyone with Level 2 can tell us how many MMs there are in SOLG but they only make money when people buy or sell shares...they don't keep warehouses of shares (although sometimes they will know where they can get hold of size)

So in my experience when nothing is happening and certainly when there are negative factors they move the market down until they shake out weak holders or hit stop losses...

So although there are undoubtedly HNW and Institutional buyers of SOLG shares they cannot get the size to make it worthwhile except by pushing up the price significantly and steadily...

In normal circustances they can get shares through equity issues but with $750 million 'banked'and a probable $900 million copper streaming deal on the stocks, SOLG has no need to issue shares...ever again...

Which is why I am trying to persuade Scott/Bob to sell the CGP stake.

Givedn there are at least TEN serious players in the dataroom, I am confident that the stake could 'auction' the shares to a would be predator at a premium to the current SP.

That would have three effects:

1 The share price would break out of its downtrend and return to a steady uptrend towards 14p or more

2 It would spark takeover fever, either suggesting a bid from the buyer or a bidding war if its a new buyer

3 The move up in the SP would shake out people desperate to get out at a higher price and thereby stimulate the liquidity that the instis and HNWs need to build a holding...

Nobody selling so no liquidity so no meaningful buying...

When theres no liquidity MMs steadily push the price down until they find sellers...

Threat of global recession/meltdown as a result of swingeing Trump tariffs...

UK going nowhere...since 2016 (Brexit/Trump) S&P and Nasdaq have massively outperformed FTSE (200/300%)

FTSE AllShare is only 3% higher than 5 years ago (pre COVID)

Copper down 17% since May 22; down 7% in a week; gold down 5% in a week...

Ecuador election concerns starting...only 4 months to go...

Credible concerns that DGR may be a forced seller of 7% SOLG stake...

$750 million secured but hiatus after $900 million expectations built up...

No hint or sign of a bid so market into the long haul until 2026...regular anodyne RNSs to come...

No spare funds so no regional exploration to fire up the SP...

In short, despite Middelkoop, Rule etc saying SOLG is a no brainer theres nothing to see here...

Hi subby....you've obviously missed my recent posts that address your question...(7.71 actually)

I'll repost them now...

Good lord I had forgotten what blue looked like...lets get into the 8s...please...

You should always feel able to do that Mathers...

I started doing it after people accused me of lying about my holdings.

So I try to be as transparent as possible, including when I trade at the margins to improve my average price.

Sadly some people see that as boasting but I want to back up our conviction and commitment

And yes I will admit its bleddy hard seeing the SP drift away, especially as I have friends who have bought in at higher levels...

Always read your posts

Agreed IT...grazie...

You're clearly a paid deramper/shorter...

I only needed to check your last 20 posts...all negative and intended to drive the SP down.

If you own shares here you are certifiable.

If you don't, fick off back under the stone you crept from...

A castiron example of the bitter, twisted, myopic, destructive people who are bringing the UK down.

Bought another 1.956m at 9.69...takes me to 6.4 million at 12.9...

44% increase in holding more than covers the 20% dilution since I bought the initial shares, with plenty of headroom for future issues...

Ho hum...

Surely not long now before BOOM!

But its patently clear we need JV partner(s)

Or...somebody takes us out..?

Agreed Rodney but the FT has the average daily volume at 2.69 million shares which means in a year the turnover would be only 20% of the total MCap

For comparison ATYM and GGP are turning over at least 100& of MCap

Or to put it another way addickt the turnkey solution for my wife's new kitchen means the old stuff is cleared out, all the new units, appliances, lighting, plumbing and decoration are done by the fitter and she walks into a brand spanking new kitchen...

So if we even get as far as delivering a 'turnkey' solution, the buyer of SOLG or Cascabel cab walk in and start full production the day after tey acquire it...

Simples...

C'mon subby...exerising your worst fears...?

Thats simply not going to happen

There are TEN serious players in the dataroom

I just valued SOLG at up to £1/share

BHP have only c10% of the shares...

Do you seriously think Newmont, Jiangxi, Gina, Mitsui and whoever the other players (and evem the likes of Barrick if they're not in the 'room') are going to stand back and let BHP 'swoop' in for say 25p a share...?

Wyloo started the bidding for Noront at 31.5 cents

BHP bid 55 cents for a company where they owned no shares and had been 15 cents only 8 months earlier...

Wyloo eventually blew BHP out with a winning bid of $1.05...

And finally please tell me how SOLG will "go bust"

They already have $750 million to get to commencing to build the mine and another c$900 million copper offtake deal lined up so...

The WORST that can happen is they build the mine and take it to production in a climate of soaring gold and copper prices or...

BHP or Jiangxi or whoever end up paying £1 a share or more if they don't "swoop" with a realistic bid (60/80p) soon...

So...are you a deramper or do you actually own shares?

And if you do own shares why are you shooting yourself in the foot with this scaremongering rubbish.

RICHR says he doesn't believe a word I say but how many other posters on here do as much thoroughly researched analysis AND own 3.1 million shares to back up my positive conclusions>

And no, I'm not overinvested in SOLG because even at current prices thats only c10% of our diversified portfolio...

And not even our largest investment, which is GPM...

