Member Info for mathsprof

I've already made £16k capital gains this tax year on my fairly modest SAR holding. The SP was a mere 0.38p at the start of April. Get the "plain" shares into your trading account, and SAR etc into an ISA, before you make any more gains! Hope Monday isn't too late.

Answer:
Some poor MM (do pity them!) has agreed a large trade at around 1.37p, and now can't find any sellers. They will need to raise bid, but don't really have much room. So its stalemate for the moment.
Expect a decent rise in SP in a little while.

What are they doing? can sell 1m @1.345p but can't even buy 10000. Why not raise the ask?

Oh the joys and memories of the Lizard, Cadgwith in particular.
Best wishes to the family, Jenny!

They're in the middle of an ATM offering of $1b - see info in PRN of 8 October.
That has already had its effect on the SP - see the decline since the original announcement was made. I've dropped my EOY target from £11 to £10 as a result.

SAR holders believe and trust (largely) the company's story of what is happening. They see large potential in getting further deals and have already received first milestone on 737. £1000 invested 10 years ago would now be worth £5000.
VAL is still suffering from the legacy of the previous management. We are not sure if any of the drugs are actually worth more than a few million pounds (at least without a lot more investment). But they might be worth lots. £1000 invested 10 years ago would now be worth £2.40.

I'm equally interested and invested in both. Both have the potential for further good gains this year, but don't expect similar Mcaps.

For those who may have lost track of the warrant position.
The only warrants now remaining under 75p are the remainder of the 13p ones, ie those reported yesterday (1.104m). A possible £143k could come from these.

Patience is what is now required, please.

We are waiting for the equivalent of this document from March 2017, which will clear up most of the currently debated points.
https://www.valirx.com/events/valirx-plc-targeted-anti-cancer-therapies-val201/

Until then, it may be fun speculating, but I prefer now to hold the amount I am comfortable with, having taken some modest profits, and wait until later this quarter for the full results.

decodeds?? I mean decides.

Yes, read it carefully
Its says, £2m cash, and we need to call an EGM before a placing.

Doesn't say no placing. That's what we're meant to imply.
There will be a placing if VAL decodeds to fund PII by itself. This may be unlikely, since it appears there are other prefered options.

inanaco - an extract of one of my posts from yesterday:

"Results confirm that the last 3 years extension of the trial has largely been a waste of time.
It has achieved (presumably similar) results to the earlier ones, with the extra information that the 8mg dose is safe (but no RNS info on the 16mg dose yet)."

The difference from 3 years ago lies in the re-invention of the company which may lead to a properly funded PII trial now. That's why I think the company is worth a lot more than 3 years ago.

VAL have reported a 54.5% success rate on a sample size of 11. Small sample we say. But how much does this matter?
The smallness of the sample can lead to non-significant results and therefore are not much use. A larger sample is always more robust.
In this case, using a simple Binomial model, I have calculated a range of values we can expect from our observation of 6 out of 11 "successes". There is a 95% probabilty that the actual success rate could be anywhere between 25% and 86% . This to me is very encouraging, because, even on our sample of 11 it is likely that a quarter of all patients would respond positively to the treatment, and it may be substanially more.
I look forward to the fuller data analysis, and further progress with 201, 301 and BC201.

P.S. I've added a few more today too.

Correction: Company confirmed £2m in bank. The rest is your conclusion (and mine ....unless they decide to fund new PII trial - unlikely)

He is only posting the facts as he interprets them. Maybe you all disagree. But his posts are consistent and give an explanation of why the SP has dropped today. Results are just not good enough.
His previous views on the 401 results (which I agreed with at the time) have, I believe been borne out with the failure of any actual financial partnership for funding the £20m needed for a pIII trial of 401.

I reserve final judgement on the 201 trial until the fuller results are published, but my preliminary verdict is "Great drug, trial screwed up by old management".

The plan had been to recruit 50.
The big problem was the lack of suitable candidates for the trial, and the inabilty of the old management to expand the trial to other centres as promised.
The trial seems to have been well planned but very badly managed/executed. Hence taking 6+ years and we still need further pII trial.
Yuk.
Still SP of under 50p looks worth a punt.

Yes, I think the whole thread of the 10am large trade has gone.

Not quite where I was expecting.
Results confirm that the last 3 years extension of the trial has largely been a waste of time.
It has achieved (presumably similar) results to the earlier ones, with the extra information that the 8mg dose is safe (but no RNS info on the 16mg dose yet).
So the Mcap of VAL has now reached the previous high, obtained years ago when it was all a big hope with no concrete data. I hope this time £30m is a platform for further growth, rather than a speculative peak.
I thought that results of the type reported might have resulted in a little higher SP (perhaps up to 70p) but we may have to wait a couple of months before this is reached.

read the thread - taraku did actually ask for tips!

Oh dear. When I read Showmedamane's post to steakpie, I thought he was commenting on the eat by date on a Steak pie! The point of course being that eat by dates always include the stated date.

It means a VLTH has just sold his 15625 shares! (Do the maths)