The gold offtake deal values 4% of the gold production at $750 million so...

Total gold value = 750/0.04 = $18.75billion

Cross valuing the copper at $18.75bn/31.3 million = $599/oz/2600*4.13*12.4*2205 = $26 billion

So the 'Bid' value of the gross revenues would be $44.75 billion

The total cash production costs are $23,704 billion

The total cash value of the silver sales isc$550 million

So the total 28 year net cashflows are c$21.6 billion or an average of c$770m/year

And therefore the 28 year NPV of the total gold/copper/silver production at a discount rate of 8% using the FNV/Osisko calculation is: $6.72 billion

The Capital costs are $1.55bn Pre and $1.74bn ($2.57bn Post discounted over 5 years at 8%) = c$3.29 billion

So the estimated NPV of Cascabel based on FNV?OSISKO = $6.72-$3.29 = $3.43 billion = 32.72 billion = 88p/share

Now these are rough calculations and I would love somebody to correct me if I'm wrong but...

88p/share or 80p/share (a 'buck') puts a realistic value of Cascabel alone...without attributing any value to Porvenir or the regionals is at least 11 times the current share price.

And thats without Porvenir's 1.4 million tonnes of copper and 1.8 million ounces of gold...

At $0.5/lb and $240 /oz respectively that gives a gross produced value of $1.544bn+$432 million = $1.976 billion

So a total value for SOLG of £1/share would not be unrealistic IMO...

Well said Ned.

The frustration is twofold...one the depleting share price

Two the lack of funds to exploit the regionals. There is a well defined plan showing how these are grouped and I'm not alone in believing there may be several more Alpalas out there...

Catch 22...drilling news from those could spike the price but we haven't go the spare cash to exploit them (including the inherited CGP ones like Bramadeiros)

And if SOLG was bought out now there would be a bunce valuationof them implicit in the takeout price.

Which is why I support what I believe is the core plan:

Sell or J/V Cascabel and thereby release funds to exploit the other gems sitting waiting to be discovered...

Thats a fair observation Magooo ("nothing new here...")

So how can they improve "PR and communication?"

They were doing conferences and video interviews and the price went nowhere

They could not have been more bullish about the FNV/Osisko deal, which had a temporary effect

They have frequently communicated how much interest from serious players but they can't tell us much because NDAs work both ways

They are now publishing a monthly 'company update' and despite the MD&A have given us an up to date summary of the year's progress.

From this its crystal clear what they want/plan to do:

Extend the resource at Cascabel to add incremental value to the NPV/IRR

Fully finance Cascabel and take it through all the processes to the point of commencing construction

Sell Cascabel or J/V to release funds for the 85 other regional projects

And underlying that we cannot doubt they would sell to the highest bidder at the right price but they won't sell us short and the last indication was a starting price of "a buck" i.e. the minimum value for Cascabel alone.

That equates to c80p

So back to the PR/Communication

Unfortunately, while we may as a group have some sway at the AGM etc we are massively outweighed by major, insider and institutional investors, who probably account for 78% (although 16% may be the likes of Halifax, II, etc holding nominee shares for provate investors.

So I am in no doubt we are being told what we are allowed to be told under 'insider' regulation.

Of course the PR/Communication with current and prospective institutions and HNW individuals will be more 'personalised', e.g. Scott referring earlier in the year to 37 such'meetings' in the previous week.

Middelkoop isn't alone in saying Solgold is a 'no brainer' but, far from being 'the biggest takeover story in the City' in late 2021, the market seems to have gone sour because no bid was forthcoming and we are probably a stale story at best.

So we continue to wait for bidder(s) to come off the fence as gold rides high and we get told about the massive impending copper shortage.

But you can't make people bid...

It wouldn't surprise me if the likely suitors have boxed themselves into a corner...the Asset continues to grow in value but nobody wants to be first over...look what happened at Noront...

Because unless they get the first bid right (or a knockout bid), it is likely to be blitzed by counterbids.

Which is of course good for us...and one day we may wake up to either "the company has received an approach that may lead to a bid" or an actual bid or informed speculation...

In any of those scenarios, as happened in Autumn 2020 and Spring 2022when the price surged to 40p plus, 7.53 will be a distant memory...

In the meantime, nobody is selling in any size due to FOMO and most of thise who know how good the story is are fully invested....

So poor liquidity, or chance of issuing equity/selling the CGP shares to remedy that an

I think this is a good and fair summary of what has been achieved in the last year.

Given the lack of funding beyond the ringfenced Cascabel monies, I dont see what more they could do. We would all love more regional exploration and because it's not feasible to issue equity or sell the CGP shares, that isn't going to happen yet. But they have clearly hinted they want to do that.

HOWEVER...there is a biggy in the notes with regard to the exciting Blanca Nieves prospect ...

"These exploration efforts are advancing new target areas toward drill-ready status, highlighting the potential for integration with the Cascabel Project.5."

That not only opens the door to use Cascabel monies to progress Blamnca Nieves but this could also add materially to the financial value of Cascabel...

"

RICHR why are you so offensive calling me a liar?

So quote me just one example of me lying.

The trouble is I know FAR more than you about Solgold, as I can see from your uninformed, unresearched post.